Interesting piece by Dr Kendrick on The Numbers and The Science

[bulkbiker]

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/05/19/the-mad-modellers-of-lockdown/

Interesting piece by Dr Kendrick on "the numbers" and "the science"


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Ed by moderator to explain that posts #1-6 of this thread started off elsewhere but were moved here because the discussion merited a thread to itself. Regards, Brunneria

 

[Mr_Pot]

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/05/19/the-mad-modellers-of-lockdown/

Interesting piece by Dr Kendrick on "the numbers" and "the science"

More hindsight and self praise by the uninvolved.

 

[bulkbiker]

More hindsight and self praise by the uninvolved.

I think you'll find that Dr K has been very involved in looking after his care home patients and signing death certificates so maybe more involved than most?

 

[Mr_Pot]

I think you'll find that Dr K has been very involved in looking after his care home patients and signing death certificates so maybe more involved than most?

But not involved in prediction or advising the government how to act. More difficult than making disparaging comments after the event.

 

[bulkbiker]

But not involved in prediction or advising the government how to act. More difficult than making disparaging comments after the event.

No Imperial college seemed to have that one tied up.. worse luck for the nation!

 

[Mr_Pot]

I am in no position to be involved in either prediction or advice. I am surprised that the level of the anger towards the government is so low and find it nauseating when ministers appear on radio / television congratulating themselves on what a good job they have done and are continuing to....
Care homes
Testing
Following the Science.. really does my head in.

Even if they are not doing a good job and are deserving of criticism how much worse would it have been if the death toll was much higher, the NHS overwhelmed and their excuse was that they were relying on a guess by one GP with no expertise in epidemiology.

 

[Max68]

"His prediction shaped the response of many countries around the world"

Not praising or criticising anyone but the comment above near the start of the article isn't quite right though is it? The UK and US were one of the last to go into lockdown so Ferguson can't have shaped the response from most countries?

 

[Tophat1900]

The fact Pro Ferguson won't release the details for his prediction model just shows to me that he can't be trusted. And if the model keeps fluctuating around all over the place by huge margins, then how can you take him seriously?

 

[Jo_the_boat]

I wrote a post in reply saying that, despite him having penned some insightful articles in the past, I was basically disappointed that he was just another in a loooong line of commentators highlighting problems we know about already.
The skill is not in regurgitating the already known but coming up with suggestions on how to actually improve things.
I am a fan of his, just not on this occasion.

 

[DavidGrahamJones]

"His prediction shaped the response of many countries around the world"

Not praising or criticising anyone but the comment above near the start of the article isn't quite right though is it?

That's what I was thinking.

Edit: I read it a second time and some of it is quite amusing. If there is any science I don't think the government is following it. I've read enough research papers about wearing masks to realise that for every paper recommending the wearing of masks, there's another one suggesting that it's a waste of time. Another topic discussed at length elsewhere.

It's difficult to compare with other countries because not all countries have the same demographics