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May & Leadsom...Who Will Be Our Next PM?

Well, I guess reading the posts, many on here should be running the country, and sorting the banking system out as well.
Time will tell.
You live in interesting times.
Me, I'm just balancing my losses on the exchanges rate as the pound plummets, against stocks that are performing well for exactly the same reason.
Banking is such a fickle mistress.
 
eddie1968 said:
My Constituency has always been Labour with hefty 10,000+ majorities every election. In 2015 Labour lost here and the SNP won with a swing of 34% and a majority of 10,000+. This pattern was repeated all throughout Scotland as people who usually voted Labour felt they didn't represent them anymore and were out of touch. I think this is contagious and will split the party. :)
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Incredible!!

When you see stats for a single constituency like you have just presented it brings home the level of destruction Labour have brought upon themselves.


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Sorry lads footie is starting....second half....bye:)


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KevinPotts said:
If what you are saying is born out by the evidence then I do worry, as we really do need a strong opposition to provide balance and stability within any democracy.


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I worry a fair number of labour voters will vote elsewhere... UKIP... :(
 
SunnyExpat said:
Well, I guess reading the posts, many on here should be running the country, and sorting the banking system out as well.
.
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Sorry, keep forgetting we need to get approval before expressing opinions.

Heaven help us if someone might even have some knowledge or experience of the "real world"




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britishpub said:
Sorry, keep forgetting we need to get approval before expressing opinions.

Heaven help us if someone might even have some knowledge or experience of the "real world"




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No fighting now you two cheeky monkeys:)


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britishpub said:
It's rather worrying that her main claim to credibility is that she worked in "Investment Banking" yet she clearly has no idea how the markets work.

It is easy media nonsense to think that the value of a currency has anything whatsoever to do with the base rate in any particular country.

The market does not work that way, the investors who trade in currency to not do so based on what interest rate they can get at their local Building Society.

If the Interest Rate in a particular country is set at a level that is inconsisitent with that countries economy, the cuurency will come under pressure and will likely fall in relative value. (FX rates are relative value not absolute value).

If the BOE cut interest rates, and the market believes that the general state of the economy does not warrant lower rates, the currency will fall. If however the market believes that lower rates will benefit the economy the currency will rise.

The events of 1992 should show how this works.

The BOE were forced to raise rates in response to Germany raising rates due to the huge costs of German reunification. At the time our economy was quite fragile, and the UK (along with most of the rest of Europe) were on the brink of recession. The market spotted this anomoly (George Soros in particular) and began to sell GBP (as well as the ITL and FFR and other currencies in the ERM) and the end result was the crisis in September 1992 (Black Wednesday) when despite the BOE raising rates repeatedly, GBP kept falling and we were forced to leave the ERM and float GBP which fell a long way.

Higher rates do not automatically mean a strnger currency, as lower rates do not automatically mean a weaker currency.

Investment Banking 101.

P.S. I was a FX trader for 16 years in the City, working for a a couple of large US Banks, and was working on 16th September 1992.
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Nick Leeson was a derivatives broker that understood the market.

But the markets don't work that way, many other things influence them in reality.
 
britishpub said:
If it's not May, then we are going to be in an even bigger mess than we are already :banghead:

My wife has an Irish passport, and if a Brexit lunatic becomes PM I will be claiming Irish citizenship as well.
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Do you have to live in Ireland first?
 
KevinPotts said:
As a Remainer that's my biggest concern and why I'm more inclined to vote Leadsom, but it's not settled for me yet.


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Once again people are expected to vote not knowing people's full intentions. Having a guess on who will make the right decision for our country.
I'll be guessing, nothing more. I believe in voting so I will if I'm invited too.
I'm not one to shirk my responsibilities.
 
SunnyExpat said:
Nick Leeson was a derivatives broker that understood the market.

But the markets don't work that way, many other things influence them in reality.
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Leeson was not a broker.

He also didn't understand the market which is why he bankrupted Baring Brothers.

The Markets are influenced by many things, which is what I stated. It is never as simple as it is portrayed by the media.

Why you feel the need to post in the way you do is ridiculous.

If you need me to explain anything that I have posted please ask, and I will try to help.


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britishpub said:
Leeson was not a broker.

He also didn't understand the market which is why he bankrupted Baring Brothers.

The Markets are influenced by many things, which is what I stated. It is never as simple as it is portrayed by the media.

Why you feel the need to post in the way you do is ridiculous.

If you need me to explain anything that I have posted please ask, and I will try to help.


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I reckon I'll be okay, but it's good of you to offer.
As you say, many in the business don't really know what they're doing.
 
jay hay-char said:
I'm in the same position i. e. Wife who can get an Irish passport (kids likewise) but I don't qualify as such. I believe I'd have to live in the Republic for three (I think ) years in total to get an Irish passport.

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Well that's put a kybosh on that plan.

At least the wife can retire to Spain even if I have to stay here......

I knew I should have got that Green Card when I had the chance


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britishpub said:
Well that's put a kybosh on that plan.

At least the wife can retire to Spain even if I have to stay here......

I knew I should have got that Green Card when I had the chance


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That's a shame.
 
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