EU - In or Out + Poll.

[tim2000s]

After the beating Cameron got last night by the audience and by Dimbleby, his waffled avoidance of answering questions about Turkey, his obvious panic, his misleading statements about social security benefits for immigrants, no way would I change my mind. He was totally mauled, and deservedly so. I was out, I am still out.

So, your vote is an anti-Cameron vote?

 

[tim2000s]

Yes but it's the only one dictating our lives through laws, trade regulations, etc.

Except that that is simply untrue. We have had to change UK acts of parliament in response to WTO and NATO rules, not to mention The European Convention for Human Rights (which is not an EU treaty, let's be clear). It's far from the "Only" one,

 

[Bluetit1802]

So, your vote is an anti-Cameron vote?

Absolutely not.

If he doesn't answer the simple but important questions I would have liked answered, and misleads, then either he doesn't know the answers or is deliberately not saying. What is he hiding? Quite a lot, I suspect. Nothing personal, but last night said it all to me about the remainers' case.

 

[Dillinger]

The reason I want to leave the EU is one of principal as it is an undemocratic union with the Commissioners who are unelected making the real decisions

The British government appoints its European Commissioner to represent the interests of the UK. There is no 'unelected government' calling the shots; it is a group of member states of which we are part of the Big 3 (that is France, Germany and us - which by the way was the reason the French were so opposed to our membership because by joining our influence meant theirs was reduced).

Please don't post that exit vote!

Best

Dillinger

 

[Dillinger]

I've been sent this today and it is very persuasive and in fact makes the whole thing quite terrifying. In these stark terms it really sounds like we are close to making a hugely important decision (to leave) without any good reason.

This is a Professor of Law whose specialist area is the EU and the constitutional implications of that for the UK.

He is voting remain but I think you'll agree the reasons he gives are very good and not at all party political. If you have 25 minutes to spare this is worth your time:

Best

Dillinger

 

[azure]

What I found most depressing about seeing David Cameron answer questions was the undisguised glee at some of the audience in vowing to vote Leave and therefore 'give Cameron one in the eye'.

The EU Referendum is NOT about party politics. It doesn't matter a jot whether you hate/love Cameron and the Conservative party. This is NOT about the Tories. It's about the future of the UK. If we had had this Referendum when any other party was in power, the 'right answer' would still be the same as the 'right answer' now.

For me, that 'right answer' is to Remain in the EU. I have children and I believe I'm making the right choice for them as well as myself. I don't think the EU is perfect, but i'm not prepared to take a huge gamble and leave the EU. It'll cause huge uncertainty for years to come, it'll probably mess things up financially for the whole country, and I feel it's a backward step.

People talk about the golden days when things were better, but we're not going to get back to those by leaving the EU. The problems I see in the UK arent the fault of the EU. Things like the housing problems have many causes, but have largely been caused by our own governments over the years. It's too easy to use the EU as some kind of bogeyman, and blame everything on it. I hear people complaining about all sorts of annoyances and how they'll be sorted if we leave the EU - but they won!t because 99% of the things they're complaining about are nothing to do with the EU whatsoever. It's just a Big Bad Wolf to pin all the UK's faults on.

 

[Catlady19]

In terms of the export of goods, the following figures seem to be the most commonly arrived at:

• 44% of the UK's exports go to the EU. Taking the Rotterdam factor out, it becomes 42%.
• 16% of the EU's exports come to the UK.

In terms of Services, you get:

• 7.5% of services exported by the EU are consumed in the UK
• Approximately 38% of services exported by the UK are consumed by the EU

As a result there's a fair bit of imbalance in these numbers. While we consume more of their goods than they of ours, they consume more of our services than we of theirs, which is why there would be a very interesting negotiation that took place.

According to fullfact.org:-

"The UK currently runs a large trade deficit with the rest of the EU. We imported about £60 billion more than we exported in 2014. The deficit has averaged about £40 billion in the past decade.

If the UK left the EU, the remaining EU would export more goods to the UK than anywhere else outside the bloc, if current shares remained similar.

This trade would be 16% of extra-EU goods exports, or around 3% of the value of the (remaining) EU economy."

In any case, my point was that the EU would still want to trade with the UK.

 

[noblehead]

What I found most depressing about seeing David Cameron answer questions was the undisguised glee at some of the audience in vowing to vote Leave and therefore 'give Cameron one in the eye'.

Sadly that has always been the case, even in local government elections people think by going against their better judgement they are sending out a message to central government.

 

[tim2000s]

According to fullfact.org:-

"The UK currently runs a large trade deficit with the rest of the EU. We imported about £60 billion more than we exported in 2014. The deficit has averaged about £40 billion in the past decade.

If the UK left the EU, the remaining EU would export more goods to the UK than anywhere else outside the bloc, if current shares remained similar.

This trade would be 16% of extra-EU goods exports, or around 3% of the value of the (remaining) EU economy."

In any case, my point was that the EU would still want to trade with the UK.

That's true - I'm not disagreeing that. The point is that tariffs are encumbered on imports. So on a World Trade Organisation basis, 44% of our exports would be would be subject to tariffs on the EU side, whereas 16% of the EUs exports would have similar tariffs applied in the UK.

Likewise, Services, which are now the mainstay of our economy, and not goods, would see 38% of our exports being subjected to the tariff structure as opposed to 7.5% of the EUs.

Neither of these are currently taxed at source and thus would have an increased price within the EU.

It is this disparity that is the issue and drives a disproportionate effect, and not the absolute numbers relating to exports.

 

[holdfast]

For me a lot of people are trying to over complicate the issue. I remember years ago talking to an Indian who had lived under the British Raj, seen the process of independence and seen the outcome. He said that whilst the administration of the Raj had generally been good, he would rather his country was run by Indians, albeit with some difficulties, than being subject to laws imposed by foreigners. In the end it was and is a question of sovereignty - regardless of the consequences.

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[britishpub]

For me a lot of people are trying to over complicate

That's the norm on this forum




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[Prem51]

@holdfast India was a number of different and separate kingdoms before British (and French, Portuguese and Dutch) rule. It included what is now Pakistan and Bangladesh. What remained after partition now has a centralised government, but also with State governments.
There are some, eg Sikh seperatists, who would still want independence from India.

The UK being in the EU is different, we do have a say unlike India under colonialism. And we can veto or opt out of EU policies we don't like.

 

[tim2000s]

India was a number of different and separate kingdoms before British (and French and Dutch) rule. It included what is now Pakistan and Bangladesh. What remained after partition now has a centralised government, but also with State governments.
There are some, eg Sikh seperatists, who would still want independence from India.

In many ways, India is very similar to the model of the US.

 

[holdfast]

@holdfast India was a number of different and separate kingdoms before British (and French, Portuguese and Dutch) rule. It included what is now Pakistan and Bangladesh. What remained after partition now has a centralised government, but also with State governments.
There are some, eg Sikh seperatists, who would still want independence from India.

The UK being in the EU is different, we do have a say unlike India under colonialism. And we can veto or opt out of EU policies we don't like.

I'm afraid you misunderstood the thrust of my post. I did not wish to imply that what my Indian friend said to me years ago was a reflection of circumstances in Europe today, but rather to illustrate how yearnings for self-determination are rationalised. Maybe my original post should just have consisted of the first and last sentences.

For me a lot of people are trying to over complicate the issue. I remember years ago talking to an Indian who had lived under the British Raj, seen the process of independence and seen the outcome. He said that whilst the administration of the Raj had generally been good, he would rather his country was run by Indians, albeit with some difficulties, than being subject to laws imposed by foreigners. In the end it was and is a question of sovereignty - regardless of the consequences.

Sent from my XT1032 using Diabetes.co.uk Forum mobile app

Sent from my XT1032 using Diabetes.co.uk Forum mobile app

 

[Catlady19]

That's true - I'm not disagreeing that. The point is that tariffs are encumbered on imports. So on a World Trade Organisation basis, 44% of our exports would be would be subject to tariffs on the EU side, whereas 16% of the EUs exports would have similar tariffs applied in the UK.

Likewise, Services, which are now the mainstay of our economy, and not goods, would see 38% of our exports being subjected to the tariff structure as opposed to 7.5% of the EUs.

Neither of these are currently taxed at source and thus would have an increased price within the EU.

It is this disparity that is the issue and drives a disproportionate effect, and not the absolute numbers relating to exports.

Yes I concur - you are over complicating the issue - as mentioned previously - my point was that the EU would still want to trade with the UK.

 

[Dark Horse]

... as seen on Social Media

 

[tim2000s]

Yes I concur - you are over complicating the issue - as mentioned previously - my point was that the EU would still want to trade with the UK.

I'd disagree - they'd want to trade with the UK. I think that's a reasonable statement. The question is how important is that trade with the UK in future negotiations?

The commonly rolled out statement "Don't overcomplicate the issue" is fundamentally the issue of the entire referendum. It's very complicated at multiple layers. There has been little reflection of the complexity in the populist arguments put forward by both sides, and as always with these things, the devil in the detail is what will cause the pain post any decision.

 

[holdfast]

I want to see Cameron stop trying to scare me with fabricated guesses at how much more a holiday will cost etc, and stand in front of a graphic as below, and explain where we will sit if we actually vote to "Leave".

Thanks for posting v helpful diagram.

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[Dillinger]

He said that whilst the administration of the Raj had generally been good, he would rather his country was run by Indians, albeit with some difficulties, than being subject to laws imposed by foreigners. In the end it was and is a question of sovereignty - regardless of the consequences.

But that is nothing like this situation; that is a foreign power (England) imposing their sovereignty by military force over a subordinate country (India).

The EU is not a foreign power (it is not a sovereign state or even a sovereign entity); we as part of the EU come up with the policies that apply to us.

The primacy of the UK parliament in domestic policies is not affected; only in areas where our parliament has agreed to grant powers to the EU does European law take precedence over domestic law.

 

[azure]

I guess it depends what you mean by sovereignty @holdfast

For me, the very fact we're having this Referendum shows we have sovereignty and self-determination. The majority of our laws are made here in the UK. I think I read a figure that said only 13% come from Brussels.

I've read information from both sides because it's an important decision and I want to be very sure about how I'm going to vote. But, in my opinion, the Leave information rings less true than the Remain information. Things like this don't help:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36573766

There's no certainty - none of us can see the future - but the arguments for Remain are more persuasive for me. I won't take the risk of voting Leave. It'd be little consolation to have 'more sovereignty' over our own country, if it's been plunged into a recession. The tortuous process of renegotiating deals with the other EU states would cause delays and uncertainty, never mind anything else.