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<blockquote data-quote="derivadow" data-source="post: 2228139" data-attributes="member: 515468"><p>To be honest I'm concerned probably in part because this does look it will be unprecedented and because there are a lot of unknowns and although for the vast majority of people who catch it their symptoms will be (very) minor for a minority their symptoms will be serious or possible fatal (mortality rate looks like it is somewhere between 0.5-2%).</p><p></p><p>If it's helpful to know, here's what we know at the moment (or at least what I know we know):</p><p>- it was identified in early December from a cluster of cases with pneumonia in Wuhan, China;</p><p>- the natural reservoir species for the virus is bats but it came to humans via an, as yet unidentified, intermediate species (some have suggested it was the Pangolin but we don't know). NB there are reports it escaped from a lab we know this isn't true;</p><p>- the virus is in the same family as the common cold, SARS and MERS but it is none of these it is an entirely novel pathogen (to humans);</p><p>- the range of symptoms is large from none (you can be asymptomatic) to very mild to serious, and particularly early on those symptoms are non-specific;</p><p>- you are infectious even early on and with mild symptoms;</p><p>- the R0 (the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population) is thought to be about 3 i.e. each person will pass it on to 3 others (hence the exponential growth in the number of infected people);</p><p>- as a rule of thumb the number of cases in a jurisdiction doubles every 7 days; </p><p>- in the 0.5-2% of cases where it is fatal the time from infection to death is about 30 days;</p><p>- the characteristics of the disease means that is it all but certain it will develop into an epidemic and the speed driven by the level of infectiousness is probably unprecedented (60 odd days ago nobody had seen this virus);</p><p>- as of today there is no specific treatment i.e. the symptoms can be treated but not the specific infection and as yet there is no vaccination and there is no natural immunity. But there is a lot of research in this area so this will change.</p><p>- transmission is via droplets - people cough into the hands and transfer those droplets to surfaces for others to touch/transfer to their hands and from their hands to their face. This is why hand washing is so important. </p><p></p><p>Although the spread is inevitable the impact can be affected by our actions now. The initial response was to seek to contain it (that is no longer possible) we are now trying to both dampen the severity and delay the epidemic because in doing so we: increase the time for researchers to develop specific treatments and vaccinations; push the peak away for the winter flu peak and dampen the peak (spread it out) so the health service can better cope.</p><p></p><p>All this is changing very quickly so apologies if I'm out of date.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="derivadow, post: 2228139, member: 515468"] To be honest I'm concerned probably in part because this does look it will be unprecedented and because there are a lot of unknowns and although for the vast majority of people who catch it their symptoms will be (very) minor for a minority their symptoms will be serious or possible fatal (mortality rate looks like it is somewhere between 0.5-2%). If it's helpful to know, here's what we know at the moment (or at least what I know we know): - it was identified in early December from a cluster of cases with pneumonia in Wuhan, China; - the natural reservoir species for the virus is bats but it came to humans via an, as yet unidentified, intermediate species (some have suggested it was the Pangolin but we don't know). NB there are reports it escaped from a lab we know this isn't true; - the virus is in the same family as the common cold, SARS and MERS but it is none of these it is an entirely novel pathogen (to humans); - the range of symptoms is large from none (you can be asymptomatic) to very mild to serious, and particularly early on those symptoms are non-specific; - you are infectious even early on and with mild symptoms; - the R0 (the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population) is thought to be about 3 i.e. each person will pass it on to 3 others (hence the exponential growth in the number of infected people); - as a rule of thumb the number of cases in a jurisdiction doubles every 7 days; - in the 0.5-2% of cases where it is fatal the time from infection to death is about 30 days; - the characteristics of the disease means that is it all but certain it will develop into an epidemic and the speed driven by the level of infectiousness is probably unprecedented (60 odd days ago nobody had seen this virus); - as of today there is no specific treatment i.e. the symptoms can be treated but not the specific infection and as yet there is no vaccination and there is no natural immunity. But there is a lot of research in this area so this will change. - transmission is via droplets - people cough into the hands and transfer those droplets to surfaces for others to touch/transfer to their hands and from their hands to their face. This is why hand washing is so important. Although the spread is inevitable the impact can be affected by our actions now. The initial response was to seek to contain it (that is no longer possible) we are now trying to both dampen the severity and delay the epidemic because in doing so we: increase the time for researchers to develop specific treatments and vaccinations; push the peak away for the winter flu peak and dampen the peak (spread it out) so the health service can better cope. All this is changing very quickly so apologies if I'm out of date. [/QUOTE]
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