Covid/Coronavirus and diabetes - the numbers

HSSS

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Isn’t the r rate how many people each infected person infects? Not a days thing?
 

bulkbiker

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I’m confused. Not quite sure what argument you and @lindisfel each are making.

I and many others (although rarely reported in the main stream news outlets) think that the virus deaths/infections had already started to decline before "lockdown" was instigated thus it was for the most part unnecessary and costly.
It has caused both economic tragedy and has instilled hysteria and fear into the general population.
It is quite unlikely to have saved many lives.
Others disagree.
 

lindisfel

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Isn’t the r rate how many people each infected person infects? Not a days thing?
Hi HSSS,
A good point.
I get really confused when there is more than one variable and one has to start using calculus. :)
I was referring to what was said on the R4 prog more or less.
They thought it was c.5 days on average from being infected to producing spreadable virus. Apparently it was c.3 days. This led to them thinking they were 4 weeks behind Italy when in fact they were 10 days....and hence here we are 65000 deaths later.
The lock down would have been far more life saving if they could have shunted it back four weeks and Matt Hancock had actually put his ring of care around care homes.
We must get Dr Who to reverse time and restart the clock.
D.
 
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lindisfel

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I and many others (although rarely reported in the main stream news outlets) think that the virus deaths/infections had already started to decline before "lockdown" was instigated thus it was for the most part unnecessary and costly.
It has caused both economic tragedy and has instilled hysteria and fear into the general population.
It is quite unlikely to have saved many lives.
Others disagree.
Well a man must preach his faith, however science driven it proves to be.
I dont go in for gurus myself.

I'll be interested in your take on the second lock downs affecting the States, you'll be telling us next they are unnecessary?
D.
 
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bulkbiker

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Well a man must preach his faith, however science driven it proves to be.
I dont go in for gurus myself.

I'll be interested in your take on the second lock downs affecting the States, you'll be telling us next they are unnecessary?
D.

Well the mainstream narrative has switched from counting the total number of deaths to the number of "cases". You may not have noticed but that's what has happened.
The more testing that goes on the more cases will be uncovered but hospitalisations and deaths are what we should be worried about.
Only time will tell if the second lock downs work but they weren't necessary in Sweden (no lock down at all) so it may be down to something else.. like metabolic health maybe?
The US probably being one of the unhealthiest countries in the world?
Although their deaths per million of pop (395) are still way behind ours (647) and Belgium (842).
 

Tophat1900

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Well a man must preach his faith, however science driven it proves to be.
I dont go in for gurus myself.

I'll be interested in your take on the second lock downs affecting the States, you'll be telling us next they are unnecessary?
D.

I don't go in for gurus myself either, but that's the great thing about Ivor.... he interviews the people who really know their stuff. Worth checking him out.
 

Mr_Pot

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I don't go in for gurus myself either, but that's the great thing about Ivor.... he interviews the people who really know their stuff. Worth checking him out.
Does he ever interview people he disagrees with? It would be much more interesting if there was some debate.
 

lindisfel

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If you really want to make a case out of a **** up.
Compare the uk with Germany or Finland.
Its not that lock downs dont work its our lock down was too late.
We had no track and trace and are still getting mixed messages from Government.
I am very conversant with the number of deaths, they are still over 500 per week at last count.
D.
 

bulkbiker

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they are still over 500 per week at last count.

"From" or "with" COVID is key and of course the 10k deaths that happen every week anyway?

Its not that lock downs dont work its our lock down was too late.

The statistics from the few countries that didn't do it at all unfortunately tend to disagree with you.
Japan for example. An old article but still fairly valid nonetheless 974 total deaths as of yesterday.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ccess-story-how-japan-has-tackled-coronavirus
 

bryanmccrae

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Has anyone seen any data about outcomes for diabetics in the Uk who have tested positive eg what proportion need hospitalisation, recover at home, etc.
 

Mrs T 123

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Has anyone seen any data about outcomes for diabetics in the Uk who have tested positive eg what proportion need hospitalisation, recover at home, etc.
Good question - I don't know the answers but it is something I have thought a lot about myself ?
 

Brunneria

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Well the mainstream narrative has switched from counting the total number of deaths to the number of "cases". You may not have noticed but that's what has happened.
The more testing that goes on the more cases will be uncovered but hospitalisations and deaths are what we should be worried about.
Only time will tell if the second lock downs work but they weren't necessary in Sweden (no lock down at all) so it may be down to something else.. like metabolic health maybe?
The US probably being one of the unhealthiest countries in the world?
Although their deaths per million of pop (395) are still way behind ours (647) and Belgium (842).

You have said, many times, that you distrust the way COVID figs are collated and interpreted.
So why are you assuming that the deaths/mil for the UK, US and Belgium are accurate enough to support your argument?

Please understand, I neither agree, nor disagree, with your post.
I just think that you are using stats to support your view, when you have previously stated that such stats, particularly death certificate evidence and testing figs, are unreliable, and represent different things, in different countries.
 

Erin

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Many people with diabetes have reacted to yesterday's news that 25% of people who died from Covid-19 in UK hospitals also had diabetes. This is both understandable and scary, but it is not really unexpected.

Let me try to explain. I am T2, a scientist and I have been following what the epidemiologists and statisticians are learning about Covid. For example we are being told the daily death tolls. According to this 34,000 people have died in the UK from Covid by today 15 May. However, this number includes the deaths in hospitals, but not all deaths in care homes and at home. This number can be calculated by comparing the total number of deaths in the UK with the long-term average and sadly by 1 May there have already been 50,000 excess deaths in the UK
1
. These deaths are mostly due to Covid.

A few days ago I found a paper by the group of Ben Goldacre, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999v1. It studies the in-hospital deaths by potential risk factors. For diabetes they find the following. For the group with "controlled Diabetes", defined as HbA1c<58 mmol/mol) the risk of death was between 1.40 and 1.60 times that of non-diabetics.
For the group with "uncontrolled diabetes" defined as HbA1c>=58 mmol/mol the risk of death was between 2.18 and 2.56 times that of non-diabetics. For the group with no recent Hb1Ac measure the risk was between 1.63 and 2.16 that of non-diabetics.
In summary, depending on the severity of our diabetes the risk of death is a factor 1.5 to 2.5 higher than for non-diabetics.

In the UK almost 4 million people or 6% of the population are diagnosed with diabetes. While diabetes is increasing in younger people, we know that the rate is higher for elderly people and is probably at least twice that high (12%) in the over 65 age group. We now need to multiply this number with the 1.5 to 2.5 and can estimate that between 18% and 30% of people who died from Covid also had diabetes. This is in agreement with yesterdays announcement of 25%.

If you have other questions on the science of Covid, please feel free to ask on this thread and I'll try to answer these.

update 20 May: In this thread in post #96 I discuss the latest paper by the group of Jonathan Valabhji, see the direct link Covid/Coronavirus and diabetes - the numbers

Thank you for this well-reviewed report. I do wonder though, if other diseases or medical interventions do not have greater or at least equal risks of death or disability due to diabetes controlled or not.
 
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lindisfel

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Hi Brunneria,
Its known as 'cherry picking', its a well known approach of those who claim they are using science to refute opposition to their pet conspiracy theory.

I have a lot of experience of this when arguing with climate change sceptics.
Eventually one has to walk away because they never answer the questions, but respond with cherry picking more 'facts'.:);)
D.
 

bulkbiker

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You have said, many times, that you distrust the way COVID figs are collated and interpreted.
So why are you assuming that the deaths/mil for the UK, US and Belgium are accurate enough to support your argument?

They aren't but they are all we have at the moment?

Why are members here usually so happy to question the narrative on T2 and weight loss suddenly so accepting of the "norm" that any attempt to present a different point of view gets attacked?

I've simply presented alternative views from a significant number of smart people.
If members don't like it then they can simply ignore my rantings.

The stats that are there simply do not support the narratives that we are being sold.
So maybe its not the stats but the stories that are wrong.
 

Jamie H

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Has anyone seen any data about outcomes for diabetics in the Uk who have tested positive eg what proportion need hospitalisation, recover at home, etc.
Only study if this nature I've seen was from the US in type 1s. Over 50% dealt with the condition at home. Few issues with the study such as small data set and didn't break down if this correlated with other things such as weight or control etc.

The nhs data on diabetes and covid deaths would indicate that there is a very wide degree of risk based on a whole range of parameters such as age, type of diabetes, weight, control etc. I'd assume therefore that this would translate to a degree on severity and hospitalisations. Though some covid hospitalisation will be as a result of DKA rather than severe covid. Note Dr Partha Kar indicated DKA is rarely what results in death of diabetics with covid. Same from the US study.

Caveat all of this of course by the fact some fit and healthy people take a bad reaction to covid and a small amount unfortunately die from it.
 

Brunneria

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They aren't but they are all we have at the moment?

Why are members here usually so happy to question the narrative on T2 and weight loss suddenly so accepting of the "norm" that any attempt to present a different point of view gets attacked?

I've simply presented alternative views from a significant number of smart people.
If members don't like it then they can simply ignore my rantings.

The stats that are there simply do not support the narratives that we are being sold.
So maybe its not the stats but the stories that are wrong.

What makes you think that people have suddenly stopped questioning?
I question every stat, every day.
So do many others on here.

The more I look at them, the more obvious the unreliabilities become. Different death cert conventions, political pressures, admin systems and things being recorded. The disparities are enormous.

I have no issue with discussing them (along with their failings), but I question taking them at face value, when they just happen to fit a theory. That is how Fat Hypotheses and houses of cards are built.
 

HSSS

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They aren't but they are all we have at the moment?

Why are members here usually so happy to question the narrative on T2 and weight loss suddenly so accepting of the "norm" that any attempt to present a different point of view gets attacked?

I've simply presented alternative views from a significant number of smart people.
If members don't like it then they can simply ignore my rantings.

The stats that are there simply do not support the narratives that we are being sold.
So maybe its not the stats but the stories that are wrong.
I don’t agree with your point of view but I am interested in it and how you arrive at it. It’s easy to see only those things that confirm a point of view already held. If nothing else it helps me understand why I hold my view, and makes me question it. That’s never a bad thing and we will never all agree. Just because we don’t agree on all you say doesn’t mean we agree on all the press say either. In moments of fear and panic reading an opposing view can shed a ray of light (today I found my region has one of the lowest /million rates in the U.K. and boy that helps!)

And you’re right about the fact that people having the convictions in their views brought many of us to the point we’re at with type 2 and diet. Doesn’t mean it applies to everything.