Consider this a peg in the sand, or something I can judge myself against in a fortnight or so, but I thought I should make some predictions.
I'm wearing a CGM again, and while I realise better now how much there is to learn about metabolism, I do know more than I did when I was last wearing one. I find myself repeatedly saying variations along the lines of "don't worry so much about what your blood glucose and food - there are more things going on than food".
I would personally go one step beyond that; reversing T2DM is specific, but beyond that, I'm thinking more and more that the balance of hormones that we think of as metabolic homeostasis, has less to do with food, and more to do with energy provision - or put another way, a healthy metabolism is concerned more with providing you energy on demand to do things, not reacting to the food you eat.
We spend so much of our lives forcing our metabolism to react to food, that it loses track of it's true nature. That's my take on "modern chronic disease" of all types, though I do stress, this is a work in progress, and I reserve the right to confess my ignorance at some future point. I very much do not state this as fact. [full disclosure, please do not listen to anything I say, I'm only learning like the rest of us, just masochistically doing it in public as much as possible].
So - I think then that my CGM traces over the next couple of weeks should show very little variation, they will be low-ish (I am in remission, so my HbA1c is low) and there will be more variation based on non-food events than what we typically call sugar spikes - there should be zero of those.
My dawn phenomenon should be lower than at the start of the year, but some reaction is a good sign of a strong circadian rhythm, so I still expect to see some rise early in the morning.
Couple of initial results;
First - this is my "daily fasting glucose and ketones" - you can see since the summer that the red line (average glucose first thing in the morning) is gradually settling on a number around 5.5 - I don't expect it to get lower than that.
The blue line is still increasing, and increasing faster - this is the average morning ketones; they will be low in the morning, but I'm using it as a kind of proxy for fat-adaptation - it doesn't show a large amount of ketones (I'm not really that interested in level of ketosis for what it's worth) but the more my body has "on hand" in the morning, the more it shows that I'm able to produce ketones, meaning that insulin has been low, meaning that my body fat can be unlocked and used for fuel (you cannot measure that directly, but if you think of ketones being a "relief valve" for fat burning, you can see that this should hold).
All of that should say that, as I go deeper, the less (bizarrely) I should be interested in blood glucose levels - they shouldn't really change... but of course they will, because there is more to this than food.
So Day 1:
Big morning spike - except it isn't - the small raise at 9:30 and 2:00 are breakfast and lunch, and dinner was about 5:45 - you can't even see any reaction to that. The morning raise was during a paddleboard run, and you can see that the glucose level drops as soon as I get off the water.
Day 2:
Even flatter - the slight raises around 7 and 8 are simply me getting up and doing things... (I had a sunrise walk, so you can see the end of that first thing)
Then - over night;
Somehow, I cropped off the time, but this is from evening through to morning. Much more variation, yet clearly, I'm asleep all the way through.
I think this is all about the brain. Your brain can be just as active through the night as during the day - it has a lot to get done while you sleep, but I think your liver will be slower to produce glucose (this is something I need to look into ... I'm speculating) so the control is not so good.
It is an interesting point though - many people talk about exercise as a way of burning off (fat, but often I think for most people fat just will not be accessible because of insulin, so it's about stored glycogen; but let's say fuel) - when what is really going on is the body providing fuel to keep up with the exercise - that is more subtle. If you want to look at what simply burns off energy - the brain does much more of that, and just "takes". So - if you exercise and run low on energy, you can feel good, but if you are consuming energy in your brain, and run low, you feel stressed and bad.
Anyway - that's enough for now - I'll report at the end of this sensor and declare whether my predictions were worth the time to write this, or not...