Post 12 weeks shielding

I don't think anyone has a definite exit strategy, no doubt they are going to see what happens in Wuhan as restrictions are lifted, before making any plans.

Bearing up said:

A thought crossed my mind this morning, after shielding for the advised 12 weeks , what then ? Am I safe to venture out with the rest of the population , am I not still at risk as the virus may have passed through many that are now healthy again, but there be may still be some that have not yet been infected that could still spread it ?

Or would it be better to catch it now and take the chance rather than live in fear of getting it later.
I ask only as its been just one week isolated , but food and finances are running low ,and getting a job might be a better prospect , financially and mentaly
Thoughts

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i can only sympathise with those having the additional worry of finances - my occupational pension requires no mixing with the world outside. Not sure how you would know for sure you had had COVID with the testing regime just now or how protected that makes anyone. I agree with @Mr_Pot people don't know. My own view is until there is a reliable test for antibodies and a very well tried and tested vaccine I am still at risk and extremely vulnerable. I'm expecting that to last until late 2021 at least but a) I'm a cheerful soul generally and b) I wouldn't trust a word that comes from our (UK) govt. Basically stay as far away as possible from anyone else if total shielding is impossible. You have my heartfelt sympathy

With the measures put in place only a fraction of the population will have got it. Plan A from the government was to let it rip through the population and let herd immunity take care of those at most risk in the future while keeping those at highest risk isolated during the peaks.

They changed tactic and have gone for full country lock down, ultimalty this will stop it spreading but it means that in another few months after the lockdown is released cases will build up again and will we have another lock down. This is likely to go in waves until a vaccine is available.

They are also looking at an antibody test which would give people effectively a green tick during future lockdowns as being safe to work and interact as they are immune.

Long story short this is going to go on for a long time unless they pull a vaccine out of the hat. Im assuming you must have some conditions that go beyond your type 2 and onto the list of conditions that need to be shielded? If not you dont need to be shielded and can continue in line with the rest of the country.

sno0opy said:

With the measures put in place only a fraction of the population will have got it. Plan A from the government was to let it rip through the population and let herd immunity take care of those at most risk in the future while keeping those at highest risk isolated during the peaks.

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There is no such thing as herd immunity it is an illusion brought about by mass inoculation with a vaccine as soon as vaccination in the population drops below 95% that illusion disappears look at how measles made a come back when people stopped having their children vaccinated.

JohnEGreen said:

There is no such thing as herd immunity it is an illusion brought about by mass inoculation with a vaccine as soon as vaccination in the population drops below 95% that illusion disappears look at how measles made a come back when people stopped having their children vaccinated.

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Yes you have out breaks in areas where the levels are lower, but it does not rip through a population like this virus will if left unchecked because the large groups if immune people dont pass it to each other.

Herd immunity comes from either a well taken up vaccine or a significant portion of the population getting it. It wont stop pockets of the virus springing up and targeting the unlucky few who are not immune already and also at high risk but it would put it back to being something that springs up and and down with lower levels of cases.

Measles made a come back but not in a significant way because a large % of the population are immune.

Either way, it dosnt change the fact that on the current project path this will go on for a very long time without a vaccine that may or may not take a year or more to perfect and distribute.

Bearing up said:

in remission from cancer and have sarcoidosis on lungs , wife to in remission.
Its all unknown territory .
I've just had a call to attend the GP surgery re Mondays blood tests didnt want to discuss on phone so I will get shopping on the way home.

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Feel for you . Hope things work out ok. Just be careful and stay safe, we will get further guidance I'm sure when this first wave is over with

Prof Willem van Schaik, Professor of Microbiology and Infection, University of Birmingham, said:

“Herd immunity describes the phenomenon that at-risk individuals are protected from infection because they are surrounded by immune individuals. The spread of the virus is thus minimised. Currently, we talk mostly about herd immunity in the context of vaccines. If a sufficiently high number of individuals in a population are vaccinated, they will provide herd immunity to the small number of people that are not vaccinated (e.g. for medical or religious reasons). We have recently seen cases of measles outbreaks where herd immunity was not sufficiently high because children were not vaccinated out of completely unfounded fears against vaccination."

“Unfortunately, a very rough estimate suggests that we will only reach herd immunity to Covid-19 when approximately 60% of the population is immune (and remember that immunity is currently only reached by getting the infection as we have no vaccine!). The major downside is that this will mean that in the UK alone at least 36 million people will need to be infected and recover. It is almost impossible to predict what that will mean in terms of human costs but we are conservatively looking at 10,000s deaths, and possibly at 100,000s of death.

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-comments-about-herd-immunity/

"
Levine and others talk about a need to consider population immunity at both a global and hyperlocal level. Take the case of the seven-year-old boy who returned to San Diego with measles. His parents had chosen not to vaccinate him or his siblings. And he attended a San Diego charter school in which parents of 17 percent of the students had signed personal beliefs exemption forms to opt their children out of required vaccinations. So while the average vaccination rate may have been high across the county, it varied locally; rates in some neighborhoods like his fell far below the necessary threshold to achieve herd immunity.
In effect, a cluster of unvaccinated children acts as piled-up kindling. When the infected boy returned home, he was the match that lit the pile. And the fuel kept the virus sustained long enough that it could jump to other vulnerable piles. “If you’ve got disease popping up in a community, that herd immunity in essence goes away,”

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/rethinking-herd-immunity/

So I don't think I will be relying on the Concept of an illusory herd immunity to save the day.

No nor i becuase we have moved strategy as i said orignaly. The original plan was to hit the threshold by not making major restrictions and letting it rip through the population. Without restrictions we would hit that level of threshold very quickly at the expense of lives

As we're now isolating the community we won't reach that threshold for years so we have to rely on a vaccine.

It will be for the Monday morning quarterbacks to pick apart this mess in years to come and decide if the long term deaths that will be caused by the economic impact of this virus will outweigh the deaths caused by the virus left unchecked.

It's an horrible decision of choosing between the sick and the poor. We have choosen the sick and the poor will suffer for it in the years to come

Bearing up said:

A thought crossed my mind this morning, after shielding for the advised 12 weeks , what then ? Am I safe to venture out with the rest of the population , am I not still at risk as the virus may have passed through many that are now healthy again, but there be may still be some that have not yet been infected that could still spread it ?

Or would it be better to catch it now and take the chance rather than live in fear of getting it later.
I ask only as its been just one week isolated , but food and finances are running low ,and getting a job might be a better prospect , financially and mentaly
Thoughts

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I understand from what has been said is the 12 weeks will be reviewed when more is known, and everyone shielding will be advised if and when things change, and what to do next. All the rules are subject to review.

Have you anyone who can shop for you? Have you explored all the local shops to see if they are now delivering to the severely at risk? For example, my local butcher is delivering. They have never done this before, also a local food hall is delivering, and various other shops.

Bearing up said:

would it be better to catch it now and take the chance

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This is my opinion only. Short answer NO! Because the next 3-4 weeks the hospitals and NHS staff are going to be overwhelmed, do not get it now. The effects of social distancing are only going to kick in in about the next 2/3 weeks. The next couple of weeks the numbers are going to be scary. Every day delay means there is more info and more chance of identifying care strategies/treatments that will help. Take each day at a time, isolate as long as you can, take the time to de-stress and look after yourself.

Bearing up said:

Or would it be better to catch it now and take the chance rather than live in fear of getting it later.
Thoughts

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No. Even if you'd catch it, you wouldn't necessarily be immune against reinfection. With most viruses you are, but no one knows with this one yet. Also immunity is typically for a few months, not for life. On top of that, the virus could mutate so that your immune system wouldn't recognize it and you'd get it again. Hence the new influenza vaccine every year.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/can-you-become-immune-sars-cov-2-180974532/

I don't mean to sound all doom and gloom, but the best thing is to be cautious and not catch it at all. Even if you do, most people come through just fine. And with so many silent carriers, there's a chance you've already had it.