COVID the real numbers? Not all doom and gloom.

DCUKMod · Sep 15, 2020

Max68 said:
Anyone hear anything about a possible mutation in the virus leaving it more contagious but less deadly? "If" the figures of infections going up but deaths coming down continue is that a possibility?

For a virus to survive, it needs a live host. If the virus kills all it's hosts, it too will die in time, so it is not unheard of for viruses to mutate a bit, in order to survive.

(My statements are all very simplistic, but that's the essence of it.)

Fairygodmother · Sep 15, 2020

I really don’t see that there’s a difference between cases and infections, and I’m bemused by the idea that someone who’s infected but asymptomatic can’t infect others.
I think it’d be lovely if immunity were gained amongst the young, but it’s still too early to tell if this would be a long term immunity.
It’s a real shame that responses to Covid, and the numbers infected and dying from Covid in the U.K. have become blurred by political desires to be seen to have done well.

bulkbiker · Sep 15, 2020

Fairygodmother said:
I really don’t see that there’s a difference between cases and infections,

There isn't but there is difference between people who "test positive", who can be showing signs of having been in contact with a virus for weeks after they have "recovered" (assuming they were ever even ill), and people who are actually ill and infectious

The tests that are currently being used cannot successfully identify who is infectious and who isn't and probably aren't fit for purpose yet are being used for decision making.

So we have a poor testing protocol being used to inflate numbers which are then inflated even more by crazy rules like this

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/ne...er&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebarweb

These are then used "reasons' to frighten people. Madness.

bulkbiker · Sep 17, 2020

Life returning marginally to normal..?

Hubs birthday yesterday so went out for a posh lunch (second time eating out since March).
Apart from the slightly distanced seating and compulsory hand sanitiser not a mask in sight.
Not a single customer or staff wearing one.. how refreshing.

bulkbiker · Sep 17, 2020

Fairygodmother said:
I really don’t see that there’s a difference between cases and infections, and I’m bemused by the idea that someone who’s infected but asymptomatic can’t infect others.
I think it’d be lovely if immunity were gained amongst the young, but it’s still too early to tell if this would be a long term immunity.
It’s a real shame that responses to Covid, and the numbers infected and dying from Covid in the U.K. have become blurred by political desires to be seen to have done well.

This might explain the point a bit more clearly.

Hotpepper20000 · Sep 18, 2020

This is happening in my backyard.
Exciting and promising stuff.
Not all about a vaccine.
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/edmonto...wcm/9f35a846-dfaf-490b-876f-ba51ca875283/amp/

lucylocket61 · Sep 18, 2020

Hotpepper20000 said:
This is happening in my backyard.
Exciting and promising stuff.
Not all about a vaccine.
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/edmonto...wcm/9f35a846-dfaf-490b-876f-ba51ca875283/amp/

This is dated February. Have you any recent information?

Hotpepper20000 · Sep 18, 2020

lucylocket61 said:
This is dated February. Have you any recent information?

I’m looking for more recent info. Just got busy. He was on a local radio station this morning.
I’ll post here when I find something.

urbanracer · Sep 19, 2020

An interesting article about virus mutations.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...hould-we-be-worried-sars-cov-2-changing-covid

Fairygodmother · Sep 20, 2020

Another interesting article, this time about stats. And as a plus, we all know how inadequate the testing and recording is here in the U.K.

https://apple.news/Ag6RTcCqyRpClF-Es-D2Q7A

Brunneria · Sep 20, 2020

Fairygodmother said:
Another interesting article, this time about stats. And as a plus, we all know how inadequate the testing and recording is here in the U.K.

https://apple.news/Ag6RTcCqyRpClF-Es-D2Q7A

Thank you.
I despair sometimes when I see people fixing everything on ‘no of deaths’ with zero recognition that the deaths today reflect symptomatic infections that started approx 21-28 (or more) days ago. Comparing deaths today with test/symptomatic infections/cases today is comparing apples with oranges.

Then factor in the age of the infected patients a month ago (largely youngsters) and infections today (youngsters and a steady bleed upwards into older age groups), and it becomes apples with peaches.

Then factor in the higher number of less badly symptomatic cases (for reasons discussed to death all over the place). Lemons.

and basically anyone presenting a simple sound bite know-it-all explanation is just talking rubbish. It is far more complex than that, and the variables require proper consideration. And that is without even mentioning data collection differences, delays and the fact various countries seem to just ignore WHO criteria guidelines (they may not be ideal guidelines but at least if we all used them, there would be fewer discrepancies).

bulkbiker · Sep 20, 2020

Brunneria said:
Thank you.
I despair sometimes when I see people fixing everything on ‘no of deaths’ with zero recognition that the deaths today reflect symptomatic infections that started approx 21-28 (or more) days ago. Comparing deaths today with test/symptomatic infections/cases today is comparing apples with oranges.

Then factor in the age of the infected patients a month ago (largely youngsters) and infections today (youngsters and a steady bleed upwards into older age groups), and it becomes apples with peaches.

Then factor in the higher number of less badly symptomatic cases (for reasons discussed to death all over the place). Lemons.

and basically anyone presenting a simple sound bite know-it-all explanation is just talking rubbish. It is far more complex than that, and the variables require proper consideration. And that is without even mentioning data collection differences, delays and the fact various countries seem to just ignore WHO criteria guidelines (they may not be ideal guidelines but at least if we all used them, there would be fewer discrepancies).

"Cases" Start to go up in mid July

Deaths yet to significantly rise still and certainly not rising from early to mid August as they "should" if the case numbers were correct.

This could be down to improved treatment methodology.. less people getting severely ill.. fewer vulnerable people around or of course that the number of "cases" is incorrect
BUT what it does show is that the 3 week lag of deaths following cases rises is not there at the moment.
It may well start to re-appear but for now its simply not there.

I despair when people refuse to believe the data that is presented in front of their own eyes.

Brunneria · Sep 20, 2020

bulkbiker said:
"Cases" Start to go up in mid July
View attachment 44145
Deaths yet to significantly rise still and certainly not rising from early to mid August as they "should" if the case numbers were correct.
View attachment 44146

This could be down to improved treatment methodology.. less people getting severely ill.. fewer vulnerable people around or of course that the number of "cases" is incorrect
BUT what it does show is that the 3 week lag of deaths following cases rises is not there at the moment.
It may well start to re-appear but for now its simply not there.

I despair when people refuse to believe the data that is presented in front of their own eyes.

This has all been discussed, ad nauseum, up thread.
Yet you are still over simplifying.

bulkbiker · Sep 20, 2020

Brunneria said:
This has all been discussed, ad nauseum, up thread.
Yet you are still over simplifying.

Indeed I may be .. however there is still zero evidence that deaths are rising in line with "cases" which is what you claim should be happening.
The data, unfortunately for you, does not support this view at the moment.

Brunneria · Sep 20, 2020

bulkbiker said:
Indeed I may be .. however there is still zero evidence that deaths are rising in line with "cases" which is what you claim should be happening.
The data, unfortunately for you, does not support this view at the moment.

again, you focus down on a simple idea.

my post #191 was addressed to much broader subject matter, mentioned in @fairygodmother’s link (the fact I quoted her post was a giveaway) which covered many different kinds of COVID related stats, in other counties, not just your current preoccupation.

The world is a bigger place than a small island with a few million people on it.

I realise you want to argue, but you won’t get an argument from me, especially when I consider your ‘evidence’ nothing more than a small piece of a much larger, complex jigsaw.

bulkbiker · Sep 20, 2020

Brunneria said:
again, you focus down on a simple idea.

my post #191 was addressed to much broader subject matter, mentioned in @fairygodmother’s link (the fact I quoted her post was a giveaway) which covered many different kinds of COVID related stats, in other counties, not just your current preoccupation.

The world is a bigger place than a small island with a few million people on it.

I realise you want to argue, but you won’t get an argument from me, especially when I consider your ‘evidence’ nothing more than a small piece of a much larger, complex jigsaw.

I have no desire to argue simply to present some evidence .
I have done so.
Sweet dreams x

lucylocket61 · Sep 21, 2020

Greater circulation of the virus in general around the world, as evidenced by the increased rate of positive cases, means an eventual greater spread to the vulnerable and higher risk of them catching covid-19.

Just as an outbreak of measles in an unvaccinated population means more measles is circulating, increasing the risk of catching it.

There are good reasons why quarantine has been a regular and effective tool in containment of an infectious illness for centuries.

Jaylee · Sep 21, 2020

bulkbiker said:
I have no desire to argue simply to present some evidence .
I have done so.
Sweet dreams x

Did I ever tell you I have an Itallian ancestory.. Yep, some muso came to the UK & knocked my great grandmother up. (Call her "groupie.")
Genes. There are are also (in short. ) some "stuff" happening with Itallian Swiss as opposed to more upbeat German Swiss? Cultural? Or genetics...?
So, let's take a step back (& not breath to deeply) as we "smell the coffee.."

& I'm a guy that respects your questioning on "nice guidelines."
I just try not to look to hard through the "round window." Even with the fact I haven't had a recent check up on the macula oedema lately.

It may not be doom & gloom. But I don't wanna try it on for size as I have a family with worst CMs than me who may just need me... A few neighbours too..

I feel you are supporting. But some of us walk different paths..

Brunneria · Sep 21, 2020

This is potentially some very good news indeed.
Fascinating discussion covering T cells, cross immunity between covid and previous infections, and a very hopeful indication of the numbers of people who develop T cells against covid (cytotoxic T cells) while being asymptomatic or having v mild symptoms (covers London, NY and Sweden, plus several other countries, in a number of studies, all with good news).
Also reference to people still having T cell immunity to SARS some 17 years after they had the infection
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563.full

ed. to correct the link, as pointed out by BB below.

Brunneria · Sep 21, 2020

bulkbiker said:
Useful link but it seems to go via youtube for some reason which my computer doesn''t like..?

See if this is more direct.

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563.full

Thanks.
I have changed the link in my post to the direct link to the BMJ

COVID the real numbers? Not all doom and gloom.

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