COVID 2019 Comorbidity with Diabetes

[lindisfel]

There are antibody tests going on in a number of countries. It is the way of getting some insight into how many of the population have been affected.
The fact that some experts feel it has only been a few % of the population is cause for concern for the future unless we get a different answer from sample testing.
I think the herd immunity bird is unlikely to rise again from its ashes as a new phoenix.
D.

 

[bulkbiker]

There are antibody tests going on in a number of countries. It is the way of getting some insight into how many of the population have been affected.
The fact that some experts feel it has only been a few % of the population is cause for concern for the future unless we get a different answer from sample testing.
I think the herd immunity bird is unlikely to rise again from its ashes as a new phoenix.
D.

Although there may be some light on the horizon..

 

[lindisfel]

Although there may be some light on the horizon..

He lost me there bulkbiker,
(He looks like a man travelling fast trying to leave his hair behind! )
Say we find 5% antibodies in the population and that represents the general population in the uk. Now if the deaths reach 25,000 for 5% of total population, it doesn't bode well for future waves of covid19 without a vaccine or antiviral.
If each successive wave takes 25,000 it would be horrific.

Now if they test known pandemic diagnosed subjects for antibodies and only 10% have them that could be good or bad for the future of immunity or deaths per million population.
D.

 

[bulkbiker]

He lost me there bulkbiker,
(He looks like a man travelling fast trying to leave his hair behind! )
Say we find 5% antibodies in the population and that represents the general population in the uk. Now if the deaths reach 25,000 for 5% of total population, it doesn't bode well for future waves of covid19 without a vaccine or antiviral.
If each successive wave takes 25,000 it would be horrific.

Now if they test known pandemic diagnosed subjects for antibodies and only 10% have them that could be good or bad for the future of immunity or deaths per million population.
D.

He's saying that more people have been infected with a far lower death rate than expected.. down to influenza levels.

So the IFR (Infection fatality Rate) i.e. how many people die is far lower than previously thought.. the disease isn't the "killer" that the MSM is portraying it to be.

So far this year (Jan to now) it has killed about the same number (possibly slightly more) of people who die every single day anyway. (about 156k people die globally every day on average).

 

[Mr_Pot]

He lost me there bulkbiker,
(He looks like a man travelling fast trying to leave his hair behind! )
Say we find 5% antibodies in the population and that represents the general population in the uk. Now if the deaths reach 25,000 for 5% of total population, it doesn't bode well for future waves of covid19 without a vaccine or antiviral.
If each successive wave takes 25,000 it would be horrific.

Now if they test known pandemic diagnosed subjects for antibodies and only 10% have them that could be good or bad for the future of immunity or deaths per million population.
D.

I had to watch this a couple of times to see what he was getting at, also you need to know that the population of Santa Clara County is 1.928 million.
From his sample 2.5 - 4.5% had the antibodies so that means that for the whole of Santa Clara 41,000 - 81,000 will have had the disease. The reported number of cases was 956 which is 50 - 85 times less than the true figure so the chance of dying is 50 - 85 times less than was originally thought.

 

[urbanracer]

I had to watch this a couple of times to see what he was getting at, also you need to know that the population of Santa Clara County is 1.928 million.
From his sample 2.5 - 4.5% had the antibodies so that means that for the whole of Santa Clara 41,000 - 81,000 will have had the disease. The reported number of cases was 956 which is 50 - 85 times less than the true figure so the chance of dying is 50 - 85 times less than was originally thought.

But hang on a mo - he states that 3300 people came forward for testing. Why then have they "estimated" from this test sample that between 2.5 and 4.2 % of the population has antibodies. If they tested 3300 people then there must be a finite number of positive results. What percentage of the test sample actually had antibodies ? How was this extrapolated out to the numbers he's giving. Don't get it.

 

[Brunneria]

...and the number who are asymptomatic, or have mild symptoms, is far, far greater than originally thought.

hope this is the case.
Will wait and see, without getting my hopes up too high.

 

[bulkbiker]

But hang on a mo - he states that 3300 people came forward for testing. Why then have they "estimated" from this test sample that between 2.5 and 4.2 % of the population has antibodies. If they tested 3300 people then there must be a finite number of positive results. What percentage of the test sample actually had antibodies ? How was this extrapolated out to the numbers he's giving. Don't get it.

Could be that the antibody test itself has false positives and negatives (highly likely) so there will be a range of suspected people who have had it? Thus the percentage rather than specific number?

 

[urbanracer]

...and the number who are asymptomatic, or have mild symptoms, is far, far greater than originally thought.

hope this is the case.
Will wait and see, without getting my hopes up too high.

There seem to be a lot of researchers saying this at the moment so yes, "fingers crossed".

 

[Brunneria]

Yes.
And it makes me slightly-speculatively-doubtfully-hopeful that I may have already had it.
- weird sore throat with a week of follow on coughing and a final 2 hr burst of sore throat and stuffed up nose on day 9
It started the weekend before Lockdown, 4 days after sitting for an hour in the vet’s crowded waiting room and 2 days after a haircut.
I can only (desperately) hope that if it WAS Covid-19 then I didn’t pass it on, in either of those places, days before I became even slightly symptomatic.

 

[Mr_Pot]

But hang on a mo - he states that 3300 people came forward for testing. Why then have they "estimated" from this test sample that between 2.5 and 4.2 % of the population has antibodies. If they tested 3300 people then there must be a finite number of positive results. What percentage of the test sample actually had antibodies ? How was this extrapolated out to the numbers he's giving. Don't get it.

2.5% to 4.2% is presumably the range of possible error.
2.5% of 1.928M = 41,000
4.2% of 1.928M = 81,000

 

[lindisfel]

It depends on the age and state of health of the person with the virus. According to John Campbell it was high with the American young naval guys on their ship that docked in Guam.
It would be a vain hope at my age.
D.

...and the number who are asymptomatic, or have mild symptoms, is far, far greater than originally thought.

hope this is the case.
Will wait and see, without getting my hopes up too high.

 

[lindisfel]

Its not reliable then, and the result could be rubbish.

Could be that the antibody test itself has false positives and negatives (highly likely) so there will be a range of suspected people who have had it? Thus the percentage rather than specific number?

 

[bulkbiker]

Its not reliable then, and the result could be rubbish.

Unfortunately as we know only too well very little in medicine is totally "reliable"

 

[urbanracer]

2.5% to 4.2% is presumably the range of possible error.
2.5% of 1.928M = 41,000
4.2% of 1.928M = 81,000

Yes I understand that bit - what I am not understanding is a finite number of tests yielding a vague test result.

 

[Brunneria]

It depends on the age and state of health of the person with the virus. According to John Campbell it was high with the American young naval guys on their ship that docked in Guam.
It would be a vain hope at my age.
D.

Fortunately, vain hopes do pay off - and apparently far more often than expected.
I expect we have all seen the joyful news stories of people in their 90s and even over 100 years old who have been discharged from hospital after COVID-19, well on the way to recovery.

And several members here have gone through what seems almost certainly to be COVID-19 with no hospitalisation, and are now recovering - some with some pretty serious co-morbidities.

Such good news should give us all hope.

 

[lindisfel]

Hope springs eternal, if we have hope we can cope!

Fortunately, vain hopes do pay off - and apparently far more often than expected.
I expect we have all seen the joyful news stories of people in their 90s and even over 100 years old who have been discharged from hospital after COVID-19, well on the way to recovery.

And several members here have gone through what seems almost certainly to be COVID-19 with no hospitalisation, and are now recovering - some with some pretty serious co-morbidities.

Such good news should give us all hope.

 

[Tedrick69]

Dr Been on YouTube is doing 2 very informative videos for Diabetics. The first one, link below, is for Type 2 and the second one is about Type 1 which will come later.

 

[Mr_Pot]

Yes I understand that bit - what I am not understanding is a finite number of tests yielding a vague test result.

The tests aren't accurate. If 110 people had antibodies, adding 25% for false negatives gives 137, deducting 25% for false positives gives 82. 82/3,300 is 2.5% and 137/3,300 is 4.2%
25% accuracy may be valid for the purpose of this investigation but it will need to be much more accurate for mass testing. If someone is given a false positive they will assume they are immune when they are not, with possibly fatal consequences.

 

[Deleted member 308541]

Good and bad news here in Australia today.

Virgin Australia has gone down the gurgler.

Thousands of Australian jobs hang in the balance as Virgin Australia prepares to go into voluntary administration following the Morrison government’s rejection of an appeal to help keep the airline afloat.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...-to-go-into-voluntary-administration/12166802

It's now official.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200421/pdf/44h3kq7kcb12fl.pdf

Queensland Schools out for summer yesterday and today...

Queensland home schooling website glitch blocks students on first day of online learning

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-20/queensland-home-schooling-technical-issues/12163934

Good news here.

20 April 2020
Queensland has no new confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) today.
The current state total remains at 1,019.

https://www.health.qld.gov.au/news-...-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-update-2020-04-20

Edit: Added ASX report.