And so it begins: Eat less meat or we’ll make you.

So it begins. Actually it has already begun. For anyone under the delusion that our benign benefactors in Parliament will chuck this plan into touch at the last minute, then I will explain it simply.

Our meat and dairy industry is destined for the scrap heap. The Government does not have to do anything to bring this about. All the required mechanisms and the legislation to invoke them are already signed into law and waiting. We voted on them last year and they all passed without comment or resistance.

I pondered on why the Red Meat Levy was slipped into the recent agriculture bill, It seemed innocuous, and benefitted the industry to have it. I also pondered about what makes us export live animals to Eastern Europe for slaughter then ship carcasses to Belgium for butchering and packing, then importing back into the UK. Then it struck me - these two are connected. Zero tariff trade and incentives to use off shore slaughtering gives enough support fotr those practices.

But then I thought why was Red Meat Levy so important. As I explained in ther posts it opens the door for red meat to be taxed and all that changes is the existing rate, The collection and operation is already active. However that is reallly only of serious benefit to the export . import operation, not so much local or domestic meat trade, When we leave the EU on 30th Dec this year, that changes, and the levy will be less benefit to the industry and almost redundant.

Then I looked at the emergency tariff schedules that will automatically be invoked if we have a No Deal Brexit, Remember, these hav e already been voted on and are set in legal stone now, I will merely put up a link to the relevant information and lrt you guys peruse it.
https://ahdb.org.uk/eu-and-uk-import-tariff-rates-for-selected-beef-products
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/temporary-tariff-regime-for-no-deal-brexit-published
https://ahdb.org.uk/knowledge-library/red-meat-route-to-market-project-report

Now red meat will be taxed on export and taxed again as packaged meat - see the magic? The gov does nothing and then there is an immediate car crash waiting to happen.

Note that grain soy and other big ag exports and imports are zero tariff under the emergency tariff plan

OK this is anecdotal, but on Euronews just now, they interveiwed a large livestock UK farme about how Brexit will affect him. He says that although the government is taking over the EU subsidy payments next year, he has been informed by DEFRA that subsidies to meat and dairy farmers will be halved from what they get this year, and reduce further on an annual basis. DEFRA have told him they want the land to be reassigned by 2024 at the latest. He is currently converting to holiday let and tourist campsite and selling his herd and machinery.

I think this article explains why that farmer chose to go for the tourist market
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...ricultural-revolution-break-eu-farm-subsidies

Edit to add: A thought. Maybe the DEFRA strategy is to reduce the basic EU CAP payment by 50% and then add incentive payments on top for environmental improvements such as biomass, diversity, tourism etc. Which is another way of looking at what that farmer said in the interview. Makes sense that way.

Oldvatr said:

OK this is anecdotal, but on Euronews just now, they interveiwed a large livestock UK farme about how Brexit will affect him. He says that although the government is taking over the EU subsidy payments next year, he has been informed by DEFRA that subsidies to meat and dairy farmers will be halved from what they get this year, and reduce further on an annual basis. DEFRA have told him they want the land to be reassigned by 2024 at the latest. He is currently converting to holiday let and tourist campsite and selling his herd and machinery.

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I need a shocking emoticon.

'But then I thought why was Red Meat Levy so important. As I explained in ther posts it opens the door for red meat to be taxed and all that changes is the existing rate, The collection and operation is already active. However that is reallly only of serious benefit to the export . import operation, not so much local or domestic meat trade, When we leave the EU on 30th Dec this year, that changes, and the levy will be less benefit to the industry and almost redundant.'

I have already explained that the Red Meat Levy is to fund the Agriculture and Horticulture developement Board, which an NGO,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_and_Horticulture_Development_Board
As you see it raises money from sources other than meat,
https://ahdb.org.uk/levy-information
There could be a tax on red meat but they would have to go through an Act of Parliment, and I am sure farming organisations would have a lot to say about it.

Honeyend said:

'But then I thought why was Red Meat Levy so important. As I explained in ther posts it opens the door for red meat to be taxed and all that changes is the existing rate, The collection and operation is already active. However that is reallly only of serious benefit to the export . import operation, not so much local or domestic meat trade, When we leave the EU on 30th Dec this year, that changes, and the levy will be less benefit to the industry and almost redundant.'

I have already explained that the Red Meat Levy is to fund the Agriculture and Horticulture developement Board, which an NGO,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_and_Horticulture_Development_Board
As you see it raises money from sources other than meat,
https://ahdb.org.uk/levy-information
There could be a tax on red meat but they would have to go through an Act of Parliment, and I am sure farming organisations would have a lot to say about it.

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Exactly. Act of Parliamen was passed into law last week to bring Red Meat Levy under Government control. Now the Chancellor controls the rates

I am still trying to unravel what these changes to the Direct Payment system will mean in light of what that farmer said in his interview.
I am not a farmer myself, and most of the farmers I know are either supporting the daisy crop, or retired, or sold up / gone bankrupt. However it starts with the EU CAP Dierect Payments scheme BPS which is a basic subsidy based on land actively producing goods on a hectare by hectare basis, The money goes to the farmer doing the work and they have to make an annual declaration on the percentage of their registerd land that is still being actively farmed. There are top up grants for biodiversity and other associated environmental work.

The DEFRA replacement seems to be a read across to be funded by the government, but there are some subtle changes going in, I believe. Firstly the new version of BPS seems to be cut by 50% and the top ups increased in scope to cover forestry and biomass and tourism and 'looking pretty'. The other change which seems to have been introduced by DEFRA is that the emphasis on land needing to be productive and activrly farmed each year has been downplayed, and payments are on land use category instead. Much of the EU payments went to the farmer, but now it seems most of the top ups go to the land owner instead for compensation for using the land for 'public goods' instead of agricultural goods. Certainly the Lords debate was hotly contested at onne point by a hill farmer who pointed out that (a) hill farmers do not own the land but have access under grazing rights, so will lose subsidy. (b) Many farms in the UK are council owned land managed by farm managers. Many farms are tenant or tied farms and again the farmer does not own the land. Not sure how they will distinguish between livestock, dairy, and arable farmers. Maybe the 50% cut is not applicable to land hectares producing arable crops,

https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farm...ltural-policy/income-support/basic-payment_en

The government replacment funding via DEFRA is only guaranteed to 2022. This is a transitional arragement until DEFRA have implemented the new deal policies.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...-bill-evidence-slide-pack-direct-payments.pdf

Apparently tomorrows Mail on Sunday is carrying a story about UK farmers not being needed after Brexit goes live. This is based on emails leaked from Whitehall between departments that we must be prepared to import all agricultural and fishing produce after those sectors have collapsed next year. There seems to be no mention of any support packages being prepared or expected to replace the EU CAP payments. which legally cease at the beginning of 2021 and the government temporary measures to carry them on also cease at the end of that same year. Written into law by Act of Parliament. Unless the gov is persuaded to produce replacement subsidies, then we are about to witness the total disintegration of our foodchain. I know Trump is having difficulty selling his surplusses to the Chinese and Canadians, so lets see what the Boris deal with Trump turns up.

At this point, given that it's the Daily Mail, and leaked documents, I will wait and see.

We should be aiming for self sufficiency at least in basic foods. Transporting food leads to increased CO2 that we are supposed to be reducing. "Taking back control" is not going to work if someone else can ration our food. The international services industry might decline but we will always need to eat.

Mr_Pot said:

We should be aiming for self sufficiency at least in basic foods. Transporting food leads to increased CO2 that we are supposed to be reducing. "Taking back control" is not going to work if their agenda does not need to be majung sensesomeone else can ration our food. The international services industry might decline but we will always need to eat.

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The person who originated these leaked emails is apparently the chief advisor to the new Chancellor. He is buddy of Dominic Cummins, and both of them worked as advisors for Michael Gove in various posts. He has no official post in government but seems to have major power in policy determination, He is also a buddy of Boris Johnson, so it seems Boris has bought in all his cronies just like Trump did. Most of Trumps advisors; and mates are either in jail or been given the boot now. We seem to be more accepting of having these mavericks running our lives. So much for Democracy and transparency.

It seems the normal logic has gone out of the window so yes importing all our food is not good for the planet, but then these guys have a different agenda and seem to be unrestrained.

I do not believe Boris Johnson and his cronies ever intended for us to leave with a deal.

I believe a deal with the US is ready and waiting.

I believe we no longer have even the pretence of a democratic government.

Actually this might be the very best thing to hit the news. It might just wake people up to the possibility that we will lose out food (meat) choices the way things are heading without action. They may just realise that ditching all our farms for veganism isn’t actually what they want and some balance and choice is in order.

HSSS said:

Actually this might be the very best thing to hit the news. It might just wake people up to the possibility that we will lose out food (meat) choices the way things are heading without action. They may just realise that ditching all our farms for veganism isn’t actually what they want and some balance and choice is in order.

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Unfortunately 99.98% of the UK population are in total ignorance of what has been happening in parliament in their name. They see Boris talk the hind legs off donkeys, and so do not believe he would sell us out so cheaply. It is the Pied Piper and the Emperors new clothes all in one. I do not think there will be any discord until the prices actually rise or meat goes off the shop shelves. People even on this site do not believe it could happen. Surely not? Why? Neverrrrrrr! But the laws were given Royal Assent last year, and we have the Sword of Damocles about to swing It is not Little Bo Peep this time..

Farmaggeddon thats what it is.

Oldvatr said:

They see Boris talk the hind legs off donkeys

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That is something I don't understand, to me he comes over as a waffling buffoon, where is that charisma that is claimed as his appeal? We need a new generation of intelligent politicians with integrity, having been to Eton should rule you out.

The Environment bill has been published and is progressing through parliament.

It seems inoccuous, but does have some subtle changes to allow the government to intervene in land matters to enforce regulation/under the Conservation Covenants section
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/2019-2019/0003/cbill_2019-20200003_en_1.htm

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...y-2020-environment-bill-2020-policy-statement

https://www.theccc.org.uk/2020/01/2...and-use-needed-to-deliver-net-zero-emissions/

I did not see anything alarming on my first read through, but then it could be hidden in plain view as a one liner somewhere in the text. Nothing jumped out at me I must say. No mention of livestock or meat in it at all. Nor was farm mentioned. The only obvious question to ask is why is it not pulling in the things that the CCC reports are demanding. I see no relation there which means it may be lurking somewhere else.. Onion skins anyone?

Oldvatr said:

Exactly. Act of Parliamen was passed into law last week to bring Red Meat Levy under Government control. Now the Chancellor controls the rates

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I have already explained the Act is so the money can be devolved to the country where the animal spent most of its life, as at the moment the money goes to the country where its is slaughtered. This is so a sheep that has spent all of it life in Wales, the levy is not given to the English board. This has been planned for a long time. This article is from 2015.
https://www.nfuonline.com/sectors/livestock/livestock-news/possible-new-mechanism-for-red-meat-levy/

Honeyend said:

I have already explained the Act is so the money can be devolved to the country where the animal spent most of its life, as at the moment the money goes to the country where its is slaughtered. This is so a sheep that has spent all of it life in Wales, the levy is not given to the English board. This has been planned for a long time. This article is from 2015.
https://www.nfuonline.com/sectors/livestock/livestock-news/possible-new-mechanism-for-red-meat-levy/

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I hear you and that is indeed the status of it today. However, the news that broke last night about the leaked emails which discussed removing all subsidies and tax breaks for farming in general, and the effect that a No Deal exit at the end of this year will have on meat prices is probably enough to totally decimate livestock farming in the UK. You will probably be correct in saying the Red Meat Levy would not be used in the manner I prescribed, but the end result of other Acts of Parliament will do the same job instead, When the Chancellors Chief Advisor is telling him of a better strategy to follow, they may not need to play around with this Levy since the chances are it will be totally redundant because there will be no livestock to slaughter.