Is 47.7% the Low Carb T2D Reversal Benchmark?

[Chuckannuck]

I came across an article on the Virta Health blog, "How Much Money Could Your State Save with Diabetes Reversal?" What's interesting is that the article quotes a 47.7% reversal rate in calculating savings to health administrations through reversing type 2 diabetes through Virta's low carb approach.

It prompted some questions in my mind:
- are we keeping track of T2D reversals and T2D reversal maintenance rates, with low carb and for that matter, with other approaches?
- what kind of reversal rates are we getting? And what do they depend on?
- what kind of reversal rates are possible?
- and of course, the critical question: If I flag this to my local health administration, do I get 10% of the 1st year savings?

Since "reversal" is the new "management" when it comes to T2D, I thought I'd ask.

 

[Guzzler]

Until long term studies are in there is no way of knowing. And yeah, I am saving the NHS money and I want my cut!

 

[Chuckannuck]

Until long term studies are in there is no way of knowing. And yeah, I am saving the NHS money and I want my cut!

You have a point on the NHS money. If they're committed to spending money for pharmaceuticals, who are we to get in the way? I would think a 50/50 split of the savings is fair. Will you be invoicing them or is there a NHS form for that?

 

[Guzzler]

You have a point on the NHS money. If they're committed to spending money for pharmaceuticals, who are we to get in the way? I would think a 50/50 split of the savings is fair. Will you be invoicing them or is there a NHS form for that?

The forms will, no doubt, be in triplicate and require the attention of 17 managers and take as long as.... oooh five years to be computed? I won't be holding my breath

 

[bulkbiker]

You have a point on the NHS money. If they're committed to spending money for pharmaceuticals, who are we to get in the way? I would think a 50/50 split of the savings is fair. Will you be invoicing them or is there a NHS form for that?

Good luck with that. Dr Unwin and other low carb GP's have the lowest costs for diabetes in their respective CCG's but I bet they don't get a bonus.. and if anyone deserves one it's them.

 

[ringi]

I think Virta is doing a lot better if you lock at the number of people who have reduced their drug usage. But they can only quote the published data; there is a new set of data about to be published in a medical journal.

When working out the reversal rate you must take into account “self-selection”, as people are “encouraged” by their employer to do the Vita program, Vita may get less motivated people then we do.

@LowCarbBG(Dr Unwin) gets about 25% reversal, in his case, there is no selection going on, therefore his results should predict what all NHS GP could do if they used the same methods as he does.

I think we are seeing about 75% reversal rates in people with recent cases of Type2 who engage with the forum. But it could be people wait until they see good results before they decide to engage…..

Let's remember that the real savings to the NHS come from people keeping their Ac1 under about 53 without needing drugs other than Metformin. Hence our standard for "reversal" is better then what the NHS needs.

 

[Chuckannuck]

Good luck with that. Dr Unwin and other low carb GP's have the lowest costs for diabetes in their respective CCG's but I bet they don't get a bonus.. and if anyone deserves one it's them.

I don't see a problem here. Unwin and the low carb docs get 50%. Guzzler gets 50%. NHS keeps spending. Everyone's happy.

 

[Chuckannuck]

I think Virta is doing a lot better if you lock at the number of people who have reduced their drug usage. But they can only quote the published data; there is a new set of data about to be published in a medical journal.

When working out the reversal rate you must take into account “self-selection”, as people are “encouraged” by their employer to do the Vita program, Vita may get less motivated people then we do.

@LowCarbBG(Dr Unwin) gets about 25% reversal, in his case, there is no selection going on, therefore his results should predict what all NHS GP could do if they used the same methods as he does.

I think we are seeing about 75% reversal rates in people with recent cases of Type2 who engage with the forum. But it could be people wait until they see good results before they decide to engage…..

Let's remember that the real savings to the NHS come from people keeping their Ac1 under about 53 without needing drugs other than Metformin. Hence our standard for "reversal" is better then what the NHS needs.

Thanks ringi. Eye opening.

One of the things I am getting is that reversal rates are not just one number, there are different factors at work.

One of the strong factors affecting reversal seems to be where in the type 2 natural history the nutritional therapy intervention takes place. Sooner is better.

 

[ringi]

"reversal" is also not well defined, Virta defines it as someone controlling their BG, getting an AC1 under 52 and using no drugs other then Marforin while keeping to LCHF for life. Before you say that is not "reversal", remember that a lot of their clients come to them with uncontrolled BG while using over 200 units of insulin a day and have had Type2 for a very long time!

LowCarbGP is dealing with people a lot more like most of us, but he has to count people in his results who have decided not to do what he says.....

The Newcastle Diet ONLY get very motivated people, and it is very unlikely someone using 200 units of insulin a day would be allowed to take part in their research.