Breakdown of Italy’s figures (edited title)

Oil Drum

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German numbers are looking interesting, watching for the latest Italian stats which a released around 6pm GMT. Danger is once the local numbers show drop we will relax our precautions too much and cause a second peak in new cases.
 

Oil Drum

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He is in contact with a lot of American doctors.
We are free to believe what we like, I have fairies at the bottom of my garden. :)

Trump didn't believe Coronavirus was happening, now he keeps blaming the Chinese. That is sure to get him out of a big hole, I dont think.
D.

A polls show shockingly high number of otherwise sensible people in the USA still worship Trump nothing makes his support drop below 40% of voters. Even more worringly gun sales in the USA have skyrocketed
 

JohnEGreen

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Hong Kong now seem to be having a second wave of infections.
 

Mr_Pot

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A polls show shockingly high number of otherwise sensible people in the USA still worship Trump nothing makes his support drop below 40% of voters.
That is amazing, he seems to be an egotistical idiot. Boris hardly inspires confidence but at least he doesn't undermine the advisers by claiming he is an expert on everything.
 

lindisfel

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That is amazing, he seems to be an egotistical idiot. Boris hardly inspires confidence but at least he doesn't undermine the advisers by claiming he is an expert on everything.
How true, Mr Pots!
Watched Nicola Sturgeon on the news channel yesterday. She's a strong woman and had no bumbling and fluffing, she has more 'of them' than many a man!
D.
 

JohnEGreen

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That is amazing, he seems to be an egotistical idiot. Boris hardly inspires confidence but at least he doesn't undermine the advisers by claiming he is an expert on everything.
He does have a degree in general science so he should know better
Seems to be and idiot but he knows his audience.
 

Dark Horse

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I stumbled across this on another site. Not sure what I am reading as obviously not medically trained but reading between the lines does it suggest a possible link between the flu vaccine and coronavirus with this "virus interference"? or did the conclusion rule that out? Wondering if that's why the Government have told everyone who had the flu jab to stay at home?!?!

This might be an interesting read? “Receiving influenza vaccination may increase the risk of other respiratory viruses, a phenomenon known as virus interference.” (Retrieved from. Vaccine.(2020). Influenza vaccination and respiratory virus interference among Department of Defense personnel during the 2017-2018 influenza season. Vol. 38, 2. Pages 350-354. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X19313647?via%3Dihub).
This research paper says:-

CONCLUSIONS:
Receipt of influenza vaccination was not associated with virus interference among our population.
 
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BBC news, 5pm, Italy is now increased 6,078 :(:(:(
 

JohnEGreen

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The daily fatalities numbers are dropping for two days in a row now.
 

bulkbiker

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I though this was quite an interesting analysis of numbers of people who die every year in Italy.

Between 250-300k of the over 75's die every year. 62,500 -ish every quarter.

Screenshot 2020-03-23 at 17.41.49.png


From this study

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285
 

Oil Drum

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BBC news, 5pm, Italy is now increased 6,078 :(:(:(

The media tend to focus on the total number of cases the main indicator number to watch is the number of new cases diagnosed per day which is now showing a definite decline
Daily death toll lags behind the diagnosed new cases by several days the number of new cases per day. but in Italy even the number of deaths pers day has fallen since Friday.
The number of recovered cases lags even further behind.
 

JohnEGreen

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I think when those who are left to post here in a few months time will look back at this a the most macabre period ever on this forum when we seem to spend so much time concentrating on the death toll.
 

LooperCat

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I think when those who are left to post here in a few months time will look back at this a the most macabre period ever on this forum when we seem to spend so much time concentrating on the death toll.
I suspect you’re right. Let’s just hope we all make it through, eh?
 

lucylocket61

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I think when those who are left to post here in a few months time will look back at this a the most macabre period ever on this forum when we seem to spend so much time concentrating on the death toll.
I look at the death toll as that is an indicator or what is happening and how stringent I need to be, and hope the government will be.

It is not macabre interest.
 

JohnEGreen

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If you say so I say for what ever reason including my own I have relatives living in Italy its a touch macabre.

disturbing because concerned with or causing a fear of death.

The word has gained its significance from its use in French as la danse macabre for the allegorical representation of the ever-present and universal power of death, known in English as the Dance of Death and in German as Totentanz.
 

urbanracer

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Anybody seen this report in the FT? Not specifically about Italy but it offers a very different view of the situation.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

If you click on the link it may appear to be behind a paywall but it is syndicated news that can be accessed via Google.

Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study
New epidemiological model shows vast majority of people suffer little or no illness
http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-us.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fd823f77c-6de0-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

If the results of the study are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment © Tolga Akmen/AFP

March 24, 2020 4:19 pm by Clive Cookson , Science Editor


The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.

The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.

The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.