May & Leadsom...Who Will Be Our Next PM?

I can only say that I am grateful beyond bounds to Michael Gove. Had he not done a magnificent "Brutus" on Boris Johnson then BJ would almost certainly have been PM. In that situation, Labour wouldn't have seen power for a generation.

As it is, the Labour Party appear to be doing a fantastic job of snatching defeat from the mass of victory anyway, but that's a separate issue.

There is now one danger as I see it for the new Conservative leader (whoever she may be) and that is that the membership expect a Margaret Thatcher mark ll. I was never a fan of MT, but you dismissed her at your peril. However good the two candidates may be, neither has the intelligence, drive, power or tenacity of Thatcher.

In those bleak days of the 80s politics had some real character, with Benn, Foot and Skinner on one side and Thatcher, Joseph, Lawson and Tebbit on the other. They were great days for politics - full of debate and passion. Now we have insipid, bland politicians in all parties. I hope the Conservatives choose wisely and give the country a PM that will rekindle that fire and debate.

We may be a divided country as a result of the referendum and many may fear deep political divisions, but I have implicit faith that the democratic process will ultimately bring about ultimate healing and stasis.

To all my conservative friends out there I ask only one thing. Vote wisely

I can't see how they can call an Election with the Fixed Term Parliament Act they put in place.

It would also create even more uncertainty and even greater economic upheaval. The emergency measures that the Bank have already put in place will have negative implications for the economy in the longer term.

All this and apart from the referendum result, and Cameron promising to resign at some point in the future, nothing has actually happened yet

Just watched the Leadsom interview on her gay marriage position.. she said she didn't like it because the church was being forced too do something... except it wasn't.. The C of E was explicitly excluded from the law anyway.. so she obviously didn't understand what the vote was about. Next PM I certainly hope not..

bulkbiker said:

Just watched the Leadsom interview on her gay marriage position.. she said she didn't like it because the church was being forced too do something... except it wasn't.. The C of E was explicitly excluded from the law anyway.. so she obviously didn't understand what the vote was about. Next PM I certainly hope not..

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If you look at rather a lot of Leadsom's statements on various things, they do seem to not grasp what has been presented. I rather liked the statement today that the drop in value in Sterling was nothing to do with the referendum out vote, and was "Partly to do with the markets being wrong on the results of the referendum and partly on the expectations of further interest rate easing."

Oh, so that it dropped from an average of 1.44 throughout May to 1.29 today had nothing to do with voting out, and the expectation of interest rate cuts by the BoE that they specified were a response to the effects of the referendum had nothing to do with the referendum?

One thing is for sure. Her grasp of Economics is somewhat loose, based on her assessment today. She'll need a damned impressive Chancellor if that's how she views what's been going on. Those statements alone would take her out of my reckoning if I was voting.

Just opened the latest edition of Private Eye. Now I admit that anything you read in there should be taken with a large pinch of salt, but they are less than complimentary about Leadsome. I won't copy out the entire article, but this gives a flavour:

"She was the worst Minister we've ever had" one Treasury Official told the FT, recalling her time as City Minister from 2014 to 2015. "She found it difficult to understand issues or take decisions. She was monomaniacal, seeing the EU as the source of every problem" recalled another.

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Doesn't sound like great Prime Ministerial material, to be honest.

Who are the bookies backing ? They usually get it right lol.

Welshman1952 said:

I can only say that I am grateful beyond bounds to Michael Gove. Had he not done a magnificent "Brutus" on Boris Johnson then BJ would almost certainly have been PM. In that situation, Labour wouldn't have seen power for a generation.

As it is, the Labour Party appear to be doing a fantastic job of snatching defeat from the mass of victory anyway, but that's a separate issue.

There is now one danger as I see it for the new Conservative leader (whoever she may be) and that is that the membership expect a Margaret Thatcher mark ll. I was never a fan of MT, but you dismissed her at your peril. However good the two candidates may be, neither has the intelligence, drive, power or tenacity of Thatcher.

In those bleak days of the 80s politics had some real character, with Benn, Foot and Skinner on one side and Thatcher, Joseph, Lawson and Tebbit on the other. They were great days for politics - full of debate and passion. Now we have insipid, bland politicians in all parties. I hope the Conservatives choose wisely and give the country a PM that will rekindle that fire and debate.

We may be a divided country as a result of the referendum and many may fear deep political divisions, but I have implicit faith that the democratic process will ultimately bring about ultimate healing and stasis.

To all my conservative friends out there I ask only one thing. Vote wisely

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Labour are finished here in Scotland. I also think the NW and NE of England is ripe for some other party to start in who represent the blue collar worker. In my opinion I would never vote Labour again in my life as it has been taken over by the far left fringe who don't represent ordinary people. Looks like the Conservatives again in 2020.

@Welshman1952 I think the arrival of all those SNP MPs have given the Commons a bit more passion and less plastic politicians.

Well I think May has a good record and would probably make a good job of being the leader of the Tory party and as PM. Being a real boost for the Tories. That's why I hope Leadsom wins as I don't believe she would be half as good as May.

May looks a bit like Thatcher, hope she's a better human being, or God help us all.

KevinPotts said:

An early GM is certainly a genuine prospect with Leadsom, not so with May, who has already said she will not call a GM within this parliament through to 2020.

May is defo for remaining in the SM, so that means the 4 free movements and fees from the UK at least equal to our current contributions,but with zero influence. I think with this scenario, which I favour (although I would rather we had remained), that we will have uproar on the streets and to the right of the Conservative party.


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I suspect a lot of new tory supporters will be signing up, and voting for Leadsom, with that as their aim.

KevinPotts said:

If what you are saying is born out by the evidence then I do worry, as we really do need a strong opposition to provide balance and stability within any democracy.


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My Constituency has always been Labour with hefty 10,000+ majorities every election. In 2015 Labour lost here and the SNP won with a swing of 34% and a majority of 10,000+. This pattern was repeated all throughout Scotland as people who usually voted Labour felt they didn't represent them anymore and were out of touch. I think this is contagious and will split the party.

KevinPotts said:

In this family we only ever refer to Thatcher as "That Great Lady"...

....although I would also refer to my Father's remarks about music hall stars.. "She's a good turn lad, but she's on too long"


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You can't mention her name here Kevin she was so despised by those who lost their jobs.

tim2000s said:

I rather liked the statement today that the drop in value in Sterling was nothing to do with the referendum out vote, and was "Partly to do with the markets being wrong on the results of the referendum and partly on the expectations of further interest rate easing."

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It's rather worrying that her main claim to credibility is that she worked in "Investment Banking" yet she clearly has no idea how the markets work.

It is easy media nonsense to think that the value of a currency has anything whatsoever to do with the base rate in any particular country.

The market does not work that way, the investors who trade in currency to not do so based on what interest rate they can get at their local Building Society.

If the Interest Rate in a particular country is set at a level that is inconsisitent with that countries economy, the cuurency will come under pressure and will likely fall in relative value. (FX rates are relative value not absolute value).

If the BOE cut interest rates, and the market believes that the general state of the economy does not warrant lower rates, the currency will fall. If however the market believes that lower rates will benefit the economy the currency will rise.

The events of 1992 should show how this works.

The BOE were forced to raise rates in response to Germany raising rates due to the huge costs of German reunification. At the time our economy was quite fragile, and the UK (along with most of the rest of Europe) were on the brink of recession. The market spotted this anomoly (George Soros in particular) and began to sell GBP (as well as the ITL and FFR and other currencies in the ERM) and the end result was the crisis in September 1992 (Black Wednesday) when despite the BOE raising rates repeatedly, GBP kept falling and we were forced to leave the ERM and float GBP which fell a long way.

Higher rates do not automatically mean a strnger currency, as lower rates do not automatically mean a weaker currency.

Investment Banking 101.

P.S. I was a FX trader for 16 years in the City, working for a a couple of large US Banks, and was working on 16th September 1992.

Aaah, so now we know ... it was all @britishpub 's fault ... only kidding

May (old mother Hubbard) or Leadsom (Lizzie Borden)