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COVID 2019 Comorbidity with Diabetes

Yes that's what I was referring to. I understand it if diabetes is taken in its own right but how does that hazard ratio work with all the other variables. Are they just multiples together? Hard to know but what's key here is the risk again goes down with tighter control. Easier said than done but what we should all aim for
 
Both federal and state governments put out road maps for kick starting Australia again, here is Queensland's where I live.

Wooohoooooooo! bowls clubs are reopening in June...

 
copilost said:
Oh good, now Boris can copy someone's homework!
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And something for the media to compare and attack
(they will not understand or believe any differences in country disease progression )
 
I cannot believe how much this coronavirus is morphing. This article from The Washington Post provides a good overview...

Doctors keep discovering new ways the coronavirus attacks the body
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/he...virus-attacks-the-body/ar-BB13SoPn?li=BBnb7Kz

Symptoms of covid-19 appear to include:
Brain: Strokes from blood clots, neurological issues
Eyes: Pinkeye
Nose: Loss of smell and taste (anosmia)
Blood: Unexpected blood clotting; attacks the lining of blood vessels
Gastrointestinal system: Vomiting and diarrhea in some people
Lungs: Clogs and inflames alveoli (air sacs), hampering breathing; pulmonary embolism from breakaway blood clots and microclots
Heart: Weakens heart muscle; causes dangerous arrhythmias and heart attacks due to small clots
Kidneys: Damage to structures that filter waste from blood; patients often require dialysis
Skin: “Covid toes,” or fingers, a purple rash from the attack on blood vessels
Immune system: Widespread impact, including overactive immune response that attacks healthy tissue​
 
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Yes, although I read recently (sorry, don't have the link) that these mutations are often helpful.
The mutations that allow the host organism (us!) to live longer, tend to flourish, while the mutations that kill quickly, tend to have lower R numbers - mainly because if they kill the host, then they don't get to spread to new hosts.

So the milder mutations lead to fewer deaths, which lead to more infections and better survival for the virus.
There is a real possiblity that this new coronavirus may, over time, simply mutate down to the same level as the common cold.

However, only time and random mutations would allow that to happen.
 
Also just watched a very interesting podcast with a healthcare worker providing a possible "other" explanation for the increase in deaths in care homes.
Its on a private site but..

What often appears to happen (which I also noticed when my mother was hospitalised ).
Care home residents are sent to hospital with various ailments.. they spend a while there and improve then are sent back.
In my mothers case it was only the one time but apparently it can be a repetitive occurrence with patients going back and forward between care home and hospital. When in hospital they are closely monitored and treated and their condition improves (although most won't ever be "cured" per se).
At the start of the COVID outbreak hospitals were told to prepare for a vast influx of COVID patients so all the older patients were sent back to the care homes and were unlikely to be re-admitted to hospital (hence the request for new DNR's etc).
This would seem to explain the non-COVID excess deaths in care homes that we are now seeing in the weekly ONS figures as well as possibly some of the COVID deaths.. he mentioned the case of a 105 year old woman who had tested positive for COVID but was asymptomatic. She had terminal cancer and died from heart failure yet her death cert mentioned COVID..
 
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There is a lot of that happening I believe. Under normal circumstances when a person dies in a care home, as many do, a GP is sent for to complete the death certificate and ask the family if they want a postmortem. Normally the GP will have it on record what the person's ailments are and will no doubt have visited and treated them when they became ill. So they were able to complete the death cert appropriately. Since Covid, GPs are not normally visiting care home residents even when they are ill. They are asking questions of the staff and family and if it seems Covid MAY have been involved, with or without tests, words such as potential covid as a contributory factor are put on the certificate. These are then counted in the covid death figures.
 
It still goi g to come down to excess deaths over and above expected rates whether directly or indirectly caused by the pandemic and the response. Only when we can compare these figures to other countries taking significantly different actions will we know which way was ultimately more successful.

Also the period of time considered 6mth, a year, 5yrs might give quite different answers when considering the unintended casualties eg cancer, suicide, deprivation etc, and post pandemic actions ie do countries return to their old norms or adopt healthier lives......
 

Yes.
I was looking at the figs for Russia and Turkey yesterday.
Astonishingly low death rates, as represented by the official figs shown on the Worldometer site - just 47 Turkish deaths attributed to the coronavirus yesterday.
- until you look deeper and see the deaths over and above the last 5 years of deaths, and see that the Turkish 'excess' death spike e almost exactly mirrors the spikes in Spain and the UK.

And these figs just go up to the 21st April, so they are now nearly 4 weeks old.

63,000 Missing Deaths: Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Outbreak
Far more people have died over the past month than have been officially reported, a review of mortality data in 17 countries shows.
April 21, 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/world/middleeast/coronavirus-turkey-deaths.html
 

Interesting article from the ABC this morning which takes a lighter looks than the death tolls in countries that did not take action from the getgo.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-11/the-new-words-coined-during-coronavirus/12233606
 
bulkbiker said:
Hmmm likely all theory and probables rather than proof of cause but the Guardian has form on reporting certainties from scientific possibilities.
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I see your point, but I can relate to what they're saying. I live in one of the oldest houses in our neighborhood. A trolley line ran in front of our house many, many years ago. We're a block to a half mile away from four arterials that border our neighborhood. Yet in our small corner lot, we have up to five deer in our back yard, a possum, two raccoons, squirrels, the occasional rabbit, and quite a few of the neighborhood cats. One summer night, a few years ago, I had the back door open. A bat flew into the house, circled my office two times, then flew back out. The animals have lost their habitat. They live among us. No cougar has visited us yet, but there are regular sightings within a mile of our home. The black bears sometimes come down from the hills into the rural areas of our county. I worry about ticks and lyme disease now from the deer. It wasn't like this when we moved into this neighborhood 32 years ago. The population of our city is 90,000 and we don't live on the edge of the city. We live in the city.
 
Northern Ireland executive released provisional roadmap today. Mentions potential to visit or visit family (adhering to social distancing measures) for all unless shielding... Thought that was interesting as it does not mention the over 70s, clinically vulnerable group (diabetics not shielding etc) . Could be changed... But perhaps an indication of people being allowed to asses their own associated risk... No set dates as yet. Impressed with this compared to Boris statement on Sunday...
 
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