• Guest - w'd love to know what you think about the forum! Take the 2025 Survey »

COVID 2019 Comorbidity with Diabetes

lucylocket61 said:
just a thought. A higher BMI might help as lack of energy to fight this disease is cited somewhere as part of the problem, and not being able to get enough energy into people on ventilators. Cant find where I read this, but it sounds sensible to me.
Click to expand...

Sorry LL were you able to view that link? I could read the article earlier but now one needs to log in to read it.

It basically states that over 2/3rds of hospital admissions have high BMI.
.
 
urbanracer said:
Sorry LL were you able to view that link? I could read the article earlier but now one needs to log in to read it.

It basically states that over 2/3rds of hospital admissions have high BMI.
.
Click to expand...
I had exactly the same problem with Pulsetoday last week.
It appears you get to read one article, then if you go back, they want you to sign in as a healthcare pro.
 
Brunneria said:
I had exactly the same problem with Pulsetoday last week.
It appears you get to read one article, then if you go back, they want you to sign in as a healthcare pro.
Click to expand...

Discovered that clearing my internet history lets me back in !
 
This person with a high BMI didn't go to hospital.
And my BMI is even higher now as I ate my way through the virus.
 
lindisfel said:
Looks like cats will have to self isolate in their own gardens!
Click to expand...
It was interesting to note that owners of cats were recommended by a British vets group to keep their cats in.
Cats like being stroked and it is possible for them to pass virus from casual human contact to their owner by picking it up on their fur from another human.

Nb Some cats get food from more than one home, they are independent, and not loyal like dogs.
D.
 
There is some suggestion, and it could be an overestimate, that from data elsewhere the rate of coronavirus in the general population is c.10% of the population or even less.
This has serious implications and its to be hoped we find a vaccination, or drugs to mitigate its effects very soon.

In the present state of isolation and treatment with near 10,000 dead out of c.10% of population. If 80% of population get this disease eventually.... this is a truly horrific disease we are fighting.
D.
 
Last edited:

This is behind a paywall but you can get the gist from the headline .....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...ready-have-immunity-coronavirus-german-study/

And here in the UK an Oxford university suggested 2 weeks ago that infections had already reached 50% - much higher than official data suggests. Although this has been called into question.

The problem is, nobody really knows - yet.
 
I hope your right.
I am afraid we shall see its real potential from undeveloped high population countries.
D.
 
lindisfel said:
I hope your right.
I am afraid we shall see its real potential from undeveloped high population countries.
D.
Click to expand...

Yes, the future looks pretty scary for 3rd world nations.

Here in the UK we have approx 30 physicians per 1000 people. In India it's 7 and across much of central Africa it's less than 1. They will simply not be able to cope.

Black and Asian communities are not doing well (for various reasons) in the data from the US either.
 
Text of article mentioned by @urbanracer in post #1390

Many people may already have immunity to coronavirus, German study finds
Large numbers may have been infected without knowing it – and that means lockdown could soon be lifted, scientists in Germany say


Many more people may have been infected with coronavirus and acquired immunity than previously thought, according to a groundbreaking study in Germany.

Scientists studying the town at the epicentre of the country's first major outbreak said they had found antibodies to the virus in people who had shown no symptoms and were not previously thought to have been infected.

Initial results released on Thursday suggest that as many as 15 per cent of people in Gangelt, in Heinsberg district, may already have immunity – three times as many as previous estimates.

The findings suggest the mortality rate for the virus in Germany is just 0.37 per cent — five times lower than current estimates.

"This means a gradual relaxation of the lockdown is now possible," Prof Hendrik Streeck, the virologist leading the study, told a press conference. "Because the people in Germany have been so careful and disciplined, we are now able to move on to the second phase."


But Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, dashed hopes of an early end to the lockdown, saying: "We must not be reckless now. We could very quickly destroy what we have achieved."

The study in Gangelt is the first in Europe to research the effects of the virus on an entire community. Scientists from the University of Bonn are testing around 1,000 people from 400 households for antibodies as well as signs of current infection.

Initial results, based on around half the tests, found two per cent of inhabitants are currently infected and 14 per cent had antibodies to the virus. Allowing for overlap, that suggests 15 per cent of people in the town now have immunity, compared to the previous estimate of five per cent.


"The 15 percent is not that far from the 60 per cent we need for herd immunity," Prof Gunther Hartmann, another of the study's leaders, said.



"With 60 to 70 per cent herd immunity, the virus will completely disappear from the population. Then the elderly are no longer at risk."

The figures cannot be extrapolated to the rest of Germany because Gangelt had a higher rate of infection, but the study's authors said they were grounds for cautious optimism. An immunity rate of 15 per cent is already enough to slow the spread of the virus significantly, they said in a joint statement.

The findings suggest the mortality rate of the virus may be lower than previously thought. The study found a mortality rate of 0.37 per cent, compared to Johns Hopkins University's current estimate for Germany of 1.98 per cent.

The study's authors said their findings could be closer to the real figure for the virus because they had detected so many previously unknown infections.

"The much lower mortality rate in Gangelt is explained by the fact this study is detecting all infected people, including those with no symptoms or very mild illness," they said.

Antibody testing for the virus is still in its early stages. Chinese scientists released a study confirming they had detected antibodies for the first time this week, but warned they were unable to detect any in some patients known to have been infected.

It is unclear how long any immunity to the virus conferred by a previous infection will last, although experience with similar viruses suggests it will be in the range of a year to 18 months.

"I think the most important thing all governments can do to address the virus is to get reliable data," Prof Streeck, the study leader, told The Telegraph. "We don’t yet know enough about this virus."

The authors said the findings were grounds to begin lifting the current general lockdown and move on to a phase of isolating the vulnerable groups most at risk.

Jens Spahn, the German health minister, had earlier suggested an easing of the lockdown could be possible after Easter, saying: "We are seeing a positive trend, but it must continue. If it does, we will be able to talk… about a gradual return to normality after the Easter holidays."

But Mrs Merkel appeared to play down hopes for an early easing of restrictions amid concerns people may be less disciplined about social distancing over the Easter holidays. "I would like to be the first to tell you everything is as it was and we can go back to normal, but that’s not how it is," she said.
 
Pipp said:
"The 15 percent is not that far from the 60 per cent we need for herd immunity," Prof Gunther Hartmann, another of the study's leaders, said.
Click to expand...
I don't understand this bit - how is 15% not far from 60%.?
 
I spent some time this morning looking at the number of COVID-19 deaths around the world. The UK's population is 20% of the US's population, yet for the last two weeks, UK deaths are close to 50% of US deaths. Why is that?

Total Deaths

February 27... UK 0... US 0
March 5... UK 1... US 12
March 12... UK 10... US 41
March 19... UK 144... US 206
March 26... UK 578... US 1,296
April 2... UK 2,921... US 6,081
April 9... UK 7,978... US 16,691

When did the UK begin "shelter in place" efforts? For us in Washington state, schools were closed beginning March 16, restaurants, bars, gyms, theaters, etc. closed March 17 (though "take out" food is still okay). We're about three and a half weeks into this now, and it's already been decided to continue through May 4 which will be at total of 7 weeks.
 

Isn't that what they have done from the word go, though...
Hancock in Jan saying all in hand .

Yesterday too frightened to answer the question on how many HCP have died

BMA letter saying govt putting doctors lives at risk over PPE in this morning BBC feeds.

One of them is lying.
With HCP dying I don't believe it's them

The only constant is the dead.
And even there we don't count every one.

A Crisis fast turning into a Catastrophe.
 
Mr_Pot said:
I don't understand this bit - how is 15% not far from 60%.?
Click to expand...
The other thing I dont understand is how they know it will definitely give immunity after infection.

If we dont have a reliable test yet for antibodies how do we know?
D.
 

Winnie, comparisons between entire countries are not at this stage, helpful.

the death rates change dramatically over time, depending on how long the virus has been in an area.
Comparing the death rates between NY and a rural state is going to show massive differences, that then shift over time. NY started with a death rate of 0.3%what are they up to now? Over 4%?

This link gives a fascinating graphic comparing NY and different parts of the UK, at 4 days ago

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...st-among-globally-comparable-regions-11969502

death numbers come 2-3 weeks after infection, so that needs to be factored in, and as the disease spreads across the country that becomes a very complex, always changing calculation in different population centres.
Plus age of pop in an area (e.g. Florida)

in addition, different countries have different record keeping systems and different ways to record cause of death.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Menu
Log in
Register
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn More.…