Myself I'm not voting over immigration as that is a different concern.Quite a lot of the Brexit campaign has revolved around “controlling immigration” with the implication that this means “reducing immigration”. Cynically, I think that this appeals to our basic instincts where we feel that ‘more for immigrants’ means ‘less for us’. This was probably a reasonable rule of thumb throughout a lot of human history but the modern world is very different. Sometimes the truth is very counterintuitive. It’s very difficult for our intellect to triumph over our instincts but this is one area where our instincts are failing us.
There was a very good article in the New Scientist on 9 April 2016 which discussed a lot of the evidence relating to immigration. I’ve tried to summarise some of the relevant points:-
People worry that increased immigration means competition with the native British for jobs and depression of wages. Modern economies do not work like this.
· As migrants take low-paid unskilled jobs, natives with the advantage of their language skills tend to move into better-paid jobs
· The effect of immigrants on wages is very small – in the worst estimates, a 1% rise in immigrants depresses wages by 0.2% - mainly the wages of the immigrants themselves – but this can be counteracted by having a minimum wage
People worry that immigrants are a drain on the British economy because they qualify for benefits. Research shows this is not the case.
· EU immigrants take less in benefit than natives, mainly because they are younger.
· EU immigrants bring in the benefit of education which has been paid for by their home country
· Many EU immigrants work for a period in the UK, paying taxes, then return to their home country before they need social security
· The UK fiscal watchdog has calculated that doubling immigration would cut UK debt by almost 1/3 whereas stopping immigration would increase the debt by nearly 50%
· The UN’s International Labour Organisation estimates that for every 1% increase in population through immigration, GDP grows by 1.25-1.5%
We need immigrants. Because of the falling birth-rate, we have a top-heavy age distribution in the UK and the number of workers supporting retired people is falling. By 2050 we need 14% of the British population to be immigrants otherwise the numbers of people paying our pensions and supplying our services will be insufficient to maintain our current living standards.
The effects of immigration on the availability of schools, housing and other services tend to be short-term and local. If we have worries about this, we need the Government to invest so that it can be managed. Any short-term effects are outweighed by the long-term benefits so the investment is worthwhile.
I do wonder whether the Brexit leaders do know all of this as they have never explicitly said they will reduce immigration, but have only implied it.
We need immigrants. Because of the falling birth-rate, we have a top-heavy age distribution in the UK and the number of workers supporting retired people is falling. By 2050 we need 14% of the British population to be immigrants otherwise the numbers of people paying our pensions and supplying our services will be insufficient to maintain our current living standards.
The effects of immigration on the availability of schools, housing and other services tend to be short-term and local. If we have worries about this, we need the Government to invest so that it can be managed. Any short-term effects are outweighed by the long-term benefits so the investment is worthwhile.
Today I think I'm in the stay camp...........
It appears to me although we are 1 of the big 3, as a nation we have only dipped our toe in the EU water, we have the ability to opt out of some EU rules, don't use the euro, don't have to bail other EU nations out when required and I'm sure theres plenty of others, yet we can freely trade with them, freely move within the EU (and they move freely here too).
But what control do we have over the EU? What does the UK bring to the EU table (other than money!)?
All the general public hear is a one way flow of rules and regulations we have to abide by coming from Brussels - has the UK stopped any EU rules going live instead of just opting out?
We can speculate on the reason for the low birth-rate which is undoubtedly multifactorial but I genuinely don't understand what point you are trying to make.Lower birth-rate because families cannot afford bigger housing, bigger bills and lack of flexible working. Yes its available if it doesn't affect business. Of course business is affected. A working woman/man who is skilled needs to use their skills on their family instead on business.
Family life is stifled too.
Restrictions, restrictions, restrictions!
Strictly speaking he isn't. He is no longer a Member of Parliament and is not a member of the House of Lords. He is generally considered a political commentator and after dinner speaker these days. Does it matter whether he was paid for appearing on telly? I've no idea whether he was!John Major in Bristol saying the EU will get better.
How can he guarantee that?
He said he was no longer in politics! I bet he was paid this morning for appearing on tv live. That's politics! Rubbish and lies.
Those people from other countries - have you heard much about this debate and what are your thoughts.
As per the EU Act 2011 that the UK parliament passed, if certain aspects of our relationship with the EU change (essentially relating to changes to treaties and impinging on our current opt outs), the UK has a mechanism to reject those changes and in law must put some of them to a referendum.
The structure relating to contributions is agreed in those treaties, so changes to that structure would invoke the EU Act. It gets a whole lot more detailed than that though. So if changes come, we have a way to assess and decide whether to continue.
So he is in politics. Not in insurance or banking but he's in politics.Strictly speaking he isn't. He is no longer a Member of Parliament and is not a member of the House of Lords. He is generally considered a political commentator and after dinner speaker these days. Does it matter whether he was paid for appearing on telly? I've no idea whether he was!
I suspect that he's basing his comments on the statements made in the last few days regarding reform of the EU by various members of the EU political establishment.
My bottom line sums it all up.We can speculate on the reason for the low birth-rate which is undoubtedly multifactorial but I genuinely don't understand what point you are trying to make.
For those who are still undecided, why would you leave and enter the unknown? Nearly all of country's major company and governmental decisions are based on economics and they are best protected if we remain. I want a secure future for my children and grandchildren.I'm undecided - so lets hear other real peoples thoughts on the subject, but be nice about it!
Well make some important changes! Can you not see where this is heading? What do you think the future holds in the EU?For those who are still undecided, why would you leave and enter the unknown? Nearly all of country's major company and governmental decisions are based on economics and they are best protected if we remain. I want a secure future for my children and grandchildren.
I disagree. Entirely different situation. The EEC was a completely different entity.I think if we weren't already a member we would be banging on the door asking to be admitted for the trading advantages, as we did before we joined the Common Market and De Gaulle didn't want to let us in.
We weren't discussing trade, we were discussing immigration. In the EU our doors are open, out of the EU we can choose.How exactly is it more difficult in the EU? In the EU, we get seats on the EAP, who define the conditions for free movement of workers and people. Out of the EU, we are like Switzerland and Norway...we just get told what the conditions are and we either take them and trade in the ECR, or decline them and lose trading (which I highly doubt would ever be a decision made by anyone). The UK can't just stop trading with the 2nd largest market in the world...
We can't though. A precursor to trading in the ECM is free rights of movement of work and people, so we'd have to accept that law, but instead of being able influence it, we just have to accept it.We weren't discussing trade, we were discussing immigration. In the EU our doors are open, out of the EU we can choose.
He is as much in politics as you or I are in that he can personally influence nothing, but commentates and gives opinions, as he was previously in politics. In this context, we are also in politics as we are discussing it now.So he is in politics.
As much as you can, if we're honest about it.Can you not see where this is heading?
That's the one part of the EU treaties that we have removed ourselves from. And yes, as it happens, I do believe that any attempt to force the UK into changing this would result in referendum, as it would have a point. There is an issue that would be debated, rather than the more nebulous in or out. If the EU was attempting to over-ride our legal system to suit an overarching EU model, I and many others would take a very different view on the outcome of a referendum for it.But while I have never been in trouble with the law there is one thing why I think we should vote out on, and that is our basic justice system, it was based on the face that you are Innocent until proven guilty, sadly as we have gone towards more EU integration, we have seen time and time again our Justice system sliding towards the opposite view of being guilty and you having to prove you are innocent. This is very much the European and former Empires way of doing things, you had little chance of proving you innocents at the French revolution without inditing other people.
Still no wiser, I'm afraid. Which restrictions in particular?My bottom line sums it all up.
That depends on whether we stay in the single market in the same way we are now or whether we negotiate for change. If it stays the same we have now way of controlling it. I agree that non-EU immigration has to be addressed too.We can't though. A precursor to trading in the ECM is free rights of movement of work and people, so we'd have to accept that law, but instead of being able influence it, we just have to accept it.
Immigration won't change as a result of leaving the EU. 76% of immigration comes from outside the EU and the 24% we have some control over currently, we would have no control over if we were to leave.
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