Slowdown in new type 2 diabetes cases

[JohnEGreen]

It seems the numbers of new cases of T2 being diagnosed has slowed down.

Prof Dianna Magliano, head of diabetes and population health at the Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, in Melbourne, who led the study, said: "We are seeing a flattening of incidence and even a fall in many high income countries in the recent years."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-49648646

 

[Member496333]

Seems promising but I'm finding it difficult to gloss over this part;

"...and a different test for type 2 diabetes was introduced around 2010."

Surely that completely invalidates the data? Mind you we are talking about epidemiology here, so I guess anything goes.

 

[Diakat]

Surely it means data just needs to be considered in blocks of pre and post 2010?

 

[Brunneria]

I'm assuming 'the different test' that was introduced in 2010 is the fact that there was a major shift from using a fasting glucose tolerance test, to using the HbA1c. This shift was supported by the World Health Organisation in an attempt to achieve a standard, economical test.

My personal view is that the HbA1c is a very blunt instrument, though it is easier to use in a consistent manner, and is a major cost saving for the healthcare provider, it lets too many people slip through the net. Including anaemics, those with haemachromatosis and other health issues.

Interesting link to a study showing that the change in diagnostic criteria resulted in different consequences for different ethnicities, which could have very serious implications for those that are less well served by the HbA1c.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20739381

 

[Tophat1900]

Seems promising but I'm finding it difficult to gloss over this part;

"...and a different test for type 2 diabetes was introduced around 2010."

Surely that completely invalidates the data? Mind you we are talking about epidemiology here, so I guess anything goes.

The old moving the goal posts trick....

 

[NicoleC1971]

Thanks for this! I hope it is a true flattening however the developing nations are making up for the shortfall still and type 2 is still a growth industry.
The secondary point about the diagnostic tools is that both fbg, gtt and hba1c could be used to check someone's carb tolerance but if a reliable fasting insulin could be taken this would pick up a few more diabetics in waiting.

 

[millenium]

I'm assuming 'the different test' that was introduced in 2010 is the fact that there was a major shift from using a fasting glucose tolerance test, to using the HbA1c. This shift was supported by the World Health Organisation in an attempt to achieve a standard, economical test.

My personal view is that the HbA1c is a very blunt instrument, though it is easier to use in a consistent manner, and is a major cost saving for the healthcare provider, it lets too many people slip through the net. Including anaemics, those with haemachromatosis and other health issues.

Interesting link to a study showing that the change in diagnostic criteria resulted in different consequences for different ethnicities, which could have very serious implications for those that are less well served by the HbA1c.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20739381

This should be the case. The incidence rate of diabetes cannot has come down without obvious reason.

 

[Tophat1900]

I think it means very little, if you look at graphs on diabetes rates you can see flat spots here and there and even slight dips, but the trend is still rising.

 

[ringi]

It may be that with increase effect by doctors to find people with type2 at an early state that a few years ago people where labled who would otherwise be labled now.

 

[JohnEGreen]

I think it means very little, if you look at graphs on diabetes rates you can see flat spots here and there and even slight dips, but the trend is still rising.

It's the rate of change that is changing it is thought that the incidence of diabetes is growing at a slower rate the opposite to the expansion of the universe which is accelerating .