Covid/Coronavirus and diabetes - the numbers

[bulkbiker]

Is it really surprising ? If one were to make the argument that some of those who died recently would have died later this year, then you might expect the weekly average to dip at some point now that there is at least some degree of control over the transmission.

I'm not surprised in the slightest but think that some of our more "concerned" members might be.

 

[Brunneria]

If the pandemic is as deadly as oft reported though then there surely should be more deaths than average every single week?

That seeing a lower than average week is moderately surprising was the point I and the article were trying to make.

In a thread about COVID the numbers I thought this was relevant.

Please delete if I was wrong to think that.

Lots of factors in play.
Fewer people travelling => fewer accidents and deaths
More people taking coughs and colds and flus seriously, in case it is COVID.
There has been a shift in who is dying, including people not seeking medical advice, or not receiving cancer treatment, etc. etc.
Every one a tragedy.
As Urb’ says, some people have been cut down before their time.
The fact that Lockdown has reduced the number of cases and therefore the number of deaths can be interpreted as a testament to its effectiveness (even though less effective than countries with stricter lockdowns).

We also had lower than average deaths through the winter, MUCH higher through COVID and now numbers have dropped again. That can be interpreted as the increase being even bigger, and the recent ‘below average’ as being nothing important.

All of that is interpretation of limited info.
But claiming that COVID isn’t ‘deadly’ is simply not true.
It is deadly to the people it kills, and there are more of them than any humane culture wants.

 

[HSSS]

Without doubt some survived last winter due to its mildness that covid then took. Others may not have had many more months anyway in a covidless 2020 perhaps due to age or other conditions. So in a relatively short period those deaths would have occurred anyway.

But it is undeniable that many have been lost that would have had years, sometime many years, more if they had not caught covid or had received medical care they this year didn’t get.

It’s also unsurprising that Lockdown has saved lives by means of accidents etc not occurring or other illnesses not being spread that would otherwise have done.

Perhaps a yearly excess deaths will balance these out numerically better than a weekly or monthly figure will. But these will be statistics and quite up meaningful to people’s personal lives.

For the individuals lost specifically and solely because of covid that otherwise would have lived significantly longer it is very real and deadly. For those who survived because of the safety of lockdown they’ll probably never know even if the stats say it’s true. Eg a middle aged man dies directly from covid and everyone knows he’s gone And would in all likelihood he would have had another 20yrs otherwise. A person who lives because they didn’t become a road traffic accident statistic never knows about it.

 

[bulkbiker]

That'll teach me to try and post something positive about COVID.

 

[HSSS]

That'll teach me to try and post something positive about COVID.

Lol. But it also keeps some of us more “concerned” from going of the deep end by forcing us to consider “the other side” in a rational way. Balance is a good thing.

 

[JohnEGreen]

That'll teach me to try and post something positive about COVID.

Don't worry there's allways the next pandemic and then we will be much more experienced in how to deal with it I believe the Chinese have already got their eyes on a new strain of flu virus G4 EA H1N1 which is worrying them a little.

 

[Max68]

Don't worry there's allways the next pandemic and then we will be much more experienced in how to deal with it I believe the Chinese have already got their eyes on a new strain of flu virus G4 EA H1N1 which is worrying them a little.

I read about that John. It seems to me nature has had enough and decided to give man kind a real kicking! Will we learn?1 Sadly I doubt it!

 

[Jamie H]

That'll teach me to try and post something positive about COVID.

I had a discussion with a doctor recently who is by no means covid denier but predicted that this would happen. Even the cautious BBC have stated that risk of dying from covid is very similar to risk of dying in an average year... The risk is just squeezed into a shorter timescale. Think for the very elderly the risk does increase however.

To point this out isn't dismissing the immense pain and suffering caused by a loved ones death. Whether that be from covid, natural causes or otherwise.. I don't view anyone's death as just a statistic and each death has a story behind it. In saying that it's perfectly fine to post stats and fully welcome a positive slant on things mate

Note hmy doctor friend also stated if the UK really cared about people and deaths they'd ban smoking and alcohol tomorrow... Kill far more yearly that covid will and does. Its all about the NHS coping and capacity rather then the elimination of the virus.

 

[Brunneria]

Note hmy doctor friend also stated if the UK really cared about people and deaths they'd ban smoking and alcohol tomorrow... Kill far more yearly that covid will and does. Its all about the NHS coping and capacity rather then the elimination of the virus.

Yes, that was the stated goal from the outset, and in some ways, the effectiveness of the lockdown has undermined that goal.
But then so much new info is coming to light (lack of antibodies, unknown length of immunity, etc. etc.) that the goalposts seem to have changed significantly.

Re your doctor friend's comment about smoking and alcohol... I am afraid that comparison won't hold up.
If any UK govt tried to deny the populace their millennia old, socially and legally approved drugs of choice, then we would see the biggest social and political unrest this country has ever seen. Rioting would be the least of it. No govt is capable of implementing it - witness the US prohibition era.

 

[JohnEGreen]

They are only just starting to understand the long term effects of this virus such as multiple serious strokes causing extensive neurological long term damage which they think may be life long for some even in those who have had the virus and recovered and also in some of those cases where the symptoms have been relatively mild.

This happened to an extent after the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918.

 

[Fairygodmother]

If the govt could find some way to tax the virus sufferers, like they do alcohol and smoking, then they’d be even less effort to suppress it? There might even be a way for more businesses to get rich on the back of it, like with smoking and alcohol? And lobbying, donations etc? Despite its cost to the NHS? Just a thought.

 

[Fairygodmother]

Why are pillar 2 numbers not given and commented upon more?

 

[bulkbiker]

Some more discussions about numbers.

 

[lindisfel]

It would have been better if they had presented succinctly their own scientific view, rather than embark on a rather verbose and tedious session of mutual back scratching! D.

 

[lindisfel]

Don't worry there's allways the next pandemic and then we will be much more experienced in how to deal with it I believe the Chinese have already got their eyes on a new strain of flu virus G4 EA H1N1 which is worrying them a little.

If the skeptics are young enough, they may have to deal with something that is not the figment of our imaginations! But I hope not for my grandson's sake.
D.

 

[jane1950]

Many people with diabetes have reacted to yesterday's news that 25% of people who died from Covid-19 in UK hospitals also had diabetes. This is both understandable and scary, but it is not really unexpected.

Let me try to explain. I am T2, a scientist and I have been following what the epidemiologists and statisticians are learning about Covid. For example we are being told the daily death tolls. According to this 34,000 people have died in the UK from Covid by today 15 May. However, this number includes the deaths in hospitals, but not all deaths in care homes and at home. This number can be calculated by comparing the total number of deaths in the UK with the long-term average and sadly by 1 May there have already been 50,000 excess deaths in the UK

. These deaths are mostly due to Covid.

A few days ago I found a paper by the group of Ben Goldacre, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999v1. It studies the in-hospital deaths by potential risk factors. For diabetes they find the following. For the group with "controlled Diabetes", defined as HbA1c<58 mmol/mol) the risk of death was between 1.40 and 1.60 times that of non-diabetics.
For the group with "uncontrolled diabetes" defined as HbA1c>=58 mmol/mol the risk of death was between 2.18 and 2.56 times that of non-diabetics. For the group with no recent Hb1Ac measure the risk was between 1.63 and 2.16 that of non-diabetics.
In summary, depending on the severity of our diabetes the risk of death is a factor 1.5 to 2.5 higher than for non-diabetics.

In the UK almost 4 million people or 6% of the population are diagnosed with diabetes. While diabetes is increasing in younger people, we know that the rate is higher for elderly people and is probably at least twice that high (12%) in the over 65 age group. We now need to multiply this number with the 1.5 to 2.5 and can estimate that between 18% and 30% of people who died from Covid also had diabetes. This is in agreement with yesterdays announcement of 25%.

If you have other questions on the science of Covid, please feel free to ask on this thread and I'll try to answer these.

update 20 May: In this thread in post #96 I discuss the latest paper by the group of Jonathan Valabhji, see the direct link Covid/Coronavirus and diabetes - the numbers

My Hba1C last time I checked was 9.8, so striving to bring it down, but still occasionally get a high level first thing in the morning of about 12.0 blood glucose reading, even though in the middle of the night it is 7.0, and also it can go higher in the early evening if I have not done a lot of exercise, so not sure how well I would cope with covid...unless of course, I have had it mildly, one of the two unusual illnesses I have had since last November

 

[lindisfel]

The specious argument that the drop was coming from before the lock down is rubbish.
Most of us effectively locked down two weeks before Boris moved?

 

[bulkbiker]

The specious argument that the drop was coming from before the lock down is rubbish.
Most of us effectively locked down two weeks before Boris moved?

I'll respectfully disagree. If peak deaths were 08th April then lockdown can't have been that effective as most would have had to be infected, developed symptoms, been hospitalised and died within 14 days. I find that hard to believe.
Unfortunately we'll never know as the fudging of death certificates that has been allowed will likely skew the numbers forever.

 

[HSSS]

I'll respectfully disagree. If peak deaths were 08th April then lockdown can't have been that effective as most would have had to be infected, developed symptoms, been hospitalised and died within 14 days. I find that hard to believe.
Unfortunately we'll never know as the fudging of death certificates that has been allowed will likely skew the numbers forever.

I’m confused. Not quite sure what argument you and @lindisfel each are making.

I’ve been working on 3-4 weeks infected to death, maybe a bit more. 1 week incubating, 1 week sick getting worse or better, 1 week during which it gets bad enough to be admitted and a few more days to see which way it’s going from there. People and shops were locking down to some extent in at least the week before official lockdown. The peak being at 8 April suggested to me that the peak of infections occurred approximately early to Mid March - just as people got scared and took it seriously.

 

[lindisfel]

Initially the uk modellers got R rate badly wrong and they didnt really consider data from elsewhere. They made a very wrong assumption, it wasn't till later they realised the R rate was c. 3 days rather than five or so days.
It was an incorrect assumption that led to 65000 deaths that could have been halved in number.
I do not buy these conspiracy theories on climate change and this new one on covid19.

Its just simply been an enormous uk government **** up.
D.