42 Country study - fascinating

[CherryAA]

"Irrespective of the possible limitations of the ecological study design, the undisputable finding of our paper is the fact that the highest CVD prevalence can be found in countries with the highest carbohydrate consumption, whereas the lowest CVD prevalence is typical of countries with the highest intake of fat and protein. The polarity between these geographical patterns is striking. At the same time, it is important to emphasise that we are dealing with the most essential components of the everyday diet."

http://journals.co-action.net/index.php/fnr/article/view/31694

 

[douglas99]

It would be interesting to see the geographical pattern of the countries involved.
I've found the poorest countries generally survive on the highest carbs, (rice, potato, pasta, cous cous), do the most manual work, have no medicine, and lower care standards.
The more affluent diet eats a lot better, don't need to eat cheap filler, have more sedentary work, have better medicine, and higher care standards.
So, the figures aren't really surprising in that context.

 

[badcat]

Interesting - thanks for sharing

 

[Art Of Flowers]

These 42 countries are all in Europe. It is interesting to see in Table 1 where you compare the first and last column that where there is a positive correlation to raised cholesterol there is usually a negative correlation to CHD and CVD mortality. So cereals lower cholesterol, but increase Heart Disease mortality and cheese raises cholesterol, but lowers Heart Disease mortality.

 

[douglas99]

These 42 countries are all in Europe. It is interesting to see in Table 1 where you compare the first and last column that where there is a positive correlation to raised cholesterol there is usually a negative correlation to CHD and CVD mortality.

Interesting fact, very relevant to the published study.
Moldova is one of the poorest countries we're proud to be a member of the Europe with.
GDP per head is $1, 848 per annum, and falling.
The only export is agriculture, which is also the staple diet.
(Well, possibly the other export is human trafficking, but let's not count that one as sustainable hopefully)
Another interesting fact, UK GDP per head is £43, 642.
We earn as much in three years, as they do in a lifetime. (And that lifetime is about ten years shorter than ours)

Everything in context.
I'd rather live in the uk and eat carbs personally, than live in Moldova and eat beef.

 

[Lamont D]

Another report which was discussed on the BBC news.
Nine out of ten areas (in Europe) which has the highest number of people in poverty is in the UK!

 

[douglas99]

Another report which was discussed on the BBC news.
Nine out of ten areas (in Europe) which has the highest number of people in poverty is in the UK!

I think you'll find the reality is the regions in the shock report were in a carefully selected area of northern Europe, not actually the real Europe. It also carefully manipulated areas in the countries, unlike the study above, which seems to compare the entire country.
We're around second, behind Germany in the EU.
It's sometimes easy to be fooled, and only see what the studies want you to see.

 

[Mbaker]

I believe the safest option for all is to have full blood tests, as I recently did. I did not want to swallow hook line a sinker that LCHF was a panacea, for weight, blood sugar and other health markers.

The only issues I can see with full blood tests are costs (not sure how much more this is over HbA1c, or general well man / woman tests), and if surgeries took initial figures back in the day, so that we have a baseline for comparison. For my personal circumstances LCHF (or at least my version, nuts / seeds, berries, loads of vegetables, cheese, olive oil, butter, coconut / oil, fish, meat (need to take some more as one point below threshold for haemoglobin (134, should be 135 and above), low carb meals, has a positive effect on CVD, based on blood numbers, other numbers such as VO2 max and how I feel).

 

[Art Of Flowers]

The conclusion of the study ...

Our results do not support the association between CVDs and saturated fat, which is still contained in official dietary guidelines. Instead, they agree with data accumulated from recent studies that link CVD risk with the high glycaemic index/load of carbohydrate-based diets. In the absence of any scientific evidence connecting saturated fat with CVDs, these findings show that current dietary recommendations regarding CVDs should be seriously reconsidered.​

Clearly, they are saying that the Diet Heart Hypothesis as advocated by Ancel Keys after his flawed seven country study in 1958 is completely wrong and that diet fat actually decreased heart disease, not increases it. In addition it appears that high carbohydrate foods are associated with increased heart disease and mortality.

 

[bulkbiker]

So another nail in the coffin of the diet heart hypothesis..thanks for sharing @CherryAA much appreciated.

 

[urbanracer]

It would be interesting to see the geographical pattern of the countries involved.
I've found the poorest countries generally survive on the highest carbs, (rice, potato, pasta, cous cous), do the most manual work, have no medicine, and lower care standards.
The more affluent diet eats a lot better, don't need to eat cheap filler, have more sedentary work, have better medicine, and higher care standards.
So, the figures aren't really surprising in that context.

Source :- http://www.who.int/diabetes/global-report/en/

 

[douglas99]

View attachment 23211

Source :- http://www.who.int/diabetes/global-report/en/

It's not really relevant to the CVD study, but again, I'd rather be in the European region, which has had the smaller increase, from 5.3 to 7.3%, whereas others have over doubled in rate.
But again, it's down to statistics.
Without knowing population increases, or decreases, or population migrations, the numbers don't really say anything.

 

[Daibell]

Another report which was discussed on the BBC news.
Nine out of ten areas (in Europe) which has the highest number of people in poverty is in the UK!

Can you define poverty?

 

[douglas99]

It's relative for this study.
Simply the GDP per capita averaged over the European Union.

This gives you a base line, set at 100.
'poverty' in this study simply meant the lowest figures in the areas included.
(From memory, even though we're second as a country overall, if you carefully select the areas to compare, we come out at the bottom in some regions. We also come out in the top ten in others, so we do have a regional split. But the spending power is still over 55 in the worst region if I remember correctly. If you look at some countries, Moldova for example, I think it's about 15 across the entire country, by comparison)

 

[douglas99]

So another nail in the coffin of the diet heart hypothesis..thanks for sharing @CherryAA much appreciated.

I can monitor enough things to mostly prevent CVD, in the developed country I'm living in.

The full conclusion has the real kicker, that no one will see coming, until it's too late.
It repeated what other studies have found, or suggested.

"In fact, our ecological comparison of cancer incidence in 39 European countries (for 2012; (59)) can bring another important argument. Current rates of cancer incidence in Europe are namely the exact geographical opposite of CVDs (see Fig. 28). In sharp contrast to CVDs, cancer correlates with the consumption of animal food (particularly animal fat), alcohol, a high dietary protein quality, high cholesterol levels, high health expenditure, and above average height. These contrasting patterns mirror physiological mechanisms underlying physical growth and the development of cancer and CVDs (60). The best example of this health paradox is again that of French men, who have the lowest rates of CVD mortality in Europe, but the highest rates of cancer incidence. In other words, cancer and CVDs appear to express two extremes of a fundamental metabolic disbalance that is related to factors such as cholesterol and IGF-1 (insulin-like growth factor)."

I'm keeping animal fat, animal protein, and my cholesterol down.
And I'm even average height!

 

[Lamont D]

Can you define poverty?

Not being able to afford food, housing, power or other costs needed to be self sufficient!
Or below the breadline!

A lot of these families are working but on minimum wage, which is far too low!
A lot are the vulnerable, disabled, elderly, young and their benefits are getting reduced year on year!

It's totally shocking!

 

[Art Of Flowers]

This study is nothing to do with poverty. It is purely about the impact of diet on heart disease.

To summarise, high carbohydrate diets are associated with higher mortality, and higher fat diets with lower mortality.

 

[bulkbiker]

I can monitor enough things to mostly prevent CVD, in the developed country I'm living in.

The full conclusion has the real kicker, that no one will see coming, until it's too late.
It repeated what other studies have found, or suggested.

"In fact, our ecological comparison of cancer incidence in 39 European countries (for 2012; (59)) can bring another important argument. Current rates of cancer incidence in Europe are namely the exact geographical opposite of CVDs (see Fig. 28). In sharp contrast to CVDs, cancer correlates with the consumption of animal food (particularly animal fat), alcohol, a high dietary protein quality, high cholesterol levels, high health expenditure, and above average height. These contrasting patterns mirror physiological mechanisms underlying physical growth and the development of cancer and CVDs (60). The best example of this health paradox is again that of French men, who have the lowest rates of CVD mortality in Europe, but the highest rates of cancer incidence. In other words, cancer and CVDs appear to express two extremes of a fundamental metabolic disbalance that is related to factors such as cholesterol and IGF-1 (insulin-like growth factor)."

I'm keeping animal fat, animal protein, and my cholesterol down.
And I'm even average height!

I think that overall you are twice as likely to die from CVD than cancer in Europe at the moment..
I'm hopeful that my diet will reduce the risk of either eventuality and that I can choose the time of my departure

 

[douglas99]

Not being able to afford food, housing, power or other costs needed to be self sufficient!
Or below the breadline!

A lot of these families are working but on minimum wage, which is far too low!
A lot are the vulnerable, disabled, elderly, young and their benefits are getting reduced year on year!

It's totally shocking!

If that was the measure, none of the counties would appear in the survey you quoted earlier.
Ironically, London, (one of the best performing areas, has a high degree of child poverty by your definition of 'poverty')

 

[douglas99]

This study is nothing to do with poverty. It is purely about the impact of diet on heart disease.

To summarise, high carbohydrate diets are associated with higher mortality, and higher fat diets with lower mortality.

It's a long study for someone who hasn't written it to reduce to one line.
If we want one line, how about
'Health expenditure – the main confounder in this study – is clearly related to CVD mortality,'

So, the actual people who carried out the study agree the countries expenditure is a confounder.
And, ironically, the countries GDP affects both health expenditure, and diet.
But I certainly agree, if you have a very poor, cheap carb diet, you'll die faster than living somewhere you can afford a better balanced diet.