What does the UK leaving the EU mean for us?

[ickihun]

I'm prepared to give our country a chance. A chance to not make the same mistakes.
I hope we arent signing up to something we will regret. Instead of taking the bull by the horns.
Sometimes you have to take a step back to take in the whole picture.
The whole picture.
I have to trust the politicians have seen the light.
They have my support.

 

[zand]

I keep hearing this repeated on this forum but I haven't heard one person say to me they regret their decision. I have not seen one person write on social media that they regret their decision. Feels to me as though it is just propaganda from the remain voters.
If there are any leave voters who read this and have changed their mind, please do let us know and why.

Hmmm there also seems to be a lot of wringing of hands on this thread "Oh the poor, the poor" The people I know personally, not forum people, who voted leave are not poor. They are just the type to believe the tabloids and vote accordingly, too lazy, too ignorant to think for themselves. One is a builder! The others are above average wage earners, some of whom don't even realise yet that there are implications for their own jobs when we leave. The poor people I know and have met since the referendum were all remain voters and are as devastated as me about the result. More propaganda there then.

 

[zand]

I'm prepared to give our country a chance. A chance to not make the same mistakes.
I hope we arent signing up to something we will regret. Instead of taking the bull by the horns.
Sometimes you have to take a step back to take in the whole picture.
The whole picture.
I have to trust the politicians have seen the light.
They have my support.

???? They don't even support the idea themselves. They don't have a plan.

 

[ChrisSamsDad]

Well there you go, what can I say, seems there is quite a lot you don't understand. I wasn't 'clamouring' for anything, neither was most of the population! It was offered to us - as PM it was his responsibility to have a forward plan (other than running away). As PM he is the only one that can activate article 50, so it is his responsibility, or should I say was! It is like offering your child a choice: a nice chocolate bar or a nice piece of fruit. You are hoping the child is going to choose the fruit but of course, they chose the chocolate. Unfortunately for you, you do not have chocolate and no shops are open and you have no intention of going to find any chocolate. Perhaps you shouldn't have given the option in the first place. Perhaps you should have made sure you had the chocolate available or a means to obtain some?

I appreciate the analogy of the leave voters being like children who can't make the best choice for themselves, but to extend your analogy, it's like saying in that instance: here's the sensible choice, you can take it or have something else - then when they choose 'something else' they then expect you to know exactly what it is they want, make it better than the sensible choice and arrange it for them, whereas you say, "OK, here's the money - go and sort it out yourself you ungrateful brat"

 

[KevinPotts]

I appreciate the analogy of the leave voters being like children who can't make the best choice for themselves, but to extend your analogy, it's like saying in that instance: here's the sensible choice, you can take it or have something else - then when they choose 'something else' they then expect you to know exactly what it is they want, make it better than the sensible choice and arrange it for them, whereas you say, "OK, here's the money - go and sort it out yourself you ungrateful brat"

We have exercised democracy and we have to exit the EU.

We now need a statesman of "churchillian" stature to guide us through to the other side, with a heart, vision and passion towards this entire nation and across all parties.


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[lindisfel]

Media reports 6% of leave voters regret their vote.

I keep hearing this repeated on this forum but I haven't heard one person say to me they regret their decision. I have not seen one person write on social media that they regret their decision. Feels to me as though it is just propaganda from the remain voters.
If there are any leave voters who read this and have changed their mind, please do let us know and why.

 

[hankjam]

https://www.facebook.com/groups/2215391357/
don't really need to add anymore.

 

[lindisfel]

Whenever I look at Facebook I get a load personal unwanted spam. You need to work out how to filter your stuff better.

 

[Jaylee]

https://www.facebook.com/groups/2215391357/
don't really need to add anymore.

Then there is the laughing stock factor with the rest of the world...

Just a sample..

 

[KevinPotts]

https://www.facebook.com/groups/2215391357/
don't really need to add anymore.

Prof Dougan has an excellent handle on the situation as a prof of European law and I previously posted his 20 minutes summary on here prior to the referendum.

Now we are the other side of our national
decision and hopefully people like Dougan who really do know what they are talking about, can help navigate us to calmer waters.


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[hankjam]

Whenever I look at Facebook I get a load personal unwanted spam. You need to work out how to filter your stuff better.

I'm thinking that maybe, if you're getting the spam, your filters might need a look see...
My set up rocks, thank you for your concern.

 

[ChrisSamsDad]

We have exercised democracy and we have to exit the EU.

We now need a statesman of "churchillian" stature to guide us through to the other side, with a heart, vision and passion towards this entire nation and across all parties.

Well, we don't HAVE to exit the EU in fact. it was just a poll. We need an act of parliament to leave, that's how we do democracy here. If there was an election called, and the party returned was promising not to Brexit, where would that leave us. Gove would take us out, but he's an unelectable muppet, and the vile May is a remainer.

 

[KevinPotts]

Yep...if you want riots on the streets and social unrest run rife.

I was a clear Remain, but I accept the premise and core intention of holding the Ref, namely to act upon the majority will of those who voted.


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[lindisfel]

Exit seems to be saying, like some kind of star trek computer. " Insufficient data to compute! " There appears to be several iterations of exit , the referendum was simplistic and gives no guidance whatsoever. Perhaps Cameron should let us know what was in his mind when he framed the question for the referendum. I bet May and Gove don't concur on what exit means.

 

[KevinPotts]

Exit seems to be saying, like some kind of star trek computer. " Insufficient data to compute! " There appears to be several iterations of exit , the referendum was simplistic and gives no guidance whatsoever. Perhaps Cameron should let us know what was in his mind when he framed the question for the referendum. I bet May and Gove don't concur on what exit means.

Totally different views.

Out in all its variants means an economically diminished United Kingdom for many years to come.

There simply is NOT a nice, tidy, elegant, painless transition.


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[tim2000s]

Totally different views.

Out in all its variants means an economically diminished United Kingdom for many years to come.

There simply is NOT a nice tidy, elegant, painless transition.


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I think that last sentence sums it up perfectly. Kramer vs Kramer springs to mind.


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[SunnyExpat]

Well there you go, what can I say, seems there is quite a lot you don't understand. I wasn't 'clamouring' for anything, neither was most of the population! It was offered to us - as PM it was his responsibility to have a forward plan (other than running away). As PM he is the only one that can activate article 50, so it is his responsibility, or should I say was! It is like offering your child a choice: a nice chocolate bar or a nice piece of fruit. You are hoping the child is going to choose the fruit but of course, they chose the chocolate. Unfortunately for you, you do not have chocolate and no shops are open and you have no intention of going to find any chocolate. Perhaps you shouldn't have given the option in the first place. Perhaps you should have made sure you had the chocolate available or a means to obtain some?

This is actually a good analogy.
Dad Cameron offered his kid a nice piece of fruit, the same fruit the child always has.
They both know what it does, it's healthy, good for the child, and the child has been eating the fruit for years.
All the neighbours share the fruit, and freely cross into each others gardens to pick the fruit.
They tend each other's trees, and when some fail, they all pass the fruit around.
Along comes a strange clown from London, with wild hair, and strange promises of chocolate. Not his chocolate, he hasn't any, and doesn't have any plan to get any, just the promise that if he spends the night with the clown, chocolate will appear the next day by magic.
So, the child abandoned his father, and runs away with the strange clown, and does as the clowns wishes.
The next day, the child wakes up, and finds not only has dad still got only fruit, but the clown has run away.

In the cold bleak morning, the ungrateful child finds his dad is heartbroken his child abandoned him, and ignored his wise advice, because a clown made empty promises, in his father's name.
His father accepts the child has grown beyond him, and the child needs to go his own way, so the father respects his wishes.
But, the child realises not only has the clown run away, after his black night with the child, but the child had been passed on to the clown's evil uncle, who stabbed the clown in the back as he left.
The child wonders what will become of him, now that even the clown is gone?

 

[KevinPotts]

Some weeks back I posted the following in the EU Poll we ran within this community and I'd like to extend my observations a little further, but for the sake of completeness, here was my trigger post:

"EU - In or Out + Poll. I've had another round of deep thinking ...well not that deep really... about IN/OUT whilst on hols this week.

So let's say Friday morning at 7AM the decision is OUT...Leave... What does it mean?

I know, I know you all think "Potts has finally lost it, he's gone bonkers" as Leave means exactly what it says in the tin!

Does it?

Leave triggers a 2 years negotiation to fulfil the democratic wishes of the people. Emmmm.

So what will that negotiation involve?

Well it will involve deciding what Leave means...seriously!

Do we step OUT completely and entirely and follow a World Trade Organisation model, negotiating our own trade agreements...maybe.

This is the nearest expression of what most of the population will think of when we say LEAVE.

But of course at the end of the 2 years negotiation with Europe, the negotiated agreement will have to go through our parliament for approval.

So with a Conservative government with a majority of just 13, is it likely that Labour, Lib Dems, SNP and 50% of the Cons (all of whom wanted to Remain) will agree to this definition of Leave....doubtful. So that negotiated version of Leave may very well struggle to be approved.

Or we could end up at the end of 2 years with a multitude of variations upon what Leave means.

Nearly all the rest will include access to the Single Market or a variant... And guess what that will involve...a LARGE financial contribution from the UK to Europe and a commitment to the FREE MOVEMENT of people, but without any say... We will have Left.

How will parliament feel about getting one of those options approved?

Well I think begrudgingly , Labour, SNP, Lib Dems and 50% of Cons will approve it.

But the rest of the electorate, we'll be confused and angry and could there be blood on the streets? I don't know, but I can envisage some irreparable fault lines occurring in party politics.

So my friends... Just chewing the fat ... If we Leave... If we are OUT Friday morning, what does that mean? "


Having broadly seen the position we now find ourselves in, I've been thinking some more and have a few more observations:

1. What will the final model of out look like? It will broadly be one of three options, nuisanced by our specific negotiations:

- access to the EEA (European Economic Area) which is like being part of the Single Market, paying a contribution of similar or more than our existing contribution, abiding by EU laws, observing the 4 freedoms (capital, goods, services & people), non tariff access, no decision making powers within the EU. This is probably what most economists/ finance sector hope for, but in my opinion would be the most unlikely to occur as there would be uproar from the electorate (Leavers).

- access via what is called an Associate Agreement. A watered down version of EEA, with more restrictions and still some form of free movement of people.

- access via WTO (World Trade Organisation) rules. This is likely to satisfy the will of the electorate (Leavers) more than any other options, but would involve tariffs. For example it is on this basis that the USA trades with the EU and they face a 10% tariff on automotive imports from the USA. This would be the most economically disastrous model for the UK.

2. I have 4 observations each of which are critical to our exit and each of which will impact one way or another on these variants:

A. The Financial Services Sector - we are the 500lb gorilla of Europe for this sector and for us to continue to dominate and even continue to operate in a strong position, we absolutely need free and unfettered access to the EEA. But I've explained the costs and social implications above.

So what do we do?

B. Automotive Industry - we have a high level of committed foreign investment in this UK industry (Nissan, Jaguar/Land Rover etc etc), quite literally billions of £s of investment. What happens if WTO rules apply and even modest tariffs of the likes of the USA come into force? Loss of investment, jobs, certainly this entire industry becomes uncompetitive. Listening to the key spokesperson for the German Automotive Industry, he made clear Germany are willing to cut off their nose despite their face in terms of the rigid application of EEA rules.

So what do we do?

C. Pharmaceuticals - as a resident of Cambridge I can tell you that the likes of Astra Zenica are already back peddling on commitments to huge UK investment since the result of the referendum. They are not prepared to stomach WTO rules and of course, the blunting of their competitive edge is unavoidable, should we pursue this ultimate route.

So what do we do?


D. Technology Sector - this is a remarkably nimble area of the U.K. economy and I speak from personal experience when I say that many of these businesses both large and small, can in a matter of days (I'm serious - days) would be able to up and move sticks should the need arise based on the outcome of negotiations.

So what do we do?

Jeremy Hunt has already alluded to a further referendum to approve which ever option we negotiate, be that via a General Election which would be a single issue election, approve or not approve or indeed another referendum, expressly for the same purpose.

So, my friends, the issues are huge and distil down to one big question - What Do We Do?

Do we press on remorselessly with a WTO option and face the prospect of destroying our Financial Services Sector, our foreign automotive investment, Pharma pull back and relocation and mass movement of our Tech sector at a moments notice, but be truly free of the EU?

OR,

Do we negotiate the best we can, substantially protect our economy and services, but accept all the conditions we currently operate under, massive financial contribution and the 4 movements including people with NO say and begrudgingly lick our wounds?

Our options are clear to me and we must make our choice as a unified sovereign state, but the cost either way is exorbitant!


AND another thought....number 5(E), our farming industry is screwed when we lose the CAP and have to create our own BAP!



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[Catlady19]

I appreciate the analogy of the leave voters being like children who can't make the best choice for themselves, but to extend your analogy, it's like saying in that instance: here's the sensible choice, you can take it or have something else - then when they choose 'something else' they then expect you to know exactly what it is they want, make it better than the sensible choice and arrange it for them, whereas you say, "OK, here's the money - go and sort it out yourself you ungrateful brat"

Ha ha, see I knew if I explained it in childish terms you would understand! That is exactly what Cameron has done, here you go sort it for yourself!

 

[Catlady19]

This is actually a good analogy.
Dad Cameron offered his kid a nice piece of fruit, the same fruit the child always has.
They both know what it does, it's healthy, good for the child, and the child has been eating the fruit for years.
All the neighbours share the fruit, and freely cross into each others gardens to pick the fruit.
They tend each other's trees, and when some fail, they all pass the fruit around.
Along comes a strange clown from London, with wild hair, and strange promises of chocolate. Not his chocolate, he hasn't any, and doesn't have any plan to get any, just the promise that if he spends the night with the clown, chocolate will appear the next day by magic.
So, the child abandoned his father, and runs away with the strange clown, and does as the clowns wishes.
The next day, the child wakes up, and finds not only has dad still got only fruit, but the clown has run away.

In the cold bleak morning, the ungrateful child finds his dad is heartbroken his child abandoned him, and ignored his wise advice, because a clown made empty promises, in his father's name.
His father accepts the child has grown beyond him, and the child needs to go his own way, so the father respects his wishes.
But, the child realises not only has the clown run away, after his black night with the child, but the child had been passed on to the clown's evil uncle, who stabbed the clown in the back as he left.
The child wonders what will become of him, now that even the clown is gone?

You have a very disturbed mind and what kind of father abandons his child after offering fruit OR chocolate? It wasn't the clown that started the referendum it was the father!