Thank you this info is useful to me.Skin
Warning : The attached .pdf file of pictures is not pleasant viewing.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/bjd.19163
I thought I understood what we're up against with the COVID-19 pandemic, and now I'm not so sure...
Interesting. Post 'war' we will be given narratives to justify whatever our governments did or didn't do. Until we can know both the numerator/fatality and denominator/infection rates we can't know how fatal this is and therefore how proportionate are very draconian reaction has been.
It seems that the WHO and Neil Ferguson's worst case estimates were very pessimistic and there are plenty of virologists and epidimilogists that agree with this view based on the recent anti body studies that show just how many people have been exposed and how long the infection has been around prior to the known first cases e.g. much earlier than any containment or lock down tactics were deployed e.g. Parisian airport worker.
There has been excess death compared to the 5 year average but a large part of that hasn't been due to CoVid 19, something which the mainstream media is not talking about.
However what matters now is how we can get back to productive work given the fear and lack of confidence that even young and healthy people feel. W\e should all ask why our children can't go back to school or why healthy people can't get on with their jobs and not be dependent of the state.
Also liking the question about how we can improve the metabolic health of our population such that less people are vulnerable where they do not need to be.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-it-really-bats-pangolins-wuhan-animal-market
My son is convinced Covid-19 started in a lab, but with so many cover up's and people frightened to talk because of the consequences, will we ever know the real truth behind it all ?
Fascinating.. thanks for that.This 30 minute interview with a German virologist is well worth a watch. Well balanced and neither interviewer or scientist comes across as having a particular axe to grind.
Agreed the figures would be useful but how would they be collected? Also the various categories are not exclusive so you could have a factory worker who shops in a supermarket, travels by public transport and has children at school for example.Has anybody seen any analysis on the numbers of people, and the circumstances they are in, who are still catching this virus?
I would have thought this info would be vitally important in informing the reduction of lockdown in the UK, but I have seen nothing but articles numbercrunching the same basic stats and speculating. No sign of evidential decision making at all. Maybe that will come later (she says, hopefully)
What I mean is,
- are the new cases that we are seeing on a daily basis (4-6,000 a day) mainly individuals who fall into specific groups - those in care homes? or amongst those who are supermarket shopping? or health care workers? or are they people required to work outside the home? or those using public transport? Factory workers? Those whose work prevents social distancing? Are they keyworkers whose children are still attending school? (this is all speculation, of course, since I haven't seen any figs or analysis on this)
Whatever the figures are on these groups if there are obvious signs that one pattern of behaviour is leading to more infections, then that could be focused during the unLocking (as an example, maybe supermarkets are hotbeds of virus swapping, whereas public transport travellers aren't catching it, or vice versa, and so on for every other group).
Around here, the parks and roads are getting busier and busier, but people seem to be mostly complying with social distancing when on the street and in the park, and on the beach. Where the social distancing is failing massively, is in shops, though since I am not shopping more than once a week, my observation is very limited. Oh, and judging by the occasional singing drunk passing the house at 1am, there are still Lockins happening somewhere.
And of course, there are some people who are taking no notice. Yesterday, 3 people in their 80s stood on the pavement in front of my house in a clump for about half an hour, chatting about how long it was since they had seen each other. Maybe 2 feet between them, not 2 metres.
Agreed the figures would be useful but how would they be collected? Also the various categories are not exclusive so you could have a factory worker who shops in a supermarket, travels by public transport and has children at school for example.
Gave it a quick read and it says HR for diabetics well controlled is 1.5 in its own right. Be interesting to know if this is 1.5 of the assumed CFR of around 1% or it would be cross referenced to other parameters. Eg is it 1.5 of 0.1% for those aged 18-40? Also worth while to take into consideration how HR is calculated if there is more than one comorbidity.Haven't read this yet but looks very interesting and pertinent to this thread
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999v1.full.pdf
Gave it a quick read and it says HR for diabetics well controlled is 1.5 in its own right. Be interesting to know if this is 1.5 of the assumed CFR of around 1% or it would be cross referenced to other parameters. Eg is it 1.5 of 0.1% for those aged 18-40? Also worth while to take into consideration how HR is calculated if there is more than one comorbidity.
Of course I could be completely misunderstanding this as I'm not an expert on such studies!!
Yea I'm encouraged by it too however still not sure how to figure out how HR for diabetes works in conjunction with another HR say age or other factors.This study was posted hete a few days ago. What the study found is more clear by going to the article and reading the relevant sections. I found it both encouraging and motivating. Glad to see it mentioned here again.
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