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<blockquote data-quote="urbanracer" data-source="post: 2230556" data-attributes="member: 140811"><p>It is simple to calculate the UK's morbidity rate. 1% of 367 is 3.67 and so 6 is a little under 2% (of people who develop symptoms).</p><p></p><p>We don't know how successful containment and management will be and so it's obviously dangerous to extrapolate this and apply it to the whole country. BUT if half the population (35 million) develop symptoms and 2% of those affected die then it would equate to over 600,000 deaths in a relatively short period which is not trivial by any stretch of the imagination. Let's hope it doesn't pan out this way.</p><p></p><p>One of the biggest problems is the time factor. The flu virus is spread out across the winter period, whereas this Covid virus is arriving and infection rates are peaking within a few weeks which overwhelms the care providers. So I think this is quite real.</p><p></p><p>At the same time the news mongers are extraordinarily adept at using emotive words (soar sounds so much better than rise) and have to take some of the responsibility for the panic.</p><p></p><p>But then again you'd like to think that we are all sensible people capable of making informed decisions. The psychology behind the stocking of loo roll would tend to undermine this theory.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="urbanracer, post: 2230556, member: 140811"] It is simple to calculate the UK's morbidity rate. 1% of 367 is 3.67 and so 6 is a little under 2% (of people who develop symptoms). We don't know how successful containment and management will be and so it's obviously dangerous to extrapolate this and apply it to the whole country. BUT if half the population (35 million) develop symptoms and 2% of those affected die then it would equate to over 600,000 deaths in a relatively short period which is not trivial by any stretch of the imagination. Let's hope it doesn't pan out this way. One of the biggest problems is the time factor. The flu virus is spread out across the winter period, whereas this Covid virus is arriving and infection rates are peaking within a few weeks which overwhelms the care providers. So I think this is quite real. At the same time the news mongers are extraordinarily adept at using emotive words (soar sounds so much better than rise) and have to take some of the responsibility for the panic. But then again you'd like to think that we are all sensible people capable of making informed decisions. The psychology behind the stocking of loo roll would tend to undermine this theory. [/QUOTE]
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