There is very little evidence that intra day variation does matter in type 1. (except in the case of hypoglycaemia as a complication).Type 2 may be different .(more evidence)
Using the data available from EDIC and DCCT there were three things that made a difference.
Average glucose levels ( risk for CVD)
HbA1c (as a risk for microvascular complications)
variation between HbA1c (ie periods of overall higher and lower glucose levels)
(see Kilpatrick, various papers).
This variation between HbA1cs has also been demonstrated as having an association with retinopathy in a large German trial
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0091137#pone-0091137-g001
However, since there were no CGMs at the time of these studies, the daily blood glucose profiles came from 7 fingersticks carried out at 3 monthly intervals .
It has become a matter of debate between those who say it must have an effect (and can point to mechanisms such as increased oxidative stress which could be causative) and those who point to the lack of any evidence.
These two review papers (2013) describe the evidence base
Glucose variability; does it matter?
http://press.endocrine.org/doi/full/10.1210/er.2009-0021
Glycemic Variability ,both sides of the story
http://care.diabetesjournals.org/content/36/Supplement_2/S272.full
There was also another review in Sept 2014 (so fairly up to date)
http://www.diabetesresearchclinicalpractice.com/article/S0168-8227(14)00275-7/abstract
Eighteen studies reported the association between glucose variability and diabetes-related complications exclusively in type 2 diabetes. A positive association between increased variability and microvascular complications and coronary artery disease was consistently reported. Associations between glucose variability and other macrovascular complications were inconsistent in type 2 diabetes.
Seven studies examined the association between glucose variability and complications exclusively in type 1 diabetes. Increased glucose variability appears to play a minimal role in the development of micro- and macrovascular complications in type 1 diabetes.
Consistent findings suggest that in type 2 diabetes glucose variability is associated with development of microvascular complications. The role of increased glucose variability in terms of microvascular and macrovascular complications in type 1 diabetes is less clear; more data in are needed.
I found two recent papers using CGM. This will give better data on day to day glucose excursions but expense means short trials and small numbers of subjects (doubt if there will ever be another long term trial like the DCCT/EDIC with CGM).
1) looked at a very small sample of T1s with and without microvascular complications. They used a CGM for 2 weeks. This did find that those with complications had a higher degree of variability in terms of SD and MAGE though HbA1cs were comparable. They concluded 'This supports the hypothesis that increased GV might be associated with MVC in type 1 diabetes and that HbA1c may not describe diabetes control completely.'
( standard deviations (4.1±0.6 vs. 3.4±0.8 mmol/L; ) .)
http://online.liebertpub.com/doi/abs/10.1089/dia.2013.0205
2) A similar shorter trial with T2s some with, some without, micro albuninuria also found a significant association with SD and Mage but this was lost when further statistical analysis took place and so they concluded 'At least in terms of relative measures of glycaemic variability, we failed to demonstrate an independent association between glycaemic variability and albuminuria extent in patients with inadequately controlled Type 2 diabetes'
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...ionid=4F735EF9D41894B64CF9E6397EE80AE0.f01t03
These types of trials don't show the degree of variation before the development of complications so won't , in any case really settle the debate.
I do think that people who consistently have a relatively low HbA1c are really unlikely to be having very large glucose variations because they tend to be proactive. They are probably far less likely to be on the glucose roller coaster : very high levels, overcorrections followed by very low levels and then over correcting and high levels again. What some people call a spike, is no different to the rise that occurs in non diabetics.