Lucy I really am not surprised by the findings which essentially amount to it either it "causes up to a 25% reduction or a 31% increase in all-cause mortality or similarly, these findings cannot exclude the possibility that metformin causes up to a 33% reduction or a 64% increase in cardiovascular mortality" which to me amounts to the equivalent but unscientific statement of "f**k knows what its effects are"
One simplistic totally unproven my opinion only interpretation is as follows. In people who take their condition seriously and change to a healthier lifestyle and get their BG's under control by whatever method suits them then Metformin is helpful and will reduce your risks. For people who treat it as a magic pill that somehow will enable them to continue an unhealthy lifestyle and not control their BG's then it may well increase your risk simply because those people believe it is a magic pill.
Those of us who take Metformin and measure it effects with our meters know that it reduces BG's by at most 1 or 2mmol. It will help regulate spikes in BG's but its pretty easy to send it into overload. If you eat something that will raise your BG's into the teens then taking Metformin and expecting it to magically allow you to do so is just rubbish. The problem is exasperated by "kindly" DSN's or in my case a big 42" plasma TV in the local diabetes centre that says things like "Try and be under 12 after eating"
The most shocking statistic I have come across since diagnosis was from a 13 year study which had the conclusion that if you are a diabetic who remains uncontrolled then by the time 13 years is up you run a 50/50 chance of being dead. Yes half of them die within 13 years. If you are "lucky" to be in the surviving half then as an uncontrolled diabetic within that 13 years you run a high chance of being blind or being an amputee. It is that simple.
The issue isn't does Metformin work. The real issue is have you changed to a healthier lifestyle and got your diabetes under control in my opinion.