It still goi g to come down to excess deaths over and above expected rates whether directly or indirectly caused by the pandemic and the response. Only when we can compare these figures to other countries taking significantly different actions will we know which way was ultimately more successful.
Also the period of time considered 6mth, a year, 5yrs might give quite different answers when considering the unintended casualties eg cancer, suicide, deprivation etc, and post pandemic actions ie do countries return to their old norms or adopt healthier lives......