Covid and Work, Covid Advice and General Chat

@Max68 there are quite a few sweeping statements in that post, do you have any links or references to share please? Especially in relation to the following.

Max68 said:

Asymptomatic spread is certainly the main form of transmission in the community

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Max68 said:

It also has to be argued that immunity is possibly short lived because we continue to read about people picking up the virus weeks/months after they have already had it so it suggests that Covid possibly mutates far more regularly than other viruses.

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Edited to correct typo

Max68 said:

We were never on the shielding list to start with though, unless these new rumours suggest that might change?

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The talk and I stress it is only that is of enhanced shielding of vunerable categories even to the
point of including all over fifties in a future lockdown. What that would look like is pure speculation for instance they might be still be expected to work but not to socialise in anyway at all.

Goonergal said:

@Max68 there are quite a few sweeping statements in that post, do you have any links or references to shatter, please? Especially in relation to the following.

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I am obviously not Max but.

" Harvard Global Health Institute said Tuesday. “All of the best evidence suggests that people without symptoms can and do readily spread SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. In fact, some evidence suggests that people may be most infectious in the days before they become symptomatic — that is, in the presymptomatic phase when they feel well, have no symptoms, but may be shedding substantial amounts of virus.”

https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/09/who-comments-asymptomatic-spread-covid-19/

A review published in the Annals of Internal Medicine by Daniel P. Oran, AM, and Eric J. Topol, MD, of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California, estimated that asymptomatic patients could make up 40% to 45% of all SARS-CoV-2 infections, and that these patients could potentially transmit the virus for longer than 14 days.

https://www.healio.com/news/primary-care/20200612/is-asymptomatic-spread-common-in-covid19

"
People who have recovered from Covid-19 may lose their immunity to the disease within months, according to research suggesting the virus could reinfect people year after year, like common colds.
In the first longitudinal study of its kind, scientists analysed the immune response of more than 90 patients and healthcare workers at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS foundation trust and found levels of antibodies that can destroy the virus peaked about three weeks after the onset of symptoms then swiftly declined.
Blood tests revealed that while 60% of people marshalled a “potent” antibody response at the height of their battle with the virus, only 17% retained the same potency three months later. Antibody levels fell as much as 23-fold over the period. In some cases, they became undetectable.
“People are producing a reasonable antibody response to the virus, but it’s waning over a short period of time and depending on how high your peak is, that determines how long the antibodies are staying around,” said Dr Katie Doores, lead author on the study at King’s College London. "


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests

Max68 said:

The whole problem with a virus is that if someone takes a risk it's not just themselves alone that are party to their own risk. Person One insists despite being higher risk they would prefer to go about their business normally. Thus leaving Person One at risk not only to themselves but infecting others within their own family, friends but also strangers unless of course Herd Immunity is the target!

With a lockdown if everyone in the country (an unrealistic proposal of course) shielded for say a month then technically if you go by the science the virus would be eradicated within that month. If it can't spread it dies. As I say an unrealistic proposal because society needs food, water and power etc so the reason as to why the virus wasn't eradicated was due to I suspect five main groups. 1. Key Workers and their families (along with patients, children in schools etc those that were cared by for them or were in contact with them). 2. General public and their families going about accepted business. (shopping, exercise etc). 3. Care Homes. 4. Returning travellers from abroad. 5. Those that flouted the rules. No blame attached to individuals bar number 5 although the Government certainly must take the blame for 3 to 5.

Asymptomatic spread is certainly the main form of transmission in the community so the Governments "advice" saying not to go into work etc or to self isolate if you have symptoms whilst obvious does nothing to prevent the main cause of transmission which is the asymptomatic spread.

However one form of transmission has not been discussed in much detail bar the odd rumour I have read and that is how long someone could spread the virus "after recovering" from it. After all we have all been in a scenario that we go back to work after a dose of flu or norovirus after our symptoms have cleared up, but is it possible that possibly certain people could be infectious days/weeks "after recovering"? It also has to be argued that immunity is possibly short lived because we continue to read about people picking up the virus weeks/months after they have already had it so it suggests that Covid possibly mutates far more regularly than other viruses.

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Indeed it is and the only way those who are more vulnerable can protect themselves is strict social distancing ,which is perfectly possible until come to work environment and accessing work etc.
I've just read the Mirror article and there are some interesting suggestions such as specific times for vulnerable groups to access services ,shops etc. Special risk assessments for 50plus. Government saying it's all speculation and no such plans being made etc which doesnt mean much as so far individual government ministers often seem not to communicate with each other. It does seem out of character for them to actively plan anything.
They do mention the protective shield for most vulnerable but no comment on its withdrawal.
In essence it does come down to work. If you are retired and not working you can choose to socially distance. If you are unwell and unable to work you have extra vulnerability in that may be at risk from carers/ family members bringing the virus to you.
In the middle are those at risk but working. I cant help but think we will will not be dealt with until opening up the economy is no longer viable and or strict lockdown for everyone.
I also think things may only change when more people perceive the risk to everyone not just a small group.
Despite evidence to the contrary I think there is still a mindset it's just a touch of flu with no serious consequences. I think people just stopped listening, especially if they live where infection rates are low and they dont know anyone affected.
I've never forgotten the extremes other countries such as China went to to decontaminate areas where Coronavirus was.
There are no guarantees of immunity. There doesn't seem a lot of publicity about those who have survived virus and long term effects.
Its almost to awful to contemplate but I fear that it may take a large amount of deaths or long term illness in those who are viewed as less vulnerable before something drastically changes both in government action and peoples perception.
I can see how the choice is between public health and the economy. It would be foolish not to see that we could be heading for a life changing economic crash.At times I can almost have sympathy with the government the future is incredibly uncertain, any decision is going to have a massive negative impact on someone. That said the very least they could do is be honest and transparent.

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JohnEGreen said:

I am obviously not Max but.

" Harvard Global Health Institute said Tuesday. “All of the best evidence suggests that people without symptoms can and do readily spread SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. In fact, some evidence suggests that people may be most infectious in the days before they become symptomatic — that is, in the presymptomatic phase when they feel well, have no symptoms, but may be shedding substantial amounts of virus.”

https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/09/who-comments-asymptomatic-spread-covid-19/

A review published in the Annals of Internal Medicine by Daniel P. Oran, AM, and Eric J. Topol, MD, of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California, estimated that asymptomatic patients could make up 40% to 45% of all SARS-CoV-2 infections, and that these patients could potentially transmit the virus for longer than 14 days.

https://www.healio.com/news/primary-care/20200612/is-asymptomatic-spread-common-in-covid19

"
People who have recovered from Covid-19 may lose their immunity to the disease within months, according to research suggesting the virus could reinfect people year after year, like common colds.
In the first longitudinal study of its kind, scientists analysed the immune response of more than 90 patients and healthcare workers at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS foundation trust and found levels of antibodies that can destroy the virus peaked about three weeks after the onset of symptoms then swiftly declined.
Blood tests revealed that while 60% of people marshalled a “potent” antibody response at the height of their battle with the virus, only 17% retained the same potency three months later. Antibody levels fell as much as 23-fold over the period. In some cases, they became undetectable.
“People are producing a reasonable antibody response to the virus, but it’s waning over a short period of time and depending on how high your peak is, that determines how long the antibodies are staying around,” said Dr Katie Doores, lead author on the study at King’s College London. "


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests

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Thank you John for giving us the science on the subject.

Brunneria said:

yes.

Over 200 kids infected (over 1/3rd of the camp) and 51% of the kids aged between 6 and 10. No masks used.

And then they closed the camp down and sent all the kids home to spread the virus to their families...

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Memo to self : Avoid singing and cheering at all costs

Oh dear. The latest news speculation is that its young people who should be told to stay indoors.! I predict a riot,or two. Apparently us over 50s are to vital to the economy,yayy! Of course it's all it's all rabid speculation, although I have seen mention that such ideas are deliberately leaked to the press to gauge public reaction!
Of course the over 50s does include Boris and a lot of the cabinet . Maybe to be extra safe they could be sealed in somewhere? Without wifi . Or 4G. Or telephone lines. Or carrier pigeons. Or any method of communication other than a white flag for when they are prepared to act a decent human beings

Boris Johnson's 'back to work' plea snubbed as millions won't return to offices
EXCLUSIVE: Many big companies have already confirmed they do not expect the majority of workers to return to the office any time soon

I am very pleased to hear this as it should help reduce the crowds on public transport and leave it safer for those who absolutely have to use it every day or even part of the week. The home workers are still doing their jobs and keeping the economy running. It is pointless to get them back in the office endangering themselves and others, they are already helping keep the wheels of the economy turning whilst staying indoors.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/millions-wont-return-offices-boris-22458678#source=push

lindisfel said:

Thank you John for giving us the science on the subject.

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Guessing you mean "some scientific opinions"?

Sorry, Bulkbiker I have given up on bickering.

Apparently news today that the world beating track and trace is not going to work in the next wave. Surprised? Not really?!
D.

lindisfel said:

Sorry, Bulkbiker I have given up on bickering.

Apparently news today that the world beating track and trace is not going to work in the next wave. Surprised? Not really?!
D.

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Must admit the news today does feel more disheartening than usual. After the somewhat wild speculation its seems that the government is disinclined to change anything, pubs will remain open etc. Schools will return in September. Apparently the guidelines for schools and parents are on Gov.Uk. Their attitude is economy above all else. The guidelines are there and if for some reason you are vulnerable sort it out yourself, we've done our bit.
As their world beating track and test system is failing miserably they now seem to be relying on a new test that gives results in 90minutes. IF its viable I'm sure be very helpful. Trouble is,as a high risk person I dont want the virus at all.!
With the constant bickering about masks it does seem that people have forgotten one important issue. Yes masks can give a false sense of security and can pose risk if not used and removed correctly. Unless you go top grade PPE they protect others rather than the wearer. The reason the government held back on advice to wear them wasnt to do with any of those factors. The simple fact was at the height of lockdown any PPE was rarer than hens teeth! Have people forgotten Matt Hancock's equivalent of the cheques in the post whilst waiting for supplies to be flown in 'any minute now '? Care home providers were admonished for not providing PPE out of meanness. There are I expect a few. To be brutally honest residents are a source of income and you would have to be incredibly stupid to forgo 50 grand a year per resident to save on PPE! The simple fact was it wasnt there,any supplies that were officially available were given to the NHS,and there still wasnt enough. So its survival of the fittest. Shielders and those at high risk whilst those less at risk flock for meal deals and desperately hunt for a staycation! Theres not a lot those who are high risk/ shielded can do. We are totally reliant on the compassion and ethics of employers. If that's non existent next stop is GPs. They often cant or wont sign you off due to your risk of the virus if not shielded.Even then it's a strange situation as in reality you are fit for work, it's the environment you work in that poses the risk to your health. The only way you can prove it's a risk is to to expose yourself to a virus that if it doesnt kill you has the potential to leave you with long term health problems. Hobsons choice I think they call it.!

Max68 said:

Hit the nail on the head 100%. If I was a cynic I wouldn't be surprised if the Government would be quietly pleased with an increase in deaths thus creating a nice windfall of Inheritance Tax coming the Governments way and creating vacancies in the job market!!"allegedly, possibly, said tongue in cheek, maybe," Just covering myself!!

It is very strange where we have gone from shield or protect the vulnerable to let them take care of themselves! And yet you can't at work can you? I've said before all that walking alone, click and collect, shopping online etc goes out the window when I am back in a small unventilated classroom with kids and staff!! Even if I wear a mask I'm just protecting everyone else from me and if no-one else wears one what's the point?! Yet I can't even make a decision to cash a pension in early and live off it for the next year or so because you can't withdraw one until you are 55 without being taxed heavily!!

That's the problem the Government are pushing full steam ahead with the economy but they aren't thinking outside the box when it comes to vulnerable groups.

EDIT - Interestingly I have just received this this evening from mum's care home,.

"The government have also advised that we drop down to one visitor per resident and it be the same person for every visit."

Obviously bar the difficulty in deciding whether it's me or my sister that is the one person, why is the Government putting in cautious guidelines like this in a care home but yet opening schools to all and sundry>!?

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I think a major trait of the government is that the plight of anyone less fortunate than him is simply not on his radar. He is in his own privileged little bubble. It's well documented hes not one for reading policy documents. I dont think he can comprehend that someone might have to be forced to choose between work and maintaining their health or keeping a roof over their head. If he had any insight I really dont think it bothers him.
Care homes is an interesting one. I think the one visitor rule is to reduce the number of contacts. Of course everyone varies, it could be a partner and daughter who themselves are shielding. On the other hand a lady I worked with had a massive and very lovely family ranging from two daughters to great grandchilderen. They organised it so that people popped in every day. Goodness knows how they will choose. It certainly will cause a lot of upset but when I think of all the contacts each of those people have it makes sense. I'm surprised the government have shown an consideration at all towards care homes. That said it looks as though they care but it's not costing them anything.!
Why consideration however minor towards care homes but not schools? Both settings are incredibly similar. Problems with social distancing, asymptomatic individuals etc.
Again Boris probably assumes all schools resemble the private schools of his experience. Same way I think we hoped his experience of Coronavirus and the nurses who supported him might lead to change,nope that group dont contribute to Tory fundsenough to be given any special attention!
Childeren must return to school so their parents can return to work. Even childeren who have been shielded are said to not be at risk and so can go back according to Gov.Uk. Any parents who argue will be fined! The ripples are immense from high risk childeren to everyone who works in the school. Many parents rely heavily on grandparents for childcare who may themselves be high risk or shielding.
Sadly those affected are collateral damage. The official line is that individuals will be safe because the schools will be safe. People must return to work. Should anyone point out to Boris that reality is completely different he will probably just stick his fingers in his ears and sing ten green bottles very loudly! We can hope that something might change in the next month but I think it will have to be something massive for Boris to alter his course!

All the photos I see of schools show kids sat one to a desk meters apart. This is not going to be the reality in state schools ! Social distancing is not required simply as it will not fit by a long way. Only half classes or smaller will come anywhere near that. Private schools may manage it.

The Downing Street Defence is a similar idea in the way it works to the Nuremberg defence!

Q. Why did you not quarantine flights from Spain in March?
Defence: We were working on the best scientific advice!
Re: we were working to scientists 'orders'.

It a useful defence because politicians can use it repeatedly.
D.

Whilst I don’t think for a minute the government is coming out of this smelling of roses wasn’t it last week the media was up in arms that quarantine and limitations on travel were being imposed too early, whilst this week it is up in arms it was imposed too late the first time around???

The media is all over the place, but condemnation of what happened in march was an MP committee report on government inaction.

Aberdeen shows up the problem of Asymptomatic transmission.
Apparently pub crawling individuals/parties going round tens of pubs spreading virus in Aberdeen and the environs.

Nicola is not amused!
One thing we can guarantee, she will not act ambiguously like some.
D.

MrsA2 said:

Memo to self : Avoid singing and cheering at all costs

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They infected each other with a corona virus not THE corona virus. We know kids do spread flu and colds very easily! All the studies to date point to not only low risk for kids themselves but also much reduced levels of infectivity (BBC confirms this ).
Think we should let them sing and bear in mind that the partisan US media has an interest in hyping fear of the virus and the reverse..