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COVID the real numbers? Not all doom and gloom.
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<blockquote data-quote="Brunneria" data-source="post: 2304721" data-attributes="member: 41816"><p>except that the number of positive tests (which will never be 100% accurate, because no test is completely accurate), gives a good indication of the amount of the coronavirus circulating in the population, both symptomatically and asymptomatically, with implications for our progress towards herd immunity - which will make a huge difference to how far our lives can return to normal over the coming winter.</p><p></p><p>I am extremely lucky to live in a part of England with v low infection rates. Am delighted for myself, my friends and colleagues, and it allows me to take fewer precautions than if the numbers were higher around here. Of course, the flip side of that means that Ikm living in an area with (probably) much lower herd immunity than (for instance) London. </p><p></p><p>I also think it is very useful to know what proportion are asymptomatic (again, that figure will never be a precise number. I've been reading some fascinating studies this week (refs available, on request <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite1" alt=":)" title="Smile :)" loading="lazy" data-shortname=":)" /> ) showing what is looking like a strong link between the inoculum level, and the severity of disease. That is certainly going to inform my wearing of masks in future.</p><p></p><p>all of this is fab news - and there is plenty of fab Covid news around at the mo, but I’m not interested in blowing it up into unsubstantiated claims. That never helps.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brunneria, post: 2304721, member: 41816"] except that the number of positive tests (which will never be 100% accurate, because no test is completely accurate), gives a good indication of the amount of the coronavirus circulating in the population, both symptomatically and asymptomatically, with implications for our progress towards herd immunity - which will make a huge difference to how far our lives can return to normal over the coming winter. I am extremely lucky to live in a part of England with v low infection rates. Am delighted for myself, my friends and colleagues, and it allows me to take fewer precautions than if the numbers were higher around here. Of course, the flip side of that means that Ikm living in an area with (probably) much lower herd immunity than (for instance) London. I also think it is very useful to know what proportion are asymptomatic (again, that figure will never be a precise number. I've been reading some fascinating studies this week (refs available, on request :) ) showing what is looking like a strong link between the inoculum level, and the severity of disease. That is certainly going to inform my wearing of masks in future. all of this is fab news - and there is plenty of fab Covid news around at the mo, but I’m not interested in blowing it up into unsubstantiated claims. That never helps. [/QUOTE]
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