Is it really surprising ? If one were to make the argument that some of those who died recently would have died later this year, then you might expect the weekly average to dip at some point now that there is at least some degree of control over the transmission.
If the pandemic is as deadly as oft reported though then there surely should be more deaths than average every single week?
That seeing a lower than average week is moderately surprising was the point I and the article were trying to make.
In a thread about COVID the numbers I thought this was relevant.
Please delete if I was wrong to think that.
Lol. But it also keeps some of us more “concerned” from going of the deep end by forcing us to consider “the other side” in a rational way. Balance is a good thing.That'll teach me to try and post something positive about COVID.
That'll teach me to try and post something positive about COVID.
Don't worry there's allways the next pandemic and then we will be much more experienced in how to deal with it I believe the Chinese have already got their eyes on a new strain of flu virus G4 EA H1N1 which is worrying them a little.
I had a discussion with a doctor recently who is by no means covid denier but predicted that this would happen. Even the cautious BBC have stated that risk of dying from covid is very similar to risk of dying in an average year... The risk is just squeezed into a shorter timescale. Think for the very elderly the risk does increase however.That'll teach me to try and post something positive about COVID.
Note hmy doctor friend also stated if the UK really cared about people and deaths they'd ban smoking and alcohol tomorrow... Kill far more yearly that covid will and does. Its all about the NHS coping and capacity rather then the elimination of the virus.
If the skeptics are young enough, they may have to deal with something that is not the figment of our imaginations! But I hope not for my grandson's sake.Don't worry there's allways the next pandemic and then we will be much more experienced in how to deal with it I believe the Chinese have already got their eyes on a new strain of flu virus G4 EA H1N1 which is worrying them a little.
My Hba1C last time I checked was 9.8, so striving to bring it down, but still occasionally get a high level first thing in the morning of about 12.0 blood glucose reading, even though in the middle of the night it is 7.0, and also it can go higher in the early evening if I have not done a lot of exercise, so not sure how well I would cope with covid...unless of course, I have had it mildly, one of the two unusual illnesses I have had since last NovemberMany people with diabetes have reacted to yesterday's news that 25% of people who died from Covid-19 in UK hospitals also had diabetes. This is both understandable and scary, but it is not really unexpected.
Let me try to explain. I am T2, a scientist and I have been following what the epidemiologists and statisticians are learning about Covid. For example we are being told the daily death tolls. According to this 34,000 people have died in the UK from Covid by today 15 May. However, this number includes the deaths in hospitals, but not all deaths in care homes and at home. This number can be calculated by comparing the total number of deaths in the UK with the long-term average and sadly by 1 May there have already been 50,000 excess deaths in the UK. These deaths are mostly due to Covid.
A few days ago I found a paper by the group of Ben Goldacre, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999v1. It studies the in-hospital deaths by potential risk factors. For diabetes they find the following. For the group with "controlled Diabetes", defined as HbA1c<58 mmol/mol) the risk of death was between 1.40 and 1.60 times that of non-diabetics.
For the group with "uncontrolled diabetes" defined as HbA1c>=58 mmol/mol the risk of death was between 2.18 and 2.56 times that of non-diabetics. For the group with no recent Hb1Ac measure the risk was between 1.63 and 2.16 that of non-diabetics.
In summary, depending on the severity of our diabetes the risk of death is a factor 1.5 to 2.5 higher than for non-diabetics.
In the UK almost 4 million people or 6% of the population are diagnosed with diabetes. While diabetes is increasing in younger people, we know that the rate is higher for elderly people and is probably at least twice that high (12%) in the over 65 age group. We now need to multiply this number with the 1.5 to 2.5 and can estimate that between 18% and 30% of people who died from Covid also had diabetes. This is in agreement with yesterdays announcement of 25%.
If you have other questions on the science of Covid, please feel free to ask on this thread and I'll try to answer these.
update 20 May: In this thread in post #96 I discuss the latest paper by the group of Jonathan Valabhji, see the direct link Covid/Coronavirus and diabetes - the numbers
The specious argument that the drop was coming from before the lock down is rubbish.
Most of us effectively locked down two weeks before Boris moved?
I’m confused. Not quite sure what argument you and @lindisfel each are making.I'll respectfully disagree. If peak deaths were 08th April then lockdown can't have been that effective as most would have had to be infected, developed symptoms, been hospitalised and died within 14 days. I find that hard to believe.
Unfortunately we'll never know as the fudging of death certificates that has been allowed will likely skew the numbers forever.
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?