Dr. M K on the heart risk calculators. :-)

LittleGreyCat

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https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2019/01/02/what-causes-heart-disease-part-60-prediction/

Interesting reading and concludes that the risk calculators both in the USA and UK have no scientific value.

Mainly about a study which measured results against the risk scores, and also a study which worked out what were the highest risk factors for CVD - strangely they weren't the ones used in the calculators.

Just for flavour:

"At present, it is true to say that the established risk factors, and the risk calculators, are almost completely useless. Not only that, they get more useless if you try to use them across different countries. If I took Qrisk3, or ‘cvrisk’ to France, whatever risk it calculated, I would then have to divide whatever figure I got, by four.

This is because, for exactly the same set of risk factors, someone in France will have one quarter the rate of CVD as a man in the US, or UK. Which means that the ‘cvrisk’ would actually overestimate risk by twenty-fold in France. Five times too high a calculated risk in the US, multiplied by four times too high a calculated risk in France. 5 x 4 = 20."

Moral - don't be cared into taking statins by some dodgy risk calculator.

Oh, and on risk factors:

"Yes, LDL ranked 46th out of 48 factors, well, well, who’d a thunk. The only things that scored lower than LDL were FEV1 and AST/ALT ratio. Factors that, unless you are medically trained, you will never have heard of. The first one, FEV1 stands for forced expiratory volume (from your lungs), measured over one second. The other is the ratio of two liver enzymes."
 
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Krystyna23040

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Just read this article. It is just so good and very interesting. I have recently done the UK risk calculator thingy which shows me at very high risk - presumably because of age, diabetes and cholesterol. My gut feeling was that the calculator was wrong - this confirms it.
 

OrsonKartt

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Just read this article. It is just so good and very interesting. I have recently done the UK risk calculator thingy which shows me at very high risk - presumably because of age, diabetes and cholesterol. My gut feeling was that the calculator was wrong - this confirms it.

I rate this doctors blog highly. Bit of a Tease in this one about what comes next !