Are we reurning to 'normal' too quickly.

lucylocket61 said:

The r rate has been the same for weeks. I can only conclude that decisions being made by the government now are based on the economy, not health.

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The R rate has been varying and fluctuating in different parts of the country for the last few weeks.
The overall number is an average.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

Limitations of growth rates
The growth rate is an average value that can vary. When case numbers are low, uncertainty increases. This could happen when only a very small proportion of people are infected, or the geographical area considered has a very small population. A smaller number of cases means that variability in the underlying data makes it difficult to estimate the growth rate; there will be a wider range given for growth rate and frequent changes in the estimates. This will happen for both R and the growth rate; however, the growth rate requires fewer assumptions about the disease when it is calculated than R.

Even when the overall UK growth rate estimate is negative (below 0), some regions may have growth rate estimates that include ranges that are positive (above 0), for example from -4% to +1%; this does not necessarily mean the epidemic is increasing in that region, just that the uncertainty means it cannot be ruled out. It is also possible that an outbreak in one specific place could result in a positive (above 0) growth rate for the whole region.

Mr_Pot said:

If R is less than 1 the virus will eventually go away, R doesn't have to keep decreasing, although if it does the virus will go away more quickly. Even if you are braking very gently, as long as you are not accelerating your car will eventually stop. Also the R number becomes pretty meaningless when there are only a few cases.

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Ummm no the R number may still apply even with just a few cases.....

Ive watched the Victorian outbreak in australia happen so far.... Complacence issnt an option. Im watching it from rural Victoria Australia.

Hi,
Does anyone find it bizarre how we can all go out and have a drinking session in a pub on one hand, yet the health service cannot operate normally and looks like it wont until there is a vaccine?
I have long put off, but very necessary consultations with an endo and dermatologist and these cannot go ahead in the foreseeable future.

GP surgeries still only want to do emergencies or routine phone consultations, routine but necessary blood tests are not going ahead in our area.

Basically we cannot risk the health service due the virus. Re: Carlisle cardiac unit is closed for two weeks at the moment due covid 19 but all Carlisle pubs are open today.
However, for business we can risk the lives of the population.

It just feels to me we are making a bad mistake playing fast and loose with this virus.
D.

I looked at the articles about the U.K. as compared with others, and about the low incidence of the virus in Japan, and another, on the now well known subject of situations and conditions that cause spreading.
The U.K.’s approach didn’t emerge well.
Comparing us with Japan, which has had a very many fewer infections and deaths than us, there were two striking differences: an immune response to the virus in Japan which suggests the population has already been exposed to a similar virus, and the prevalence of mask wearing and compliance in Japan.
Here in the U.K. not many people wear masks, and amongst some groups there’s pride in noncompliance.
Opening up pubs on a Saturday night sounds, to me, like an invitation to cull a few more of us.

Out of interest, and I certainly don't know the answer, when is the right time to return to normal or to start opening things up? We surely can't wait until there is a vaccine.. It would be ideal but could be years away??

Jamie H said:

Out of interest, and I certainly don't know the answer, when is the right time to return to normal or to start opening things up? We surely can't wait until there is a vaccine.. It would be ideal but could be years away??

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I suspect it partly depends on the vulnerabilities of individuals.
A vaccine, and advances in ways to treat COVID, are being worked on, but like you I suspect that it’ll be some time before we see them, even without the Big Trump buying it all up.
Maybe we’ll have to adapt to different ways to assess where and how people work, the measures to keep industry (what’s left of it, and what survives COVID + Brexit) going infection-free. I think the process of adapting behaviours in this new situation will take some time.
I feel the loss of ‘normal’ life deeply, and would give anything to return to the better parts of it.

It's a really tough one and as I said I don't know the answer. Even for the most vulnerable and I include my elderly parents (albeit pretty healthy luckily) they realise they can't shy away forever.. That being said they are still petrified of contracting the virus.. Its such a tough question and I hope and pray that we are wrong and we get a vaccine in the near future. Hope you can get to some form of normal soon as it is taking a toll mentally on so many at the minute

Cobia said:

Ummm no the R number may still apply even with just a few cases.....

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To take this to the extreme consider the case where there is only one man in the UK with the virus. If he infects his wife the R number for the UK is 1, if he infects his wife and 4 children the R number for the UK is 5.

Jamie H said:

Out of interest, and I certainly don't know the answer, when is the right time to return to normal or to start opening things up? We surely can't wait until there is a vaccine.. It would be ideal but could be years away??

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Never. Trying to get rid of this virus now would be like trying to get rid of the common cold. And a vaccine may never be available, so really we just have to get on with life and let the chips fall where they may. Going to war on a coronavirus is pure folly. We have already lost.

In my opinion. No citation necessary.

Jim Lahey said:

Never. Trying to get rid of this virus now would be like trying to get rid of the common cold. And a vaccine may never be available, so really we just have to get on with life and let the chips fall where they may. Going to war on a coronavirus is pure folly. We have already lost.

In my opinion. No citation necessary.

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Maybe if you had ageing parents or a wife recovering from cancer treatment you might not feel so comfortable about sacrificing them so that others can enjoy themselves.

Mr_Pot said:

Maybe if you had ageing parents or a wife recovering from cancer treatment you might not feel so comfortable about sacrificing them so that others can enjoy themselves.

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Interesting. I do have ageing parents but I'm not prepared to keep them and everyone else on Earth locked up until the end of time in order to protect them. And what if you had a wife who was waiting for cancer treatment but didn't ever get it because the hospital was in lockdown...

Anyway, like I said, it's just my opinion.

My latest concern is the school proposals. If the rest of society is required to distance in some way how can they consider packing the kids in like sardines in the usual manner?

For secondary schools a year group bubble can be 300 or more pupils. So 300 teens, with often an invincible attitude to life, mix at close quarters for 7 hours a day and then go home. To vulnerable parents and grandparents. What are those family members then? Collateral damage? And it will be a criminal offence to not send the teens to school. With exams imminent it’s incredibly difficult to home educate the higher year groups.

If the adult population cannot mix unchecked in groups of 300 in order to prevent the spread then how can teens be allowed to? Will they need to isolate from family for the school year? How damaging would that be for them? Do vulnerable family members need to isolate from the more robust ones? Again how much damage will that cause?

I am not against schools reopening, they need socialisation and education, just the reckless manner in which it is being proposed with effectively no mitigation/barriers/distancing whatsoever. Week on week off half sized classes to allow distancing? Desk barriers? Masks? Something? Anything?

Primary schools with bubbles of 30 are more manageable but still not ideal.

Jim Lahey said:

Interesting. I do have ageing parents but I'm not prepared to keep them and everyone else on Earth locked up until the end of time in order to protect them. And what if you had a wife who was waiting for cancer treatment but didn't ever get it because the hospital was in lockdown...

Anyway, like I said, it's just my opinion.

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I think your aged parents should be allowed to make their own decisions, as long as what they decide to do doesn’t harm others. It’s an ethical problem.
In the meantime, there are issues to address such as the ways people put food on the table and a roof over their heads. The revelations about work and poverty that are emerging from investigations into the outbreak in Leicester reveal, I think, that societal changes are necessary if lockdown is to be eased without more spikes.

I see that parts of Catalonia have gone back into lockdown, and they’d all returned to ‘normal’.
Maybe we now have a new normal?

Chart from Texas Medical Association. Note the highest risk is thought to be going to a bar.

I for one find myself worn down with interpreting advice and reports etc. I was lucky enough to be able to self isolate since mid March as I have savings,a small amount but enough to last nearly a year if careful.
I'm 58 . I work in a care home as a support worker. I'm a qualified teacher but after years of a responsible job and then two years caring for my father I decided to go for a job where I could just work with people and earn enough to pay bills. I do mainly 1:1 work and on whole was enjoying it. I watched the current situation from mid February with growing concern. In my last working week my employers lied about there being a case of Covid in the building. Fortunately I was extremely cautious on my last shift as later found out the case was on the floor I work on. Since then a third of the residents have died of Covid including nearly half the floor I worked on. My employers have been at best incompetent at worst malicious. I have received no pay since March, they refused to furlough me unless shielded and say I'm not entitled to SSP. They have not told me about deaths, I learned from a colleague. I was told to return to work when I felt it was safe to do so. Frequent requests for individual risk assessments have been ignored as have requests to work from home which would be possible due to past experience have been denied. To further complicate issue I dont drive so have to take two buses to and from work.
So is everything opening to quickly. Yes,I think it is. At the moment the majority of people are not badly affected by this virus. The economy needs to get working. I even agree that the majority shouldnt suffer on account of a minority who are shielded/high risk.
Where I despair is the plight of a lot of this minority. From August in England a lot of support will be withdrawn. Those already in receipt of benefits/pensions will have a hard time but at least an income. Those who are employed are totally reliant on their employers to provide a covid safe environment and the general public following measures. Hmm. Unfortunately the only way I could possibly prove my work environment is non compliant is to be in it. The majority of carers where I work are in the lowest risk group. They are poorly paid with no sick pay if ill.
Diabetes UK campaigned for more considered treatment of diabetics. I received my reply from my MP today. Of course they are concerned about diabetics but then what followed was a copy of the guidelines. Ok so I stay at home as much as possible, socially distance,minimize contact with those outside my household and only return to work if Covid Safe. In reality I have to negotiate public transport and spend 12 hours in a poorly ventilated very high risk building with PPE that is not guaranteed. They can open up lockdown all they want. Worse case scenario is that high risk workers are potentially paying the price.

Early in the Lockdown I had concerns that my elderly relatives would be left, trapped in isolation while the rest of society went about its normal business and forgot they existed. I now think that is less likely to happen than I thought. Which is a huge relief.

My new concern is that everyone has got so bored of Lockdown that they are totally ignoring any semblance of social distancing. As an example, my neighbours on both sides have been ignoring social distancing, having sleepovers, family parties, barbecues and tea parties since before the Lockdown step downs were announced. Several serious comorbidities and suppressed immune systems, mixing, cuddling and hugging with all ages, kids attending school, a taxi driver...

Fortunately, my relatives have enough common sense to not take unnecessary risks for the sake of a burnt BBQ sausage and a hug.

It all comes down to personal risk assessments.

JRT said:

Those who are employed are totally reliant on their employers to provide a covid safe environment and the general public following measures. Hmm. Unfortunately the only way I could possibly prove my work environment is non compliant is to be in it. The majority of carers where I work are in the lowest risk group. They are poorly paid with no sick pay if ill.... Ok so I stay at home as much as possible, socially distance, minimize contact with those outside my household and only return to work if Covid Safe. In reality I have to negotiate public transport and spend 12 hours in a poorly ventilated very high risk building with PPE that is not guaranteed. They can open up lockdown all they want. Worse case scenario is that high risk workers are potentially paying the price.

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absolutely!
I read an article recently by Zoe Harcombe arguing against the 2m social distancing rule, claiming it was unnecessary, and Lockdown should be halted immediately.

Now I have a great deal of time and respect for Zoe Harcombe, but the whole time I was reading her article all I could think of was that she was probably writing it comfortably ensconced in her home office, with a nice view out of her open window.

I simply cannot believe that she has a 2 hr bus and train commute, jammed like a sardine in the rush hour, breathing hot underground air pre-cycled through 8 other commuters. Nor can I believe she works 10 hour shifts on a factory production line, or 12 hour shifts handling dirty crockery and saliva covered cutlery, or 9 hours a day in an open plan office, with windows that don’t open and 40 co-workers all sharing every breath.

edit: thinking about this, and the commuting and work environments I have just described, I am certain that I would be saying the same if we were discussing flu, norovirus or a flea pandemic.

Brunneria said:

I am certain that I would be saying the same if we were discussing flu, norovirus or a flea pandemic.

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But for none of these have we ever quarantined the healthy.

At least not in the last 100 years have we?... yet as a species we are still here.