Anybody seen this report in the FT? Not specifically about Italy but it offers a very different view of the situation.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b
If you click on the link it may appear to be behind a paywall but it is syndicated news that can be accessed via Google.
Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study
New epidemiological model shows vast majority of people suffer little or no illness
If the results of the study are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment © Tolga Akmen/AFP
March 24, 2020 4:19 pm by Clive Cookson , Science Editor
The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.
If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.
“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.
The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.
The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.
I’ve been looking into the surescreen ones mentioned on here and in the papers. Apparently the antibodies can only be reliably detected for 33 days from symptoms. So maybe of us will test negative but actually could have had it if tested a few months afterwards.i have actually been wondering about this.
All the asymptomatic school children busily swapping it and spreading it to parents and friends. Spreading and spreading.
So many people here on the forum have been mentioning virus symptoms that hit one or two of the list of C-19 symptoms, then say ‘but of course it isn’t that. I don’t have the fever!’
I myself had a One Day Wonder mini virus last Saturday, insignificant. Of course it wasn’t C-19.
but what if it was? Maybe I was one of the lucky ones? I would have picked it up in the vets waiting room 4 days before, and maybe given it to my hairdresser 2 days later... before any symptoms emerged.
Only way to tell is a test for antibodies.
As soon as the tests come out on private sale, I will get a test done.
There are quite a lot of people reporting something very similar to COVID-19 that was around at the tail end of last year..maybe a huge chunk of the population has had it already..i have actually been wondering about this.
All the asymptomatic school children busily swapping it and spreading it to parents and friends. Spreading and spreading.
So many people here on the forum have been mentioning virus symptoms that hit one or two of the list of C-19 symptoms, then say ‘but of course it isn’t that. I don’t have the fever!’
I myself had a One Day Wonder mini virus last Saturday, insignificant. Of course it wasn’t C-19.
but what if it was? Maybe I was one of the lucky ones? I would have picked it up in the vets waiting room 4 days before, and maybe given it to my hairdresser 2 days later... before any symptoms emerged.
Only way to tell is a test for antibodies.
As soon as the tests come out on private sale, I will get a test done.
There’s a possibility being mooted that there are now two strains of Covid19, and we’re still unsure about immunity. Whatever, I think it’s already had an effect on the ways economies operate and is making us think about social structures, ethics and mores.
There’s a possibility being mooted that there are now two strains of Covid19, and we’re still unsure about immunity. Whatever, I think it’s already had an effect on the ways economies operate and is making us think about social structures, ethics and mores.
i have actually been wondering about this.
All the asymptomatic school children busily swapping it and spreading it to parents and friends. Spreading and spreading.
So many people here on the forum have been mentioning virus symptoms that hit one or two of the list of C-19 symptoms, then say ‘but of course it isn’t that. I don’t have the fever!’
I myself had a One Day Wonder mini virus last Saturday, insignificant. Of course it wasn’t C-19.
but what if it was? Maybe I was one of the lucky ones? I would have picked it up in the vets waiting room 4 days before, and maybe given it to my hairdresser 2 days later... before any symptoms emerged.
Only way to tell is a test for antibodies.
As soon as the tests come out on private sale, I will get a test done.
Or more likely they had one of the other corona type viruses i.e. an old boring seasonal one.There are quite a lot of people reporting something very similar to COVID-19 that was around at the tail end of last year..maybe a huge chunk of the population has had it already..
Just got around to watching it. It is interesting isn't it.Definitely worthwhile watching - Dr John Murray's analysis of UK ICU stats etc:
Professor Chris Whitty the CMO is an epidemiologist and was previously professor of public and international health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. He was previously chief scientific adviser at the Department for International Development. During this time, he played a leading role, with the then CMO Professor Sally Davies, in advising on the UK response to the Western African Ebola virus epidemic. I can't find a reference but I am sure I remember that teams from 11 universities are advising him. So not just a few mathematicians from Imperial.Who are the people at Imperial College - are they mathematicians ? Sounds like they may not be epidemiologists so why has this branch of science been ignored? Have we done something akin to asking the plumber to fix the oven?
Interesting response to this article here:I thought this article was interesting...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654
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