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Covid/Coronavirus and diabetes - the numbers

Discussion in 'Diabetes Discussions' started by Lupf, May 15, 2020.

  1. Jamie H

    Jamie H · Well-Known Member

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    So in short person under 40 has 7% of the risk compared to a person aged 50-59. Person with diabetes under 40 has 10% (7% x 1.5) of the risk of a person aged 50-59 that doesn't have diabetes. Same ratio as I thought just a 100th or so out!!

    Takeaway is the risk someone aged under 40 is quite small either way but as a diabetic still best to exercise caution and also awaiting partha kar's analysis!!
     
    #41 Jamie H, May 17, 2020 at 1:49 PM
    Last edited: May 17, 2020
  2. bulkbiker

    bulkbiker Type 2 · Oracle

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    Disagree.. Ive seen many "papers" saying many things that when you really delve into the depths don't really say what they purport to at all.
    Statin papers being a case in point.
    I'd rather read people who have an alternative point of view from the mainstream narrative and form my own opinions.
    Diabetes UK would claim that all the rubbish they spout is supported by "papers" ...
     
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  3. Lupf

    Lupf Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    To reach your own conclusion is exactly my point, However only when there are papers, scientists start to argue and disagree. Science is mainly about falsification. Unfortunately, a paper is no guarantee of substance, but absence of a paper is almost certainly not trustable.

    We all agree that Diabetes UK is still using outdated science or "rubbish" as you call it. When scientists started to look at the literature of where the claim of "fat is bad for you" they found that there is no evidence for this. Most likely the increase in heart attacks in the 50s and 60s was due to smoking and not to eating fat. Unfortunately, progress is slow and 40 years of being told that fat is bad for you cannot be eradicated overnight, even if this is established by all scientific studies since the 90s. Many doctors, but not all have realised this. Anyone doing LCHF demonstrates that it works.

    You also mention statin papers. I haven't followed this in detail lately, but in my understanding the claims that everyone with slightly elevated cholesterol should take them, have not been substantiated by more recent studies.

    Science is not perfect, but the scientific method is the best we have. Recall how many women died in childbirth, just because doctors did not wash their hands, despite midwifes having "known" this for centuries. However once Pasteur discovered bacteria, this made sense. Similarly with viruses, so hygiene is one of the most important ways to prevent infection with Covid.
     
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    #43 Lupf, May 17, 2020 at 3:46 PM
    Last edited: May 17, 2020
  4. Robinredbreast

    Robinredbreast Type 1 · Oracle

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    Great post :)
     
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  5. copilost

    copilost Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    I've enjoyed the things you posted. I like to read "out into the margins" on both/many sides, it's good for me. I try to avoid bias confirmation, i.e. just reading things I agree with. I'm not a spring chicken and I am still surprised by the extent of politics that influences science reporting. Honestly, daily my internal conversation goes "why is this in the press?", "why has this scientist/research centre made this statement?", "oh! because they've got skin in the game!" "doh!".
    Science is great but science is people and brings all things people to the party. People are most definitely not perfect. That said I do like my science, just the facts ma'am. :)
     
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  6. Tannith

    Tannith · Well-Known Member

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  7. copilost

    copilost Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    Not me thank Lupf :)
     
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  8. Picci

    Picci Type 1 · Well-Known Member

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    DKA.... you hit the nail on the head. Can you honestly imagine the strain on the NHS trying to keep a type one diabetic alive, with DKA on top of everything else?

    My general experience from the occasions I’ve been to hospital for surgery, (shoulder twice, foot once,) is that they will do anything to leave the control to you rather than have to deal with it themselves.

    And rightly so, we know how to manage our condition and I have been lucky enough to have nerve blocks for my three surgeries therefore I was able to test and adjust my insulin (pump) doses accordingly.

    We are NOT at increased risk of getting covid, the diabetic complications would kill us.

    I
     
  9. Jamie H

    Jamie H · Well-Known Member

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    I think we will know a lot more in the next few days... (says me who kept at the point about risk earlier). Perhaps, and it's just a theory...

    We know the risk of raised levels and resultant DKA correlates with severity of infection

    However it may be true also that the risk of getting severe infection in the first place correlates with the other risk factors mentioned. Ie obesity, age, control, other comorbidities etc.

    I.e. severe infection causes raised glucose levels but raised glucose levels (control) are a factor in how severely you get the infection in the first place.

    The NHS study showed control before (those with lower hba1c) infection impacted outcome and severity of disease.
     
  10. urbanracer

    urbanracer Type 1 · Moderator
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    The main theory is that the severity of the illness may be related to the 'viral load' a person receives.

    So if you only have a small exposure (low viral load) then the immune system has time to respond and fight the virus.

    With a large exposure (high viral load) the immune system is quickly overcome by the virus and cannot cope.
     
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  11. Jamie H

    Jamie H · Well-Known Member

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    Yea think that's definitely the case but wouldn't discount that some people are more prone to bad outcomes than others. It's just another contributing factor
     
  12. MTS1980

    MTS1980 Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    Pardon my ignorance but I believe everyone is trying to sound so technical well there are people like me kindly keep it simple what’s the mortality rate for someone who is 40 with type 2 with hb1ac around 6 ?
     
  13. Mike d

    Mike d Type 2 · Expert

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    No-one anywhere can possibly guess that with any accuracy. The permutations are endless. But your figures do look good
     
    #53 Mike d, May 19, 2020 at 12:07 AM
    Last edited: May 19, 2020
  14. Lupf

    Lupf Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    Hi @MTS1980
    The short answer is that the mortality rate for this person (you?) is quite low, about 0.6%.

    Here is how to estimate this. The average mortality rate from Covid is around 1.4%, for males it is twice as high, say 2.0%, compared to females at 1.0%. If you are healthy and around 40 you are about five times better off than the average healthy male, but if you have well controlled diabetes, (HB1Ac < 9.5, this factor reduces to about 3.3, so your mortality rate is about 0.6%. This is a simple estimate, just using the available numbers, but it gives the scale. For comparison, the average mortality rate of flu is about 0.1%, so at least 10 times lower then for Covid. your rate would be lower as flu is more dangerous for the elderly.

    hope that helps
     
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  15. MTS1980

    MTS1980 Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    Hey man thanks but what about this 98 percent survival rate is this number realisable or accurate ? Thanks a lot for replying I’m very worried
     
  16. MTS1980

    MTS1980 Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    Oh very kind and informative yes My hb1ac is Lower but man I have seen couple of very young deaths so I was scared what about this 98 percent survival rate number we see on a picture (in this thread ) Is accurate generally speaking because all I hear in news is deaths and what about this 1.40 number that means survival rate is above 98 ?
     
  17. MTS1980

    MTS1980 Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    Glad to know that you are a scientist it’s reassuring doctors here have no idea no idea absolutely
     
  18. Mike d

    Mike d Type 2 · Expert

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    Dunno if I'd put it quite that high but you're young so I think it's most unlikely given the death rates in Pakistan against your population are incredibly low
     
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  19. MTS1980

    MTS1980 Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    ! thanks for the reply best of luck great fight the British has put up with this bad virus we wish you good luck !
     
  20. Mike d

    Mike d Type 2 · Expert

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    The Brits will overcome ... but I'm Australian :)
     
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