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Covid/Coronavirus and diabetes - the numbers

Discussion in 'Diabetes Discussions' started by Lupf, May 15, 2020.

  1. lindisfel

    lindisfel · Well-Known Member

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    Initially the uk modellers got R rate badly wrong and they didnt really consider data from elsewhere. They made a very wrong assumption, it wasn't till later they realised the R rate was c. 3 days rather than five or so days.
    It was an incorrect assumption that led to 65000 deaths that could have been halved in number.
    I do not buy these conspiracy theories on climate change and this new one on covid19.

    Its just simply been an enormous uk government **** up.
    D.
     
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  2. HSSS

    HSSS Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    Isn’t the r rate how many people each infected person infects? Not a days thing?
     
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  3. bulkbiker

    bulkbiker Type 2 · Oracle

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    I and many others (although rarely reported in the main stream news outlets) think that the virus deaths/infections had already started to decline before "lockdown" was instigated thus it was for the most part unnecessary and costly.
    It has caused both economic tragedy and has instilled hysteria and fear into the general population.
    It is quite unlikely to have saved many lives.
    Others disagree.
     
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  4. bulkbiker

    bulkbiker Type 2 · Oracle

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  5. Jim Lahey

    Jim Lahey I reversed my Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    And highly likely to have cost more lives than it saved. As well as ruining the livelihoods of countless others.
     
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  6. lindisfel

    lindisfel · Well-Known Member

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    Hi HSSS,
    A good point.
    I get really confused when there is more than one variable and one has to start using calculus. :)
    I was referring to what was said on the R4 prog more or less.
    They thought it was c.5 days on average from being infected to producing spreadable virus. Apparently it was c.3 days. This led to them thinking they were 4 weeks behind Italy when in fact they were 10 days....and hence here we are 65000 deaths later.
    The lock down would have been far more life saving if they could have shunted it back four weeks and Matt Hancock had actually put his ring of care around care homes.
    We must get Dr Who to reverse time and restart the clock.
    D.
     
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    #346 lindisfel, Jul 2, 2020 at 10:43 AM
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2020
  7. lindisfel

    lindisfel · Well-Known Member

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    Well a man must preach his faith, however science driven it proves to be.
    I dont go in for gurus myself.

    I'll be interested in your take on the second lock downs affecting the States, you'll be telling us next they are unnecessary?
    D.
     
    #347 lindisfel, Jul 2, 2020 at 10:46 AM
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2020
  8. bulkbiker

    bulkbiker Type 2 · Oracle

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    Well the mainstream narrative has switched from counting the total number of deaths to the number of "cases". You may not have noticed but that's what has happened.
    The more testing that goes on the more cases will be uncovered but hospitalisations and deaths are what we should be worried about.
    Only time will tell if the second lock downs work but they weren't necessary in Sweden (no lock down at all) so it may be down to something else.. like metabolic health maybe?
    The US probably being one of the unhealthiest countries in the world?
    Although their deaths per million of pop (395) are still way behind ours (647) and Belgium (842).
     
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  9. Tophat1900

    Tophat1900 Type 3c · Well-Known Member

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    I don't go in for gurus myself either, but that's the great thing about Ivor.... he interviews the people who really know their stuff. Worth checking him out.
     
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  10. Mr_Pot

    Mr_Pot Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    Does he ever interview people he disagrees with? It would be much more interesting if there was some debate.
     
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  11. lindisfel

    lindisfel · Well-Known Member

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    If you really want to make a case out of a **** up.
    Compare the uk with Germany or Finland.
    Its not that lock downs dont work its our lock down was too late.
    We had no track and trace and are still getting mixed messages from Government.
    I am very conversant with the number of deaths, they are still over 500 per week at last count.
    D.
     
  12. bulkbiker

    bulkbiker Type 2 · Oracle

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    "From" or "with" COVID is key and of course the 10k deaths that happen every week anyway?

    The statistics from the few countries that didn't do it at all unfortunately tend to disagree with you.
    Japan for example. An old article but still fairly valid nonetheless 974 total deaths as of yesterday.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ccess-story-how-japan-has-tackled-coronavirus
     
  13. bryanmccrae

    bryanmccrae Type 1 · Newbie

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    Has anyone seen any data about outcomes for diabetics in the Uk who have tested positive eg what proportion need hospitalisation, recover at home, etc.
     
  14. Mrs T 123

    Mrs T 123 Type 2 (in remission!) · Well-Known Member

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    Good question - I don't know the answers but it is something I have thought a lot about myself ?
     
  15. Brunneria

    Brunneria Other · Moderator
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    You have said, many times, that you distrust the way COVID figs are collated and interpreted.
    So why are you assuming that the deaths/mil for the UK, US and Belgium are accurate enough to support your argument?

    Please understand, I neither agree, nor disagree, with your post.
    I just think that you are using stats to support your view, when you have previously stated that such stats, particularly death certificate evidence and testing figs, are unreliable, and represent different things, in different countries.
     
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  16. Erin

    Erin Type 2 · Well-Known Member

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    Thank you for this well-reviewed report. I do wonder though, if other diseases or medical interventions do not have greater or at least equal risks of death or disability due to diabetes controlled or not.
     
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  17. lindisfel

    lindisfel · Well-Known Member

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    Hi Brunneria,
    Its known as 'cherry picking', its a well known approach of those who claim they are using science to refute opposition to their pet conspiracy theory.

    I have a lot of experience of this when arguing with climate change sceptics.
    Eventually one has to walk away because they never answer the questions, but respond with cherry picking more 'facts'.:);)
    D.
     
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  18. bulkbiker

    bulkbiker Type 2 · Oracle

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    They aren't but they are all we have at the moment?

    Why are members here usually so happy to question the narrative on T2 and weight loss suddenly so accepting of the "norm" that any attempt to present a different point of view gets attacked?

    I've simply presented alternative views from a significant number of smart people.
    If members don't like it then they can simply ignore my rantings.

    The stats that are there simply do not support the narratives that we are being sold.
    So maybe its not the stats but the stories that are wrong.
     
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  19. Jamie H

    Jamie H · Well-Known Member

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    Only study if this nature I've seen was from the US in type 1s. Over 50% dealt with the condition at home. Few issues with the study such as small data set and didn't break down if this correlated with other things such as weight or control etc.

    The nhs data on diabetes and covid deaths would indicate that there is a very wide degree of risk based on a whole range of parameters such as age, type of diabetes, weight, control etc. I'd assume therefore that this would translate to a degree on severity and hospitalisations. Though some covid hospitalisation will be as a result of DKA rather than severe covid. Note Dr Partha Kar indicated DKA is rarely what results in death of diabetics with covid. Same from the US study.

    Caveat all of this of course by the fact some fit and healthy people take a bad reaction to covid and a small amount unfortunately die from it.
     
  20. Brunneria

    Brunneria Other · Moderator
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    What makes you think that people have suddenly stopped questioning?
    I question every stat, every day.
    So do many others on here.

    The more I look at them, the more obvious the unreliabilities become. Different death cert conventions, political pressures, admin systems and things being recorded. The disparities are enormous.

    I have no issue with discussing them (along with their failings), but I question taking them at face value, when they just happen to fit a theory. That is how Fat Hypotheses and houses of cards are built.
     
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