COVID the real numbers? Not all doom and gloom.

[Brunneria]

I've just heard the same on C4 news, cases means nothing without context. Its like they are deliberately trying to create panic. It does not matter whether there is one case or 1 million cases if those who are positive have no or mild symptoms and take the necessary precautions, and those of us with co-morbidities remain cautious.

except that the number of positive tests (which will never be 100% accurate, because no test is completely accurate), gives a good indication of the amount of the coronavirus circulating in the population, both symptomatically and asymptomatically, with implications for our progress towards herd immunity - which will make a huge difference to how far our lives can return to normal over the coming winter.

I am extremely lucky to live in a part of England with v low infection rates. Am delighted for myself, my friends and colleagues, and it allows me to take fewer precautions than if the numbers were higher around here. Of course, the flip side of that means that Ikm living in an area with (probably) much lower herd immunity than (for instance) London.

I also think it is very useful to know what proportion are asymptomatic (again, that figure will never be a precise number. I've been reading some fascinating studies this week (refs available, on request ) showing what is looking like a strong link between the inoculum level, and the severity of disease. That is certainly going to inform my wearing of masks in future.

all of this is fab news - and there is plenty of fab Covid news around at the mo, but I’m not interested in blowing it up into unsubstantiated claims. That never helps.

 

[Brunneria]

Please name me another condition where symptomless positive test results (from a test which has been shown to be faulty and gives multiple false positives) would be solely used to define a "case".
When have we ever tested the well to see if they have a disease?

Sorry, but challenging me to produce evidence that has no relation to what i was saying won’t help your argument either.

 

[bulkbiker]

Sorry, but challenging me to produce evidence that has no relation to what i was saying won’t help your argument either.

So I should just bow to your superior knowledge and go away? OK fine.

 

[zand]

Please name me another condition where symptomless positive test results (from a test which has been shown to be faulty and gives multiple false positives) would be solely used to define a "case".
When have we ever tested the well to see if they have a disease?

Not exactly what you are asking for but...we do test well kids for TB antibodies before giving them the BCG jab. My own test showed up unexpectedly as positive and because I lived on a farm the farm had an extra inspection even though there had never ever been any cattle on it that had reacted positive. I have never had TB and don't know how I became immune to it.

 

[Mr_Pot]

When have we ever tested the well to see if they have a disease?

HbA1c tests, smear tests, mammograms?

 

[zand]

HbA1c tests, smear tests, mammograms?

Also HIV tests. It was routine to check pregnant women.

 

[Brunneria]

So I should just bow to your superior knowledge and go away? OK fine.

well, if you had read my earlier posts you would have seen I was simply asking you not to make OTT absolute statements.
You are, of course, welcome to continue posting whatever you like (within the forum rules), but if those posts make nonsensical absolute statements then I will continue to challenge them, as I would challenge any poster, and as you have challenged others in the past.

 

[lucylocket61]

Also HIV tests. It was routine to check pregnant women.

And several sexually transmitted diseases, some of whom remain asymptomatic but can infect others

 

[stu60]

except that the number of positive tests (which will never be 100% accurate, because no test is completely accurate), gives a good indication of the amount of the coronavirus circulating in the population, both symptomatically and asymptomatically, with implications for our progress towards herd immunity - which will make a huge difference to how far our lives can return to normal over the coming winter.

I am extremely lucky to live in a part of England with v low infection rates. Am delighted for myself, my friends and colleagues, and it allows me to take fewer precautions than if the numbers were higher around here. Of course, the flip side of that means that Ikm living in an area with (probably) much lower herd immunity than (for instance) London.

I also think it is very useful to know what proportion are asymptomatic (again, that figure will never be a precise number. I've been reading some fascinating studies this week (refs available, on request ) showing what is looking like a strong link between the inoculum level, and the severity of disease. That is certainly going to inform my wearing of masks in future.

all of this is fab news - and there is plenty of fab Covid news around at the mo, but I’m not interested in blowing it up into unsubstantiated claims. That never helps.

I think you misunderstand my point. The media report cases as if they are hospital cases which for some people can be unnecessarily distressing, if they said X were asymptomatic Y mild cases and Z hospitalised or just give the number hospitalised, then we have a better idea as to the situation. If the majority of people are not keeling over and having to be hospitalised who have been infected then for the majority there is nothing to worry about as for them it is no worse than seasonal flu. Those who are more susceptible need to take extra precautions on an informed basis, there will always be those unaware they have underlying problems who will get caught but that unfortunately is life.

 

[Hotpepper20000]

I think you misunderstand my point. The media report cases as if they are hospital cases which for some people can be unnecessarily distressing, if they said X were asymptomatic Y mild cases and Z hospitalised or just give the number hospitalised, then we have a better idea as to the situation. If the majority of people are not keeling over and having to be hospitalised who have been infected then for the majority there is nothing to worry about as for them it is no worse than seasonal flu. Those who are more susceptible need to take extra precautions on an informed basis, there will always be those unaware they have underlying problems who will get caught but that unfortunately is life.

We are fortunate here in the province I live. We get updates of new cases every second day This includes how many in hospital And ICU.
It helps keeps things in perspective.

 

[zand]

I think you misunderstand my point. The media report cases as if they are hospital cases which for some people can be unnecessarily distressing, if they said X were asymptomatic Y mild cases and Z hospitalised or just give the number hospitalised, then we have a better idea as to the situation. If the majority of people are not keeling over and having to be hospitalised who have been infected then for the majority there is nothing to worry about as for them it is no worse than seasonal flu. Those who are more susceptible need to take extra precautions on an informed basis, there will always be those unaware they have underlying problems who will get caught but that unfortunately is life.

I wasn't hospitalised but 6 months on I am still struggling. This comparison with seasonal flu that many like to use is very misleading. Covid affects the whole body and every organ not just the lungs and energy levels. I am still fatigued alot of the time, developed blood clots in ny legs weeks after the cough had gone,and now my hair is falling out. I was never tested. I personally know 4 others who weren't tested but have similar problems to me.

I have had flu 3, maybe 4 times in my life. I don't fear it at all. I do fear covid.

I believe that I had a huge viral load and I think that the precautions we are all asked to take now are vital to ensure that fewer people are hospitalised.

 

[urbanracer]

But then why no significant increases in hospitalisations?

As the article explains, most of the new cases are amongst the younger generations and they are presumably fit enough to fight it. Doesn't mean that they are symptomless and therefore not 'cases'.

Also we come back once again to viral load. The current restrictions (may) mean that they are not getting sick enough to require intervention.

Please don't misunderstand me. I am not arguing for the sake of it and I would like what Dr Kendrick is claiming to be true, I just don't see that it's supported by cast iron evidence.

 

[stu60]

I wasn't hospitalised but 6 months on I am still struggling. This comparison with seasonal flu that many like to use is very misleading. Covid affects the whole body and every organ not just the lungs and energy levels. I am still fatigued alot of the time, developed blood clots in ny legs weeks after the cough had gone,and now my hair is falling out. I was never tested. I personally know 4 others who weren't tested but have similar problems to me.

I have had flu 3, maybe 4 times in my life. I don't fear it at all. I do fear covid.

I believe that I had a huge viral load and I think that the precautions we are all asked to take now are vital to ensure that fewer people are hospitalised.

It sounds like you had a severe case and maybe should have been hospitalised, what treatment were you given? I was not comparing it with seasonal flu, I was saying that for the majority of people it is no worse than seasonal flu, you as I and just about every one else on here are in the susceptible group of the population, and are more likely to be severely effected. I had flu a few years back, had a severe cough for 6 mths. That left me wiped out for the best part of the year with fatigue etc only to go down again the following winter, admittedly it did not damage the organs like COVID-19 but it certainly knocked ten bells out of me. I feel if I did get catch it I probably would not survive but then I tick just about every box going on the susceptible list. I hope you make a full recovery.

 

[bulkbiker]

HbA1c tests, smear tests, mammograms?

Not routinely certainly not for HbA1c and I've never had a smear test or mammogram but aren't they age related?

 

[bulkbiker]

Also HIV tests. It was routine to check pregnant women.

So not everyone but pregnant women for fear of infection of the baby.

 

[lucylocket61]

I wasn't hospitalised but 6 months on I am still struggling. This comparison with seasonal flu that many like to use is very misleading. Covid affects the whole body and every organ not just the lungs and energy levels. I am still fatigued alot of the time, developed blood clots in ny legs weeks after the cough had gone,and now my hair is falling out. I was never tested. I personally know 4 others who weren't tested but have similar problems to me.

I have had flu 3, maybe 4 times in my life. I don't fear it at all. I do fear covid.

I believe that I had a huge viral load and I think that the precautions we are all asked to take now are vital to ensure that fewer people are hospitalised.

Agree, I am in the same situation but for me its been 4 months. Its nothing like the flu, I have had the flu a couple of times, and pneumonia three times. This is very different.

https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/06/2...lness-has-implications-for-returning-workers/

there are many thousands of us with this now, judging from the figures on the various social media groups.

There is no treatment given, except to rest when needed. There was no hospitalisation available, and it wouldnt have helped as it wasnt severe enough, at the acute stage, to need ventilating. Unless people were turning blue we werent even allowed to report it, there was no testing available and NHS 111 wasnt interested. Hospitalization would not have been appropriate, as this falls into the middle ground for many. We were safer at home. We have no way of knowing what the future holds.

All this talk of the asymptomatic being OK - they are carrying this illness, and spreading it to many others, who may have a medium to severe illness from it - with no way of knowing who will get ill and when. How can this be seen as Ok is beyond me.

 

[Robinredbreast]

Bowel cancer test. I will be receiving a test kit in the post very soon. Yes it is age related and I am grateful that we can be tested for potential serious medical conditions.

 

[zand]

It sounds like you had a severe case and maybe should have been hospitalised, what treatment were you given? .

No treatment. The advice was to stay at home so others didn't catch it. No help for me as a very sick person. That was the worst thing about it. You always think you can get help if you are sick. Nope not this time. I was left to my own devices. Very scary. No one cared because I was viewed as being unclean.

 

[Jaylee]

So not everyone but pregnant women for fear of infection of the baby.

In my experience it was an ex "suggesting" I get checked out. (They covered the lot. Came back clear.)
She also liked to bathe pretty "wrecked" too. Against my advice. All I could do was check she didn't pass out.

The deaths in baths. (In the article.) Does that factor in the Whitney Houstons & Jim Morrisons of the world.?

...& possibly the odd plugged in appliance..

 

[KK123]

Not routinely certainly not for HbA1c and I've never had a smear test or mammogram but aren't they age related?

Smear tests start when you're in your 20s.