that would all depend on the profile you assume for the insulin action.
I think you're on Novorapid aren't you? Which has a very quick profile. If you've read Think Like a Pancreas he offers several methods of estimating.
With NovorapidI think a straight line 25% per hour would probably overestimate IOB. One of the profiles he suggests is
1hr - 40% used, 60% left
2hr - another 30% used, 30% left
3hr - another 20% used, 10% left
4hr - all over
You could try that as an easy ready reckoner