To go back to the original question; I am becoming increasingly convinced that my waking blood sugar has a lot to do with my total carb intake and activity level the day before. I think I need more basal insulin when I've had more carbs/less exercise, and because I don't adjust my basal, since I'm on lantus and adjustments don't work that well, I get high sugars when this happens. I haven't got enough evidence to prove it yet, but it seems to work that way for me.