Breakdown of Italy’s figures (edited title)

[Roggg]

The co-morbidities in Italy are darn near I'm possible to pull apart and analyze. There's no way to know what was causal and what was not. There's no way to know how much triage bias inflated the mortality rates for co-morbidities.

At the end of the day, Italy is a complete disaster, and a lot of people are dying needlessly. The lessons learned for us should be about preparedness, not necessarily about pre-existing conditions. IMO of course.

 

[Draco16]

Just because 3 times as many people who died had diabetes it doesn't mean that people with diabetes are 3 times as likely to die.

Errr... on that data - admittedly after only 2k deaths in China - it means exactly that (amongst those infected)

No doubt a high percentage of the people that died had poor eyesight (due to their age) but people who wear glasses are not more likely to die.

Well you'd need a cut of the data to show glasses wearers v non-glasses wearers to make this point!

Like on the Chinese data, no doubt a very high proportion of the those victims had Chinese passports - it doesn't follow that people with Chinese passports are more likely to die!!!

 

[urbanracer]

Statistics just love 'em.

99.9% of people who die in road accidents wear underwear...

But what caused the most accidents, the boxers or the Y fronts?

 

[Jaylee]

But what caused the most accidents, the boxers or the Y fronts?

My darker side is interested in the 0.1%

Sleepwalking in the buff on a busy highway or lewd act behind the wheel?

 

[Oldvatr]

I posted these in another thread earlier - the Chinese figures, where diabetics infected have about 2-3x increased risk of death versus all those infected. These Italian numbers look similar.

Something wrong with these infographics. If you assume the 5 Health Conditions are mutually exclusive, then adding the percentages up comes to less than 30% including the 'None; class. So that graph is meaningless. Also what was the total number they are measured against? In the Wuhan repport I saw, the analysis was on only 201 admissions
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2763184

 

[Mr_Pot]

Errr... on that data - admittedly after only 2k deaths in China - it means exactly that (amongst those infected)


Well you'd need a cut of the data to show glasses wearers v non-glasses wearers to make this point!

Like on the Chinese data, no doubt a very high proportion of the those victims had Chinese passports - it doesn't follow that people with Chinese passports are more likely to die!!!

You seem to be agreeing and disagreeing with me in the same post. The basic point is that we don't know if diabetes contributed to the deaths or was just a condition they happened to have.

 

[Draco16]

If you assume the 5 Health Conditions are mutually exclusive, then adding the percentages up comes to less than 30% including the 'None; class. So that graph is meaningless.

They're not meant to add up to 100%! For each condition they are showing deaths / infections.

 

[Mike Sixx]

ROLF.

Ok, got diagnosed 5 months ago. Being told "Diabetes is no longer a death sentence". What are the odds ?
Also diagnosed with high blood pressure. then 9 days ago when there were only 25 cases total in my country (Finland) I hear the company I works for employees diagnosed had been with CORVID-19 in side office 10km away. The company tells "All people that might have had risk of contacting virus have been found out and they have been contacted" at the end of the day I take my laptops with me and notify my boss I am not coming back to office (ever). 2 days ago they tell people in my office now have also been diagnosed CORVID-19 and it had been tracked back to those from the other office visiting our office. Now I heve been feeling feverish (chills, weating), really tired (On Monday I could not get up the bed until 2 in the afternoon) and sore throat, I had a little bit dry cough but not much. The other nigh my GF told I kept her awake coughing all night of which I have no recollection.
I called doctor and they pretty much told me "TS". There are no CORVID-19 test left in country. Not enough even for health care professionals themselves, so I can not get tested.

I know with high blood pressure and diabetes I know I would have a snowballs chance in hell making it through into next year. I was kind of hoping I have had month or two before. Now it is not looking good even making into next month.

I might survive CORVID-19 once, maybe twice but the third time with these odd it sure as hell is going to get me. I have had pneumonia once and it was not too bad case but I remember the feeling of not being to able to properly get air and the feeling of suffocating. Not a good way to go at all, and I might not want to go through that even for chance of surviving it.

Still a small change of this being just a common cold...

 

[Seacrow]

They're not meant to add up to 100%! For each condition they are showing deaths / infections.

Ahhh. So it's not percentage of deaths (which should add to 100, as everybody registered as dying actually died), but number of deaths per infected 100 people in that category/ age group. I was beginning to wonder if there was an 'unknown' category not shown, e.g. 'we don't know how old he was...'.

Thanks.

Hang on, if you're 80+ and catch it, this gives you a real likelihood of dying (15 in every 100 die). That just hit home.

 

[Oldvatr]

You seem to be agreeing and disagreeing with me in the same post. The basic point is that we don't know if diabetes contributed to the deaths or was just a condition they happened to have.

According to the Wuhan Report I just posted, then the main cause of the ARDS and subsequent death was associated with hypertension. Now diabetics also have a common co-morbidity of hypertension,

We know that other Human Coronavirus diseases eg MERS or SARS were strongly linked to the ACE-2 receptor on blood cells, especially in the lung tissue area, and there seems to be a feeling of deja vu with Covid-19 (otherwise known as SARS-COV2) where it seems that hypertension is also the largest risk factor group, So the question we should perhaps be posing is what percentage of diabetics with controlled hypertension die,, compared to their uncontrolled counterparts?

 

[bulkbiker]

this gives you a real likelihood of dying

No
85% don't die... the likelihood of dying is 15%

 

[Draco16]

You seem to be agreeing and disagreeing with me in the same post. The basic point is that we don't know if diabetes contributed to the deaths or was just a condition they happened to have.

I'm not agreeing with you at any point.

Death rates are clearly higher amongst those who have diabetes! c7% v c2.5%.

Where am I agreeing with you?

Another illustration: 99.9% of them probably had Chinese names. It doesn't follow that people with chinese names are more likely to die.

To help you with the stats:
If 80% of them wore glasses. Then IT IS true to say that more people who wore glasses died.
IT IS NOT true to say that people who wear glasses are MORE likely to die
For that you would need these data points
a) Deaths amongst patients who wear glasses / Infected patients who wear glasses
b) Deaths amongst patients who do not wear glasses / Infected patients who do not wear glasses
If % a > b then only then would it be true to say that infected patients who wear glasses are more likely to die

 

[Jaylee]

ROLF.

Ok, got diagnosed 5 months ago. Being told "Diabetes is no longer a death sentence". What are the odds ?
Also diagnosed with high blood pressure. then 9 days ago when there were only 25 cases total in my country (Finland) I hear the company I works for employees diagnosed had been with CORVID-19 in side office 10km away. The company tells "All people that might have had risk of contacting virus have been found out and they have been contacted" at the end of the day I take my laptops with me and notify my boss I am not coming back to office (ever). 2 days ago they tell people in my office now have also been diagnosed CORVID-19 and it had been tracked back to those from the other office visiting our office. Now I heve been feeling feverish (chills, weating), really tired (On Monday I could not get up the bed until 2 in the afternoon) and sore throat, I had a little bit dry cough but not much. The other nigh my GF told I kept her awake coughing all night of which I have no recollection.
I called doctor and they pretty much told me "TS". There are no CORVID-19 test left in country. Not enough even for health care professionals themselves, so I can not get tested.

I know with high blood pressure and diabetes I know I would have a snowballs chance in hell making it through into next year. I was kind of hoping I have had month or two before. Now it is not looking good even making into next month.

I might survive CORVID-19 once, maybe twice but the third time with these odd it sure as hell is going to get me. I have had pneumonia once and it was not too bad case but I remember the feeling of not being to able to properly get air and the feeling of suffocating. Not a good way to go at all, and I might not want to go through that even for chance of surviving it.

Still a small change of this being just a common cold...

Hi,

I have nothing to add to this my friend, other than my best wishes & the hopes it is just a common cold...

 

[Jaylee]

I'm not agreeing with you at any point.

Death rates are clearly higher amongst those who have diabetes! c7% v c2.5%.

Where am I agreeing with you?

Another illustration: 99.9% of them probably had Chinese names. It doesn't follow that people with chinese names are more likely to die.

To help you with the stats:
If 80% of them wore glasses. Then IT IS true to say that more people who wore glasses died.
IT IS NOT true to say that people who wear glasses are MORE likely to die
For that you would need these data points
a) Deaths amongst patients who wear glasses / Infected patients who wear glasses
b) Deaths amongst patients who do not wear glasses / Infected patients who do not wear glasses
If % a > b then only then would it be true to say that infected patients who wear glasses are more likely to die

So I take my glasses off, I lower the risk of mortality if contracting COVID 19.
However increase the risk of causing an RTA.

 

[kev-w]

I'm not agreeing with you at any point.

Death rates are clearly higher amongst those who have diabetes! c7% v c2.5%.

Where am I agreeing with you?

Another illustration: 99.9% of them probably had Chinese names. It doesn't follow that people with chinese names are more likely to die.

To help you with the stats:
If 80% of them wore glasses. Then IT IS true to say that more people who wore glasses died.
IT IS NOT true to say that people who wear glasses are MORE likely to die
For that you would need these data points
a) Deaths amongst patients who wear glasses / Infected patients who wear glasses
b) Deaths amongst patients who do not wear glasses / Infected patients who do not wear glasses
If % a > b then only then would it be true to say that infected patients who wear glasses are more likely to die

But what if you take your glasses off?

 

[Draco16]

I think what tonight teaches us is that if your self isolation consists of taking your glasses off, putting your underwear on your head, driving around while attempting to read the beginners guide to stats, then the probability of death in a RTA is significantly higher then contracting and expiring from COVID-19.

 

[Jaylee]

I think what tonight teaches us is that if your self isolation consists of taking your glasses off, putting your underwear on your head, driving around while attempting to read the beginners guide to stats, then the probability of death in a RTA is significantly higher then contracting and expiring from COVID-19.

Your forgetting taking the top down on the convertible, in order to witness some marvellous meteorological events..

 

[SaskiaKC]

But what caused the most accidents, the boxers or the Y fronts?

How good to know that women don't cause road accidents!

 

[HSSS]

https://apple.news/Apq49T88-S5CbATiR_T2Z-w

The telegraph think it’s demographics, a different way of recording deaths to other countries it is being compared to as the biggest reasons why Italy have such high figures. This is also assuming we have all the numbers accurately from China of course if we are using them as the basis of comparison

 

[SaskiaKC]

I hear the following statement on TV every day. Usually several times a day. It is included in every TV commercial for prescription drugs. And today, for the first time, it really registered with me, and I thought of this thread.

"[Insert name of prescription drug] may increase your risk of infections or lower your ability to fight them."

I wonder how many of the people who have died in this epidemic were put at risk of infection by the very drugs their own doctors prescribed. Especially living in a society (in this case the US) where the drugs are being promoted directly to consumers with the encouragement to "ask your doctor if [insert prescription drug name] can work for you."
IME a lot of elderly people take a lot of prescription drugs.