1. Get the Diabetes Forum App for your phone - available on iOS and Android.
    Dismiss Notice
  2. Guest, we'd love to know what you think about the forum! Take the Diabetes Forum Survey 2020 »
    Dismiss Notice
  3. Diabetes Forum should not be used in an emergency and does not replace your healthcare professional relationship. Posts can be seen by the public.
    Dismiss Notice
  4. Guest, stay home, stay safe, save the NHS. Stay up to date with information about keeping yourself and people around you safe here and GOV.UK: Coronavirus (COVID-19). Think you have symptoms? NHS 111 service is available here.
    Dismiss Notice
Dismiss Notice
Find support, ask questions and share your experiences. Join the community »

COVID the real numbers? Not all doom and gloom.

Discussion in 'Diabetes Discussions' started by bulkbiker, Sep 3, 2020.

  1. lucylocket61

    lucylocket61 Type 2 · Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    4,726
    Likes Received:
    2,001
    Trophy Points:
    178
    Note the word "entirely" in the post people are addressing.

    No ambiguity there.
     
  2. NicoleC1971

    NicoleC1971 Type 1 · Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,452
    Likes Received:
    1,534
    Trophy Points:
    198
    On the topic of inflammation and insulin from the excellent Ben Bikman (good book out now called Why We Get Sick). Not actually listened to this interview but am just listening to the book:

    I don't think anyone is saying that inflammation is all bad but there is a connection to our metabolic health and our current viral issue e.g. low vitamin D levels and Brady Kinon /cytakine storm (over reaction of the immune system) and insulin issues are very much connected to diet.
     
  3. lucylocket61

    lucylocket61 Type 2 · Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    4,726
    Likes Received:
    2,001
    Trophy Points:
    178
    It is quite possible that we are at the start of the second wave, hence the low death rate until the exponential growth in infection reaches critical point again.

    It's also worth bearing in mind that the way deaths in are calculated and included changed 4 weeks ago.
     
  4. bulkbiker

    bulkbiker Type 2 · Oracle

    Messages:
    16,640
    Likes Received:
    11,422
    Trophy Points:
    298
    Not quite sure I see why the "second wave" starting would cause a fall in deaths to below the average for the time of year?

    There is no "exponential" growth in positive test results, the numbers are increasing (along with the number of tests carried out) but so far deaths and hospitalisations do not appear to be increasing in step.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  5. Brunneria

    Brunneria Other · Moderator
    Staff Member

    Messages:
    20,949
    Likes Received:
    34,590
    Trophy Points:
    298
    I'm really hoping that the higher vitamin D levels at the end of the summer in the northern hemisphere is a contributory factor to the lower death rates. That would be great for those of us in a position to keep those levels high with D3 supplements over the winter. Hopefully those same people will also take K2 since it is so beneficial to the usage of D.

    Having said that, a huge number of people are not in a position to supplement, or don't know about the benefits of it.
    So they may well be impacted later over the winter when their natural D levels fall which would then impact the death figs.
     
  6. KK123

    KK123 Type 1 · Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,894
    Likes Received:
    1,837
    Trophy Points:
    198
    Now that IS good news and an indication at least that social distancing in all its forms is working. x
     
  7. urbanracer

    urbanracer Type 1 · Moderator
    Staff Member

    Messages:
    4,594
    Likes Received:
    3,405
    Trophy Points:
    198

    I wonder why deaths in care homes are down?
    upload_2020-9-15_10-13-29.png
    Would be funny if wasn't so sad.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  8. bulkbiker

    bulkbiker Type 2 · Oracle

    Messages:
    16,640
    Likes Received:
    11,422
    Trophy Points:
    298
    Do you have a link to the report?.. seems a tad gloom mongering..and overly pessimistic
    Can't find it on the Knight Frank website..
     
  9. NicoleC1971

    NicoleC1971 Type 1 · Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,452
    Likes Received:
    1,534
    Trophy Points:
    198
    Note the words 'worst case scenario' ! Rather like Neil Ferguson's 500,000 UK and 50,000 Sweden deaths neither of which came to pass.
    I hope we have learned that the aged are extremely vulnerable in these settings and are therefore protecting them from this and other viruses. Those that have survived may simply be the strongest of the bunch?
    However as we go into the Winter upper respiratory season there are those that are left susceptible to whatever bug comes in (most people needing this care have a life expectancy of a further 2 years).
    So it is sad but if we look at it from a perspective over a number of years our excess death rate for this year is still no greater than it has been in some bad flu years in spite of the vaccine for the latter eg, year 2000
    My grandma is in one of those places and is currently locked down due to a couple of cases of Covid in the staff. She is 94. I can't ask her but I wonder how many of those residents might swap living in lockdown til next Spring and beyond versus taking the risk of illness and death alongside seeing their families again?
     
  10. MrsA2

    MrsA2 Type 2 · Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    815
    Likes Received:
    1,198
    Trophy Points:
    158
    I know in the earlier days of pandemic, care homes were refusing new residents, even those normally sent there after hospitalisation for other non-covid reasons.
    As all are businesses they can't sustain such low numbers for long. Along with the shutting down of the non-covid NHS, this lack of care is going to prove disastrous in the long term
     
  11. Jamie H

    Jamie H · Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    126
    Likes Received:
    89
    Trophy Points:
    28
    From my experience social distancing has completely broken down and deaths and serious illness continue to fall... Must be something else at play. Admittedly it's not quite back to normal but not far off it... I think at this stage it is to do with the demographic becoming infected... Though the German numbers are also encouraging but still feel the elderly need protected which is going to be hard to do if case numbers in the young keep increasing
     
    • Agree Agree x 3
  12. lucylocket61

    lucylocket61 Type 2 · Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    4,726
    Likes Received:
    2,001
    Trophy Points:
    178
    You are ignoring the point that a number of these death are, and were preventable. This is negligence in allowing the exposure. Many things which could have been done to protect the vulnerable were not done, despite the urging if the medical profession to do them.

    If you think that the death rate is comparable to bad flu years you are looking at the wrong figures.
     
  13. bulkbiker

    bulkbiker Type 2 · Oracle

    Messages:
    16,640
    Likes Received:
    11,422
    Trophy Points:
    298
    Depends on the years you use to compare.

    http://inproportion2.talkigy.com/


    Screenshot 2020-09-15 at 13.08.06.png
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
  14. NicoleC1971

    NicoleC1971 Type 1 · Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,452
    Likes Received:
    1,534
    Trophy Points:
    198
    No.
    Of course if was negligence. We seeded the infection into nursing homes as did many other countries.
    Figures wise you might be interested to see this from the ONS:
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...rofexcesswinterdeathssince19992000/2015-11-25

    Curious that nobody remembers those bad years but then the government was not paying us to stay away from work nor telling us to be terrified at every available opportunity.
     
  15. Brunneria

    Brunneria Other · Moderator
    Staff Member

    Messages:
    20,949
    Likes Received:
    34,590
    Trophy Points:
    298
    I agree the German figs are very encouraging - esp since they have been properly age adjusted, which is not something I have seen in the UK figs. But (as I said above) the Vit D situation could have a huge amount to do with it.
    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/decli...ates-across-all-ages-analysis-of-german-data/
    They also say that they have accounted for the 3 week lag between positive test result and death, which is very helpful.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  16. bulkbiker

    bulkbiker Type 2 · Oracle

    Messages:
    16,640
    Likes Received:
    11,422
    Trophy Points:
    298
  17. NicoleC1971

    NicoleC1971 Type 1 · Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,452
    Likes Received:
    1,534
    Trophy Points:
    198
    It is logical to assume that high case numbers will develop into hospitalisations and deaths but the actual Case Fatality Rates are encouraging whereas back in March and April we had much less tests but deaths were rising.
    This guy is posting on Bitchute but Peter Hitchens has highlighted the same thing:

    Andrew Neil Mixes It With Sky News. Google won't let me link you direct but it is s worth a listen. If you want the figures skip past the opinion about 2 minutes in.
     
  18. NicoleC1971

    NicoleC1971 Type 1 · Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,452
    Likes Received:
    1,534
    Trophy Points:
    198
    It is not inevitable that the young will infect the elderly and lets not assume that the elderly are unwilling to take the risk just as they do each year.
    Also if the healthy get infected and don't have symptoms that makes it that bit harder for the virus to jump to the next person aka Community Immunity.
    Right now moving to Sweden seems the best option!
     
    • Like Like x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
  19. Max68

    Max68 · Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    531
    Likes Received:
    591
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Anyone hear anything about a possible mutation in the virus leaving it more contagious but less deadly? "If" the figures of infections going up but deaths coming down continue is that a possibility?
     
  20. bulkbiker

    bulkbiker Type 2 · Oracle

    Messages:
    16,640
    Likes Received:
    11,422
    Trophy Points:
    298
    They are positive test results not "cases" or "infections".

    Have a look at the way PCR tests work (or don't) in identifying people who have been exposed to a virus.
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
    • Useful Useful x 1
  • Meet the Community

    Find support, connect with others, ask questions and share your experiences with people with diabetes, their carers and family.

    Did you know: 7 out of 10 people improve their understanding of diabetes within 6 months of being a Diabetes Forum member. Get the Diabetes Forum App and stay connected on iOS and Android

    Grab the app!
  • Tweet with us

  • Like us on Facebook