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Breakdown of Italy’s figures (edited title)
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<blockquote data-quote="urbanracer" data-source="post: 2238783" data-attributes="member: 140811"><p>Anybody seen this report in the FT? Not specifically about Italy but it offers a very different view of the situation.</p><p></p><p><a href="https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b" target="_blank">https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b</a></p><p></p><p>If you click on the link it may appear to be behind a paywall but it is syndicated news that can be accessed via Google.</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 22px"><strong>Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>New epidemiological model shows vast majority of people suffer little or no illness</strong></span></p><p><em><img src="https://www-ft-com.cdn.ampproject.org/i/s/www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-us.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fd823f77c-6de0-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?source=google-amp&fit=scale-down&width=500" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></em></p><p><em>If the results of the study are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment © Tolga Akmen/AFP</em></p><p><em> </em></p><p><em>March 24, 2020 4:19 pm by <a href="https://www.ft.com/clive-cookson" target="_blank">Clive Cookson </a>, Science Editor</em></p><p><em></em></p><p><em></em></p><p><em>The new <a href="https://www.ft.com/coronavirus" target="_blank">coronavirus</a> may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.</em></p><p><em></em></p><p><em>If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.</em></p><p><em></em></p><p><em>“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.</em></p><p><em></em></p><p><em>The <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0" target="_blank">modelling</a> by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.</em></p><p><em></em></p><p><em>The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/16764a22-69ca-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75" target="_blank">modelling</a> at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta. </em></p><p><em></em></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="urbanracer, post: 2238783, member: 140811"] Anybody seen this report in the FT? Not specifically about Italy but it offers a very different view of the situation. [URL]https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b[/URL] If you click on the link it may appear to be behind a paywall but it is syndicated news that can be accessed via Google. [SIZE=6][B]Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study[/B][/SIZE] [SIZE=5][B]New epidemiological model shows vast majority of people suffer little or no illness[/B][/SIZE] [I][IMG]https://www-ft-com.cdn.ampproject.org/i/s/www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-us.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fd823f77c-6de0-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?source=google-amp&fit=scale-down&width=500[/IMG] If the results of the study are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment © Tolga Akmen/AFP March 24, 2020 4:19 pm by [URL='https://www.ft.com/clive-cookson']Clive Cookson [/URL], Science Editor The new [URL='https://www.ft.com/coronavirus']coronavirus[/URL] may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford. If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all. “We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said. The [URL='https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0']modelling[/URL] by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February. The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the [URL='https://www.ft.com/content/16764a22-69ca-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75']modelling[/URL] at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta. [/I] [/QUOTE]
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