i think it will be almost impossible to winnow ‘facts’ out of the recorded numbers for anything.
only yesterday I read that the reason Germany has such an astonishingly low C-19 death rate is not because people are not dying. Rather it is because the death certificates record cause of death differently from other countries, and if the COVID-19 made someone so ill that their heart gave out, then they are recorded as dying of heart failure, not C-19.
as
@HSSS says, we will only see anything clearly when the horrendous final numbers are in.