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Covid/Coronavirus and diabetes - the numbers

Discussion in 'Diabetes Discussions' started by Lupf, May 15, 2020.

  1. Dusty911

    Dusty911 Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    Thanks lupf for your inciteful help around the data. I realise that we might not like the findings sometimes but personally id rather know than not. Also I know that it's impossible to use any data to predict certainly any individuals outcomes the picture is to complex for that.
    The best that we can do is try to keep control good for us and minimise the risk of infection.
     
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  2. Dusty911

    Dusty911 Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    I do wonder how statistically relevent 1.1 to 1 to 1.05 is to a lay man they sound pretty much the same and close to the 1.4 ish you already suggested for type 2 well controlled without co morbidities?
    @Lupf
     
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  3. bulkbiker

    bulkbiker Type 2 · Oracle

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    But it also depends on where you live, what you eat and multiple other things.
    Where there are very limited cases (like in Pakistan) the risk of death will be very different to the UK.
    Pakistan has far fewer infectious people and way less deaths.. the risk factors there are very different to those in the UK.
     
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  4. Tipetoo

    Tipetoo Type 2 · Expert

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    Cruise ships might have the edge on nursing homes here in Australia, although there is a new late running contender from a Victorian meat works cluster.

    Australia's total Covid 19 death count got to 100 the other day....
     
  5. Lupf

    Lupf Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    Are you talking about the risk vs HbA1c? In this case the difference is statistically relevant. If you read the table it says
    < 48 1.11 95% CI 1·04 – 1·18)
    49- 53 1 (reference value)
    This means that with 95% confidence level or probability we expect this value to be between 1.04 and 1.18. However, each person is different, so you should be very careful drawing conclusions, in particular if the difference is so small, the variation between individuals is much larger. You said so in your other post yourself.
     
  6. HSSS

    HSSS Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    No one can give you your personal risk in these forums. If you look at these reports my understanding is 1 is the baseline. Add and subtract various other factors from there. Age, control, gender, comorbidities, weight, ethnicity, etc etc

    You cannot change your age, gender or type 1. Maximise health that is in your control and be cautious as much as possible really is the message to be taken from this. Yes diabetes and it’s complications are an extra risk. They are for most illnesses and covid is no different. But the risks for any group are overall in the balance positive. Some more so than others admittedly. But any multiples are of the original risk factor and if that is small so is the multiple. Eg 3.5 of 0.5% is still pretty small (1.75%)
     
  7. HSSS

    HSSS Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    I’m not sure of the point you are making.

    Australia has fared particularly well in comparison to most places. Perhaps better decisions made at better times, perhaps other factors. None of which are in the control of the general population. Be very grateful whatever.

    I’m sorry to say from here your comments sound flippant. Probably not meant that way but still ....Yes you shut down for a short while, yes life has been inconvenient for a while, yes a few boats caused the few problems you have had. I’m not sure you realise the effect tens of thousands rather than 100 has had on livelihoods, fear,loss, death and devastation here in the U.K. I lived in Australia a fair while. Aussies are sturdy, blunt stock and I love that. Many of my friends live not so far from you. Many of them are nurses, many in icu. Believe me I wish I was there not here. Reminding us of that right now isn’t helpful. It’s rubbing our noses in our mess, boasting how much better it could have been.

    I realise I’m probably being somewhat reactive right now and quite possibly misunderstanding but my emotions are high. No personal criticism is intended but please remember your experience is not everyones.
     
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  8. MTS1980

    MTS1980 Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    Sir I am trying find a general morality rate for type 2 in early 40s according to a new study and a credible organisation like the NHS because there is so much Confusion around it (twice)likely to die than general population this statement is Alarming isn’t it ? that’s all I am trying to find out Pakistan has low numbers because of reasons unknown yet regards
     
    #128 MTS1980, May 21, 2020 at 1:27 AM
    Last edited: May 21, 2020
  9. HSSS

    HSSS Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    You have asked this same question many times in these forums. We cannot give you a specific risk. Yes type 2 is twice the risk of non diabetic. Being young is a good point and lowers risk (baseline of 1 is in the 60’s). Having good control is a positive so do your best here. Having a good weight is positive so again do your best there. Most importantly remember if the fundamental and underlying risk of dying is low a doubling of risk means a lot less. Eg 1% doubled is just 2%. And if your locality has very few cases (Pakistan) you are a lot less likely to catch it in the first place, particularly if you are exercising good precautions.
     
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  10. MTS1980

    MTS1980 Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    I appreciate you reply it’s a good one but plz be nice to me I’m just a fellow diabetic not many 3 times but I guess that’s repetitive but not many times have a very good day thanks again
     
    #130 MTS1980, May 21, 2020 at 3:20 AM
    Last edited: May 21, 2020
  11. MTS1980

    MTS1980 Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    Oh and btw here the mortality rate is 2.2 percent so double that is = 4.4 so I guess survival rate is 95.6 according to this study ok fair enough now I know what we are dealing with that’s all I wanted I know someone will say other variables are involved but generally speaking it’s the number mentioned above not a data scientist but kept it simple thanks for the help again guys
     
  12. MTS1980

    MTS1980 Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    Weight is 89kg height is 6,1 BM1 is around 26 I’m overweight I my bmi needs to be 25 Hey but I’m trying sorry very sensitive about weight issue I even don’t tell ppl I’m diabetic because if they haven’t seen me or don’t know me personally they assume oh he must be a fatty but my doc says it’s genetic my parents had it .anyways I have started avoiding ppl since my diagnosis
     
    #132 MTS1980, May 21, 2020 at 3:34 AM
    Last edited: May 21, 2020
  13. Tophat1900

    Tophat1900 Type 3c · Well-Known Member

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    No one can give you an answer really, @HSSS covered it rather well. Take measures to reduce risk of infection and do what you can to improve/your health. That is all I have done personally. Don't allow the fear mongering media to ruin your day either.
     
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  14. Mike d

    Mike d Type 2 · Expert

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    You have a very good command over the English language. Far better than my Urdu @MTS1980 :)
     
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  15. Bill_St

    Bill_St Type 1 · Well-Known Member

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    I do find such levels of some concern when they are compared with tests that themselves have a comparative substantial variance.
    upload_2020-5-21_10-39-0.jpeg
     
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  16. Brunneria

    Brunneria Other · Moderator
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    This is why is it very unhelpful for people to get hung up on the exact level of risk, down to 0.1%
    That way lies madness and obsession.

    No test is 100% accurate, and every test carries a variable margin of error dependent on a whole host of factors.
    But that is just common sense.

    We all know if our HbA1cs are on target or not, and if our prick tests are on target, or not. Even the newly diagnosed will have had a blood test and know how high or low their result was, and 'how diabetic' they are.

    Then most of us know if we have co-morbidities, and how old we are.
    The more, the higher, the older, and the more care we should be taking.
    Once we start adding in things like how good our diets are, and how fit we are, and whether we have a history of chesty coughs, or similar, then we are entering blind guesstimation anyway.

    All that any of us can do is make a judgement call, based on the information we have at our disposal at the time, and then make a sensible choice about future actions, based on that judgement call.
     
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  17. Mike d

    Mike d Type 2 · Expert

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    Backstreet boys lyrics changed from "I want it that way" to "I want you 6 Foot away"
     
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  18. Lupf

    Lupf Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    Individual variance is much larger than small differences, even if these are statistically meaningful. I've said this, you've said it @Brunneria and @HSSS @Tophat1900 are all saying this, so @MTS1980 and others please stop worrying about small differences and updates when new studies appear.

    What is important is the big picture. By far the largest difference is age. In the study by Valabhji's group they studied ~10'000 people who had diabetes and died from Covid-19. Of these only 23 were below 40, and 90 were 40 to 49 years old. Very few of the dead below 50 was T1. More than half of those who died were > 80 years old. Roughly speaking, every 10 years age difference your risk of dying from Covid-19 doubles.

    BTW, This is a very useful tool, thanks @Bill_St. I would have like to have this already when my last HbA1c test came out higher than I expected.
     
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    #138 Lupf, May 21, 2020 at 1:05 PM
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2020
  19. HSSS

    HSSS Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    Didn’t mean anything other than trying to be reassuring. Nowhere really knows their mortality rates yet. Too much uncertainty around who is getting symptoms enough to even suspect infection, who is getting tested and therefore diagnosed, how deaths are being recorded....it’s all guesstimates and possibly wildly inaccurate for the whole population. If many are infected and recover without positive tests the mortality rates look far worse than they actually are. If deaths are being wrongly classified that too effects rates.
    It’s very scary right now for people, especially those identified in vulnerable groups. My anxiety is being fuelled by many things not least scaremongering headlines. But. Hospital rates are just the worst, most serious tip of the iceberg and these are what we hear mostly. Realistically what can any of us do other than be as logical as possible : take appropriate precautions, manage our personal health, weight, bloods etc to the best of our ability and then try and focus on the positive stats and the odds for all being on survival and in many/most groups overwhelmingly so.
     
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  20. Bill_St

    Bill_St Type 1 · Well-Known Member

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    and nice that BMJ actually give some numbers to compare ;)
    upload_2020-5-21_15-9-29.jpeg
     
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