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Breakdown of Italy’s figures (edited title)

What a relief it would be if that turns out to be true, @urbanracer.

The sooner they roll out antibody testing, the better. Let's hope governments are smart enough to adopt the measures recommended.
 
urbanracer said:
Anybody seen this report in the FT? Not specifically about Italy but it offers a very different view of the situation.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

If you click on the link it may appear to be behind a paywall but it is syndicated news that can be accessed via Google.

Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study
New epidemiological model shows vast majority of people suffer little or no illness
http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-us.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fd823f77c-6de0-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

If the results of the study are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment © Tolga Akmen/AFP

March 24, 2020 4:19 pm by Clive Cookson , Science Editor


The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.

The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.

The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.
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i have actually been wondering about this.
All the asymptomatic school children busily swapping it and spreading it to parents and friends. Spreading and spreading.

So many people here on the forum have been mentioning virus symptoms that hit one or two of the list of C-19 symptoms, then say ‘but of course it isn’t that. I don’t have the fever!’

I myself had a One Day Wonder mini virus last Saturday, insignificant. Of course it wasn’t C-19.

but what if it was? Maybe I was one of the lucky ones? I would have picked it up in the vets waiting room 4 days before, and maybe given it to my hairdresser 2 days later... before any symptoms emerged.
Only way to tell is a test for antibodies.

As soon as the tests come out on private sale, I will get a test done.
 
Brunneria said:
i have actually been wondering about this.
All the asymptomatic school children busily swapping it and spreading it to parents and friends. Spreading and spreading.

So many people here on the forum have been mentioning virus symptoms that hit one or two of the list of C-19 symptoms, then say ‘but of course it isn’t that. I don’t have the fever!’

I myself had a One Day Wonder mini virus last Saturday, insignificant. Of course it wasn’t C-19.

but what if it was? Maybe I was one of the lucky ones? I would have picked it up in the vets waiting room 4 days before, and maybe given it to my hairdresser 2 days later... before any symptoms emerged.
Only way to tell is a test for antibodies.

As soon as the tests come out on private sale, I will get a test done.
Click to expand...
I’ve been looking into the surescreen ones mentioned on here and in the papers. Apparently the antibodies can only be reliably detected for 33 days from symptoms. So maybe of us will test negative but actually could have had it if tested a few months afterwards.
 
Brunneria said:
i have actually been wondering about this.
All the asymptomatic school children busily swapping it and spreading it to parents and friends. Spreading and spreading.

So many people here on the forum have been mentioning virus symptoms that hit one or two of the list of C-19 symptoms, then say ‘but of course it isn’t that. I don’t have the fever!’

I myself had a One Day Wonder mini virus last Saturday, insignificant. Of course it wasn’t C-19.

but what if it was? Maybe I was one of the lucky ones? I would have picked it up in the vets waiting room 4 days before, and maybe given it to my hairdresser 2 days later... before any symptoms emerged.
Only way to tell is a test for antibodies.

As soon as the tests come out on private sale, I will get a test done.
Click to expand...
There are quite a lot of people reporting something very similar to COVID-19 that was around at the tail end of last year..maybe a huge chunk of the population has had it already..
 
When we get an antibody test it will shine a light on what is happening in the real world, not only in terms of numbers exposed but how long any immunity lasts.
The worry however is how we can protect those at most risk including health care staff and to safely look after those in critical condition.
Meanwhile in Italy slight up turn in new cases but this I suspect may be a blip and I could find no stats on tests carried out each day.
Continued rise in deaths in Italy whict at this stage is unsurprising not only because deaths will always lag behind diagnosis and also medical resources are stretched beyond breaking point.
 
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There’s a possibility being mooted that there are now two strains of Covid19, and we’re still unsure about immunity. Whatever, I think it’s already had an effect on the ways economies operate and is making us think about social structures, ethics and mores.
 
Fairygodmother said:
There’s a possibility being mooted that there are now two strains of Covid19, and we’re still unsure about immunity. Whatever, I think it’s already had an effect on the ways economies operate and is making us think about social structures, ethics and mores.
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If that is the case (fingers crossed!) then let us all hope that the mild version is still close enough to the severe version that we get immunity from one after having had the other.
 
Fairygodmother said:
There’s a possibility being mooted that there are now two strains of Covid19, and we’re still unsure about immunity. Whatever, I think it’s already had an effect on the ways economies operate and is making us think about social structures, ethics and mores.
Click to expand...

Speaking of ethics and mores I have just been watching Trump on CNN ------ OMG
 
Brunneria said:
i have actually been wondering about this.
All the asymptomatic school children busily swapping it and spreading it to parents and friends. Spreading and spreading.

So many people here on the forum have been mentioning virus symptoms that hit one or two of the list of C-19 symptoms, then say ‘but of course it isn’t that. I don’t have the fever!’

I myself had a One Day Wonder mini virus last Saturday, insignificant. Of course it wasn’t C-19.

but what if it was? Maybe I was one of the lucky ones? I would have picked it up in the vets waiting room 4 days before, and maybe given it to my hairdresser 2 days later... before any symptoms emerged.
Only way to tell is a test for antibodies.

As soon as the tests come out on private sale, I will get a test done.
Click to expand...

For myself the main take-away is the phrase 'unqualified Imperial model' - it's all very well asking experts but one has to ask the right experts. Who are the people at Imperial College - are they mathematicians ? Sounds like they may not be epidemiologists so why has this branch of science been ignored? Have we done something akin to asking the plumber to fix the oven?

I had something strange last weekend as well - coughing (more than usual) and my head was hot but not my body so not really a fever as I understand the term. Only lasted 24hrs and it was gone, like you say, couldn't have been Covid or could it?

Bearing in mind that down on the south coast we had the 'super-spreader' Steve Walsh wandering around in the Brighton community until he came down with it himself in early February, I am surprised that there isn't a greater reported incidence locally here. But maybe it could be explained away by the above.
 
It certainly is an interesting thought. Couple of weeks ago I had terrible restless legs. ****** nightmare they were aching and I couldn't sleep for the discomfort In hindsight my whole body didn't feel right. Had no appetite for a few days either and felt a bit nauseous. Thought it was the anti depressants I was on so came off them and a few hours later felt a bit better and no restless legs. Was it the anti depressants or maybe a bug?!
 
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bulkbiker said:
There are quite a lot of people reporting something very similar to COVID-19 that was around at the tail end of last year..maybe a huge chunk of the population has had it already..
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Or more likely they had one of the other corona type viruses i.e. an old boring seasonal one.

But in a pandemic it is criminal to wait for certainty before taking action - unlike in most of science and engineering. Knowing now what should have been done 3 weeks ago doesn't change anything. Better to have taken action then.

Remember even at the current modest rate of infection, one person getting infected and taking no precaution from spreading it and each of those infected by them doing the same etc. could cause 60,000 in 10 cycles. Currently 1 cycle = 3 to 4 days!
 
urbanracer said:
Who are the people at Imperial College - are they mathematicians ? Sounds like they may not be epidemiologists so why has this branch of science been ignored? Have we done something akin to asking the plumber to fix the oven?
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Professor Chris Whitty the CMO is an epidemiologist and was previously professor of public and international health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. He was previously chief scientific adviser at the Department for International Development. During this time, he played a leading role, with the then CMO Professor Sally Davies, in advising on the UK response to the Western African Ebola virus epidemic. I can't find a reference but I am sure I remember that teams from 11 universities are advising him. So not just a few mathematicians from Imperial.
 
Italy is definitely showing signs of having past a peak one can only hope it now follows the path of the Chinese outbreak London is worrying me as is most of the USA especially after watching Trump on CNN this morning.

We are really only get an estimate of what percentage of the population were exposed to the virus once we have an antibody test so there is little point in speculating.
Our thoughts are with those who are suffering and those maning the trenches together every family member touched by this disaster.
 
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