Bluetit1802
Legend
Surmising that the swing came from ukip!
You surmise correctly, in part, but the turnout was vastly larger this time, so partly from these extra folk too plus a diminished Lib Dem vote. It is a foregone conclusion in my constituency. The only time I ever remember a non-Tory MP was a local Lib Dem in a bye-election, and that was very brief.