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Covid/Coronavirus and diabetes - the numbers

Discussion in 'Diabetes Discussions' started by Lupf, May 15, 2020.

  1. HSSS

    HSSS Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    Something fundamentally flawed in the U.K. by this measure, as well as most of the others.

    Age or general state of health of the population is one possibility, medical approach to covid (Though I can’t see the drs reaction was any different here to elsewhere so unlikely), political management of the situation, some unknown factor? My money is on generally poor metabolic health as a nation and pandemic management.
     
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  2. Jim Lahey

    Jim Lahey I reversed my Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    Ancel Keys was frequently seen eating bacon & eggs.
     
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  3. bulkbiker

    bulkbiker Type 2 · Oracle

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    I'd reckon sending old people back to care homes from hospital at the start to "clear beds" for an non existent wave of infections might have something to do with Italy and the UK having worse numbers than France.. that and the increase in DNR's in care homes.
     
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  4. HSSS

    HSSS Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    I think nhs drs and nurses might argue about a “non existent” wave. Perhaps less than anticipated but hardly non existent. But yes I’m sure both of your points added to the figures.
     
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  5. Harys1990

    Harys1990 · Member

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    Yes It is fact that Corona Virus is targeting who have suffered any critical disease. It is need special care this type of patient and make good plan to cure from this virus
     
  6. Jamie H

    Jamie H · Well-Known Member

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    I know I've banged the drum repeatedly about not using other countries stats. However I felt compelled to post this as its been asked many times on the forum about admissions and severity of contracting covid when having diabetes, rather than just mortality.

    Also please note this is a study into type 1 diabetes only.

    Health warning (pardon the pun) - very preliminary stats with a very small study population. Not further extrapolated into relationship of severity with age, existence of other comorbidities, weight (just says what 39.7% were obese) or mangement (just avg hba1c was 8.5% and that the lower the better!)

    Encouraging that +50% managed at home. Less encouraging ICU admissions but you'd imagine some correlation with age, control, weight (nearly 40% of those studied were clinically obese) etc.

    Takeaways are that it's not a death sentence by a long stretch. Weight and control are key!!

    Aplogies for my apparent contradiction in posting US stats. Open to criticism

    https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/932175
     
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  7. Mrs T 123

    Mrs T 123 Type 2 (in remission!) · Well-Known Member

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    Very encouraging +50% managed at home - I have wondered about this, as all we seem to hear is the doom and gloom stories about diabetes in the press and on the news. Welcome change to hear something positive. Yhanks for that.
     
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  8. Mrs T 123

    Mrs T 123 Type 2 (in remission!) · Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for that even.
     
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  9. copilost

    copilost Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    I have this (ridiculous) hope that covid-19 might lead to a better understanding of (interest in) metabolic syndrome and insulin resistance. I'm too old for this sort of optimism but I just can't help myself. Laugh, you know you want to :)
     
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  10. bulkbiker

    bulkbiker Type 2 · Oracle

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    Well there's quite a push on twitter for better metabolic health with just as much push back from the "just take a pill" crowd..
    So it is out there.
     
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  11. Jim Lahey

    Jim Lahey I reversed my Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    Indeed. None of this stuff is really a secret anymore. It’s just being kept secret from the masses by vested interests.
     
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  12. Lupf

    Lupf Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    This is a good illustration by the BBC, but as you say it is very simplified.

    For example, it ignores all deaths in May and does not even comment on
    the fact that by 29 May the total number increased to 64000 deaths see my entry just above, https://www.diabetes.co.uk/forum/th...betes-the-numbers.174274/page-14#post-2275233.
    And it compares only the three worst countries in Europe.
     
  13. Lupf

    Lupf Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    Unfortunately, it is much simpler. two weeks in March, On 12 March, Italy reached 1000 deaths other countries locked down, and our government (literally) asked us to take it on our chins. This dramatically increased infection rates and resulted in likely at least three times as many deaths - estimate by former scientific advisor to the government, Sir David King.
     
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  14. JohnEGreen

    JohnEGreen Other · Master

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    South Korea confirm start of second wave it seems maybe there are going to be a few more numbers to add and analyse in the not too far distant future.
     
  15. Mr_Pot

    Mr_Pot Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    When was that? If you are referring to "herd immunity" I think that was a solution that the media invented.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/14/must-do-everything-power-protect-lives/
    The problem all along has been delay, indecisiveness, and general incompetence by the government. I suspect the fact that SARS, MERS and Bird Flu didn't have any impact in the UK gave them a false sense of security resulting in lack of planning, the PPE debacle etc.etc.
     
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  16. Brunneria

    Brunneria Other · Moderator
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    Yes,

    And Vitamin D deficiency - we are further north than Italy and Spain and France, aren't we?
    Metabolic health is a big one, with the UK having higher rates of obesity than the rest of Europe.
    And as for the average British way of eating... that hardly sets us up for good health, does it? The modern French, German, Spanish and Italian way of eating may not be classic 'Mediterranean Diet' but they are closer to it than the good ol' hobnob and chips and a takeaway, seen so often in the UK.
    - none of which ever seems to factor in to the mainstream number crunching.

    Honestly, I sometimes despair as I look at the Worldometers site.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
    We are up to 9 million confirmed cases, nearly half a million deaths, and some countries are just getting started.
    A couple of days ago, the rise was in excess of 180,000 confirmed cases in just one day.

    So many ways that countries SHOULD NOT be comparing themselves.
    It isn't about numbers of cases, it is about the R number and the rate of growth, yet that becomes less relevant as the cases reduce in number in a country, and then it becomes about small hotspots such as are happening in China, and refrigerated food facilities in Germany, Wales, UK... and office environments such as S Korea.
    Age of population is a significant factor.
    Health of aged population is a huge factor.
    It isn't about case numbers or deaths or tests, because they all vary hugely from country to country. (Anyone seen the latest news from America where a 'joke' suggestion stated that reducing the number of tests would improve the stats, cos if you don't test, you don't find...)
    The more testing, the lower the % recorded killed by the virus.
    The less testing, the more the Excess Death toll tells a better story.
    Even the Excess Death figs are highly suspect in some countries, and in others (e.g. India) no one is accurately tracking the deaths at all, let alone having accurate records going back 5 years for comparison.

    Fascinating to watch the different policies of different countries; China, North and South Korea, Brazil, America, France, Sweden, Russia... but the tragedy is that there don't actually seem to be any winners. China looks like it has a miniscule death toll per million yet faces an indefinite future of Lockdowns and closed borders. Russia's stats are highly suspect, and the Excess Deaths for Moscow suggest that the all causes death toll is around 60% up from prev years (compared with the UK's 57%). France had a brutal Lockdown and only a 27% increase in Excess Deaths, but now they are opening up again, with the start of the festival season... Sweden has a rolling problem and no sign of a tail off in cases (in fact Swedish weekly cases have nearly doubled the last two weeks), and India, Brazil and America are just increasing and increasing with no lid on them, and no central control.

    Anyone wanting references for these figs is welcome to ask, but really, they are simply gleaned from the news, and a bit of googling. For instance, if you google 'Covid excess deaths Moscow' you will get some fascinating articles cropping up, including anonymous articles by coroners and records clerks who know what is really going on, but cannot sign their names for fear of official consequences.
     
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    #296 Brunneria, Jun 22, 2020 at 4:20 PM
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2020
  17. Jamie H

    Jamie H · Well-Known Member

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    Wouldn't trust china stats either. R rate looks worse when there are localised bursts and low infection rates. Not sure if we will get a second wave.. No one does and that's what is making it harder to predict.

    Wouldn't describe south Koreas few cases as a second wave or spike.. As you said localised outbreaks.. This is the template for a while.. Get rates down low and deal with localised outbreaks... Requires a good track and trace set up... Back over to the UK government.. Not too optimistic..
     
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  18. JohnEGreen

    JohnEGreen Other · Master

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    That's not what Jung Eun-kyeong, says,
     
  19. clivewilliamson

    clivewilliamson Type 2 · Newbie

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    I thought that I'd read recently that as a percentage of deaths, those in care homes in the UK were less than that of France and Belgium. Or is that wrong? So much incorrect information it's hard to tell what are the facts.
     
  20. bulkbiker

    bulkbiker Type 2 · Oracle

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    I think at the moment (and probably in the future too) it will be very unclear who died of what and when..
    There appear to have been fewer autopsies than usual and doctors have been encouraged to be "vague" in attributing cause of death.
    But there was a relatively recent article that had 16,000 deaths in care homes in the UK and the ONS data has England and Wales at 14.364 covid deaths in care homes out of a total of 83,114 deaths for 2020 as a whole (again in care homes England and Wales)
     
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