EU - In or Out + Poll.

Catlady19 said:

I don't think there will be anything to worry about in the immediate future - it will take years to sort this out!

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There won't be anything to worry about, other than years of uncertainty.

And let's be clear what that looks like. The two years relating to clause fifty is for us to negotiate our exit, not for the future framework. The likelihood is therefore, after up to two years, we won't know how we will be operating with the EU, only how we will get out. At the point we leave the EU, any trading agreements we had cease and we revert to WTO rules, whatever those look like per country, for all countries, and that covers both our services and goods. We then start from scratch on renegotiating treaties. Let's not kid ourselves how long this stuff takes. it takes years, per treaty.

Then there's a sudden devaluation of the pound (and we've already seen the indicators of that when the polls looked like a Brexit was going to take place). Something similar happened when we left the EMU, but we are economically in a very different place right now.

That's a great deal of uncertainty. Business and investment is not very fond of that. So I don't believe the statement, when anyone says to me, "I don't think there will be anything to worry about in the immediate future".

FolkyRose1 said:

I have a question. I am an expat living in Spain . How would leaving the EU affect my health eg. Availability of medications

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If UK leaves, we would have 2 years (possibly extended) to negotiate reciprocal agreements with EU countries. The present reciprocal agreements would continue until then. If no reciprocal agreement is reached, UK citizens might have to take out private insurance to cover medical treatment, as they do in most non-EU countries.

Catlady19 said:

According to some economists a drop in the value of the pound could be a good thing - it will attract investment. As we have discussed previously, not all companies find leave a bad prospect.

You can believe or not believe what you like - there are plenty of things coming from the remain campaign that I don't believe!

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It's sensible to be sceptical. I'm the same, so I like to check as many facts as I can and not just go on what one side or another says.

I've linked to the BBC site and we've also had a link to Fullfacts, but if you're interested, you can also Google for other relevant opinions, eg in this case the CBI:

http://news.cbi.org.uk/business-issues/uk-and-the-european-union/faqs-eu/

There will be other sites too : )

zand said:

My son just showed me this video apologies if it's been mentioned on this thread already.


Yes let's do something now....lead not leave.

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Very good from old Gordy; it is us after all who are not littering battlefields like every generation before us in some European conflict. NATO may be the military expression of European unity but the EU, at least, informs and nurtures that unity. Leaving because you don't like the French or Germans is shameful.

Catlady19 said:

According to some economists a drop in the value of the pound could be a good thing - it will attract investment. As we have discussed previously, not all companies find leave a bad prospect.

You can believe or not believe what you like - there are plenty of things coming from the remain campaign that I don't believe!

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I've spent far too much of this whole campaign reading WTO rules, EU treaties, UK acts, EFTA treaties and EEA treaties. I've looked at market and currency fluctuations in relation to major events and UK government reports relating to a whole host of things in this area. Modern european history has also been in the reading list (looking at NATO and the EEC/EU). I've been unbelievably boring in this area. I'm by no means an expert in EU law, but the one thing I am certain is that an in vote is better than an out vote at this point in time.

At a point where we were being asked whether we wanted to participate in an EU army, or whether we were going to give up tax powers to a centralised government, or join the Euro? Stuff that our own legislature defined as Refendum decisions in the EU Act 2011, then yes, let's debate that properly and in an adult fashion where it has a point.

But now, this is an exercise that was unnecessary and destabilising, and almost entirely driven by UKIP. Whatever the outcome here, there will still be a large swathe of the UK electorate that harks back to the days of tea parties in the country where Miss Marple solves the occasional murder. Rose-tinted nostalgia is playing a dangerous part in this whole debate. I don't believe that voting out will bring them what they want in any shape or form.

Catlady19 said:

According to some economists a drop in the value of the pound could be a good thing - it will attract investment.

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It's currently being discussed on the Jeremy Vine R2 show.

There are more vote to leave posters in the village I work in.
I personally think the country will vote to stay in, we don't seem to have the back bone or the bulldog spirit anymore to actually leave, as it could be (to many people) as too, big a change with consequences ( David Cameron got back in, didn't he) Less than 48 hours to voting now

I consider myself to be English first, British a close second and European a far away 3rd. I always thought we should leave the EU until a few years ago. I once agreed with all the sentiments put across by those who are saying 'leave' on this thread. None of you have said anything that I didn't say myself at one time or another.

I was listening to a radio program a couple of years ago where the British Economy was being discussed. The conclusion was that GB plc was almost broke. We have been selling our assets to fund day to day expenses for far too long. Anyone can see that's not a good thing. There's a real risk that European firms will leave and take their investment with them if we leave the EU.

I don't have the rose coloured specs view. I remember the years prior to the common market and the few years after we joined. Strike after strike. Power cuts. Demands for 20% pay increases by the unions fuelling cost push inflation making our goods not competitive. That's the not so great Britain I remember pre EU. I certainly don't want to return to that. It worries me that people want to leave the EU 'to be better off' . We can't afford to pay ourselves over the odds like we did back then.

The reason foreign workers get jobs over here is because they work hard. If there were Brits willing to do the jobs as well as the immigrants then they would get the jobs, after all Brits have a massive advantage in that they are already fluent in English. No employer would choose a foreigner over a Brit if the skill sets were equal, it doesn't make sense. There was an outcry that foreigners came here because our benefit system was better than the rest of Europe's. So we changed the system and reduced them to be more in line with Europe, not because Europe told us to, but to help solve the problem of foreigners milking the system and preferring to come here. Next there's an outcry that benefits have been reduced. Can't win can you?

I am really fearful that we won't manage on our own if we leave. It's has been said that Europe will still trade with us because we buy their goods. That's probably true....as long the value that we buy from them is greater than the value they buy from us, of course they will continue....but that will just increase our debt. We can't do that forever.

The BBC have just said it is now 50/50 once again in the poles with a lot of people not saying which way they are going to vote, one thing is clear no one can tell us what is going to happen on Thursday, and each side is now saying that the other is playing dirty tricks, just grow up. I for one cant wait for it to be over one way or the other to be honest about it.
Will it make any difference to my life? I doubt it, I can't see anyone scrapping any of the workers rights as you only need one company to set up a better deal than everyone else and they will attract all the best talent, one thing I don't agree with and which I see as an EU problem which has been allowed to develop and that is the zero hour contracts, we as a country had a reasonably healthy self employed culture as we knew what we where getting into, but with the introduction of the zero hours contract that has changed the goal posts to much also if you have been self employed for more that eleven months by one employer the rule is now they have to offer you a full time contract on PAYE, all well and good you might say but what if the contract is only for say fourteen months in total well one way for getting around it is to say the original fourteen month contact is now on zero hours and so the employer can say they don't want you in for a week or two which in effect then cuts the total length of the contact to fall outside of the PAYE scheme, this goes on in the construction industry, as I know it has happen to me.

For me the EU has make some industries worse off construction being one, as an example you have a new building to construct so you start to employ all the staff you need to carry out the work, but you start to find that the supply chain cannot copy with your demands and tells you there is a shortage of bricks which will take 8 to 9 months to fulfill why is that? Well we don't have enough brick makers in the UK anymore as we have not trained any up in years and at one point a few year ago up to 60% of all the bricks used in the UK came from mainland Europe.

I am not sure just how many of you realise this but thanks to the EU this country is limited to just how much we can produce in food and other services of our own. The figure varies from industry to industry but I think milk production is limited to just 70% of our requirements, yet we have good British dairy heards going for slaughter because we can't pay for the running cost's of milk production in the UK, French farmers get paid by us to dump milk in North Africa because their heards are so large and the EU does not want another milk lake on its hands. This is just one of those unfair playing fields where if the EU had the guts it would limit the size of all the milk heards across the whole of the EU but they haven't wanted to upset the French farmers and so in this case the UK farmer loses out.

You also need to ask your self why is it we are not selling more to the EU to reduce the balance of payments, the simple answer is we are being limited in our production capacity as a country to be able to sell to the EU.

All this rubbish about our international financial center disappearing over to Paris or Berlin is pure scare mongering, if anything if we where to leave, that service sector could grow due manly to the time zones around the world, the three main financial centers around the World are New York, London and Hong Kong.

Catlady19 said:

Who is going to do that?

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Who is going to help lead Europe? The British MEPs along with the French and German ones if we stay in the EU. The French and Germans if we don't. I can't see them doing us any favours if we leave, it has to be beneficial for us to stay because we will still have a say in things. If we leave the EU then we have no say in how it's run, and I can't see how that helps Britain. They are our neighbours, so what they do will still affect us, we just won't be able to do anything about it. I would prefer us to still have a voice there.

"tim2000s said:

You shouldn't make a change regardless, just because you've been given the opportunity. You should make a change because you have considered all the options and information available and change is the best of these.

Have you?


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No.
I want more than a E.U for the uk. I want a United Kingdom THEN a E.U to please.
I want the uk to stand tall and account for itself, foremost.
Without a backbone there is no body. No definition or purpose.
United Kingdom stand and be counted as the Great Britain we are and can be once more.
We don't need to sign ourselves down the river to make ourselves popular.
We need to invest in the uk and the residents within.
Make your backdone imperishable FIRST.

novorapidboi26 said:

My sister stays in France and if we vote out she would need to apply for a Visa, to which she is unsure if she would be accepted.....

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Why not?
If there a good reason why the uk wouldnt want her to visit?
If no problems then no refusal. Just like Australia would do.

zand said:

Who is going to help lead Europe? The British MEPs along with the French and German ones if we stay in the EU. The French and Germans if we don't. I can't see them doing us any favours if we leave, it has to be beneficial for us to stay because we will still have a say in things. If we leave the EU then we have no say in how it's run, and I can't see how that helps Britain. They are our neighbours, so what they do will still affect us, we just won't be able to do anything about it. I would prefer us to keep to still have a voice there.

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Its sounding very much like... keep your friends close but keep your enemies closer?

Lynbarn said:

All this rubbish about our international financial center disappearing over to Paris or Berlin is pure scare mongering, if anything if we where to leave, that service sector could grow due manly to the time zones around the world, the three main financial centers around the World are New York, London and Hong Kong.

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As someone who works in the Finance industry, let me provide you with an insight into this. A huge amount of the trade in Euro denominated stocks, derivatives and Repos (2 trillion Euros daily) traded, plus the clearing and settlement of Euro denominated instruments and currency (amounting to billions) takes place in London under the jurisdiction of the FCA and BoE. The ECB isn't very happy that the majority of the currency trade is not under its control. It has already tried to move this onshore within the Eurozone, which failed under an ECJ challenge from the UK. There is no doubt that under the exit of the UK from the EU, this will be lost as the ECJ ruling no longer applies and we would not be able to challenge it.

That's a big deal!

Catlady19 said:

Why did Cameron do it then? It wasn't that long ago he was all for leave!

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The referendum was promised to keep the Conservative party together ahead of the last general election. Essentially it was a play to avoid Eurosceptic MPs absconding to UKIP and splitting the Tory party vote. It had little to do with the reality of the rest of the world.

tim2000s said:

As someone who works in the Finance industry, let me provide you with an insight into this. A huge amount of the trade in Euro denominated stocks, derivatives and Repos (2 trillion Euros daily) traded, plus the clearing and settlement of Euro denominated instruments and currency (amounting to billions) takes place in London under the jurisdiction of the FCA and BoE. The ECB isn't very happy that the majority of the currency trade is not under its control. It has already tried to move this onshore within the Eurozone, which failed under an ECJ challenge from the UK. There is no doubt that under the exit of the UK from the EU, this will be lost as the ECJ ruling no longer applies and we would not be able to challenge it.

That's a big deal!

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So if it hasn't been achieved already, whilst in. Why would it happen if we stay in?
Cut our losses and stop relying on others to secure our future!?