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Researchers have developed a tool that predicts the risk that a person with type 1 diabetes will develop diabetes complications within the next 7 years. The predictive tool assesses risks of major long term complications such as coronary heart disease, stroke, blindness, amputation, kidney failure and death. The tool can predict risks of developing these complications over 3, 5 and 7 year periods. To develop the predictions, the researchers used 7 year data from the EURODIAB Prospective Complications Study. The accuracy of the predictions were then verified by testing how well the prediction worked against data from three other trials which measured type 1 diabetes complication outcomes. The researchers took many factors into account into a prediction tool that relied on five factors: Age (per decade) HbA1c (%) Waist to hip ratio Albumin/creatinine ratio (mg/mmol) HDL-cholesterol (mmol/l) Each of the factors are routinely measured so presents no additional difficulty for doctors and consultants. The researchers note that the tool also has additional application in clinical trials if patients at high risk of developing complications in the near future need to be excluded.
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