Covid/Coronavirus and diabetes - the numbers
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Yes and (strangely) no. The eventual total excess deaths will also show collateral damage.
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3348
I’m not an epidemiologist, nor an expert on transmission of infectious diseases. At the weekend I read about the GB Declaration and was intrigued, especially when it appeared to ‘disappear’ from google for a while. Why I asked? Presumably google thought this was false news? It’s returned now, so people can have a reasoned debate.
Then I listened to an infectious diseases podcast condemn the Declaration, saying it is based on the assumption that if we let COVID-19 run, that we will reach herd immunity, and warned that this premise was a fallacy. It is not certain that we would reach herd immunity, she reasoned, and on the way there would be a massive explosion in deaths, let alone the miseries of long COVID (60000 people in the UK may have had or have got long COVID). Another problem is that other coronaviruses don’t confer immunity for very long, meaning the disease can potentially be caught again, and we have already seen a few confirmed cases of that.
As I say I’m not an expert, but I think we have to be very careful about reasoning that we should let such a terrible disease run. I cant remember where to find the podcast that I mentioned, but here is the gist of the counter argument. It’s good to debate. I just don’t think we know enough about the disease yet. A few days ago Time magazine were highly critical of Sweden’s attempt at herd immunity and called it a disaster.
https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/view/experts-forcefully-push-back-on-barrington-declaration
[URL]https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/[/URL]
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...toms-that-move-around-the-body-study-12104010
bulkbiker
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Odd that they don't start the graph from the start of the year where deaths were about 5k down on the average pre COVID in the first 11 weeks.
stu60
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There has been a lot of censorship / decrying of epidemiologists, doctors and the like who have been speaking out against government policy, and we get things like the majority of scientist say/ agree in the MSM not unlike climate change, when in reality the majority do not agree. There are a couple of good articles on spiked https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/10/12/why-has-google-censored-the-great-barrington-declaration/. and https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/10/09/lockdown-is-a-terrible-experiment/. One interesting thing I picked up on from the Event 201 pandemic videos was that they were discussing controlling all areas of media to only allow their narrative, maybe google had a representative there. I'll just give that old tin hat of mine another polish!
NicoleC1971
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Not an expert either and it is hard in a climate of ongoing fear to know which narrative to believe though I am inclined towards the data based approach rather than the bad models (Ferguson as out by a factor of 12) .Still there seems to be a concerted effort to set up a straw man around the Great Barrington 1) that this is a 'let it rip' approach but its not 2) That herd immunity is impossible when only 10% population are anti body positive (takes no account of t cell immunity which is believed to be much more prevalent 3) that suppression of the virus is the only way pending pharmaceutical immunity - in order to believe this you have to contend with the Swedes who merely followed the existing 2019 WHO guidance on pandemic management but did admit to seeding the infection into their care large care homes just like we did. Sweden has ended up very much mid table in the deaths per million but without the massive collateral damage so it is a good 'control' for the space and hands interventions .
Interestingly the counter veiling narrative is called the John Snow Declaration after the first successful public health control of an infectious disease (cholera). If you take out the side burns he looks rather like Matt Hancock !
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Snow
Re lasting immunity (rare cases of re infection ) doesn't that mean that a vaccine can never work?
Re Long covid - post viral syndrome is a thing not unique to Covid M.E/Yuppy flu as it is known. Seems to be being touted to make younger people take the virus seriously IMO?
Wide Covid is thing too - where you eat too many biscuits whilst in quarantine!
@NicoleC1971 you made me chuckle. OMG, John Snow does look like Matt Hancock! I wonder if they’re related?
I think I caught Wide COVID over the summer, which left me with a nasty case of post-weight-gain-itis. The only cure is to go cold (low carb) turkey with the support of a diabetic forum. I’m told that recovery may be possible in time, but only within the confines of a therapeutic community, otherwise sufferers relapse.
Thanks for enlightening me about the t-cell immunity.
Yes the vaccine may need more than one dose to achieve its effect, and so it may be like the flu jab where we need annual or perhaps bi-annual? shots. Probably a pharma company’s dream. Adjuvants may make the vaccine act stronger and last longer.
From what I’ve read, long COVID overlaps in some ways with ME, but potentially with additional damage to the lungs, heart etc, with more serious physical, psychological and neurological consequences. Not that ME is a picnic either, as Jennifer Brea fabulously explained
https://www.ted.com/talks/jennifer_..._a_disease_doctors_can_t_diagnose?language=en
I think I caught Wide COVID over the summer, which left me with a nasty case of post-weight-gain-itis. The only cure is to go cold (low carb) turkey with the support of a diabetic forum. I’m told that recovery may be possible in time, but only within the confines of a therapeutic community, otherwise sufferers relapse.
Thanks for enlightening me about the t-cell immunity.
Yes the vaccine may need more than one dose to achieve its effect, and so it may be like the flu jab where we need annual or perhaps bi-annual? shots. Probably a pharma company’s dream. Adjuvants may make the vaccine act stronger and last longer.
From what I’ve read, long COVID overlaps in some ways with ME, but potentially with additional damage to the lungs, heart etc, with more serious physical, psychological and neurological consequences. Not that ME is a picnic either, as Jennifer Brea fabulously explained
https://www.ted.com/talks/jennifer_..._a_disease_doctors_can_t_diagnose?language=en
What you have read about long covid is what I am experiencing. It is much worse than ME as it affects me in so many ways just as you say in your post.
@zand I’m very sorry to hear about your long COVID. I was chatting to someone earlier and apparently the NHS are setting up online support and nationwide rehabilitation programmes for long COVID sufferers, so there appears to be help coming. They’re learning much more about the consequences of COVID, and starting to differentiate syndromes, which opens up the possibility of new ways to help.
https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/10/nhs-to-offer-long-covid-help/
https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/07/nhs-to-launch-ground-breaking-online-covid-19-rehab-service/
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...toms-that-move-around-the-body-study-12104010
https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/10/nhs-to-offer-long-covid-help/
https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/07/nhs-to-launch-ground-breaking-online-covid-19-rehab-service/
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...toms-that-move-around-the-body-study-12104010
Lamont D
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I had to pay a visit to the town centre today.
The bus was packed.
In my area the number of deaths are a quarter of the country's deaths in the past week.
I was truly amazed at how many people were out shopping, how many people were without masks, how many shops were still open!
I live in the north in a tier three zone, our covid wards in my county have increased from very few in September to nearly full now!
I am beginning to think that the majority of people are totally fed up of this government's attempts to suppress the virus and are pleasing themselves.
The local playing field had several games on it today and the number of parents, onlookers watching, without masks and social distancing was alarming.
I don't care about scientists, politicians, facts or rumours, the economy, I know what this virus can do, and more importantly I know from personal experience that the way that the north has been treated is a scandal.
Those on furlough, an awful lot of those on minimum wage, or living wage (ha!) As the government is telling us. They are on a third less than minimum wage. There are already too many food banks that can't cope with the demands caused by what has happened this year. Never mind the austerity measures that lead to us being totally unprepared for this covid.
I knew in January about the virus and how bad it was!
Everyone keeps saying that we need to get back to normal.
Smell the roses and wake up!
Until we get a true reliable vaccine, there cannot be normal. It's now too late.
The country cannot cope with the number of those infected, the NHS will be overwhelmed, cannot cope with the numbers of unemployment, cannot cope with the number of child poverty, cannot cope with the debt and the local councils will not be able to pay for local services.
The way the country is run will be under scrutiny, this overpopulated island is about to sink into ruin.
I don't believe the opposition can do anything about it or would have changed much except the contracts for the track, trace, isolate.
I can't see a decent future for our kids, or is it my depression?
But, we need to get rid of this lot of useless government ministers.
I'm sick of them telling us how well they are doing and dismissing any criticism, having no accountability, and still getting it so wrong, when even their own scientists telling them they are going to cause more deaths and hardship to the population.
Or maybe that is the intention?
With brexit and covid, no wonder the percentage of Scots, who are supporting a break up of the union is growing. We are heading back to the Victorian era!
Maybe that is the intention?
The balance of power between north and south and those in between has to be sorted.
The balance of rich and poor and the distribution of the economy and how is spent has to sorted.
There are so many problems with this country and how things are done.
We need to get through this winter, and we need to protect the vulnerable, we need to protect our children's education and the most important is keeping as many businesses open and creating the wealth to make sure we have jobs when this virus is under control. Without doing the things that need doing it is a downward spiral to disaster!
Keep safe, keep well.
The bus was packed.
In my area the number of deaths are a quarter of the country's deaths in the past week.
I was truly amazed at how many people were out shopping, how many people were without masks, how many shops were still open!
I live in the north in a tier three zone, our covid wards in my county have increased from very few in September to nearly full now!
I am beginning to think that the majority of people are totally fed up of this government's attempts to suppress the virus and are pleasing themselves.
The local playing field had several games on it today and the number of parents, onlookers watching, without masks and social distancing was alarming.
I don't care about scientists, politicians, facts or rumours, the economy, I know what this virus can do, and more importantly I know from personal experience that the way that the north has been treated is a scandal.
Those on furlough, an awful lot of those on minimum wage, or living wage (ha!) As the government is telling us. They are on a third less than minimum wage. There are already too many food banks that can't cope with the demands caused by what has happened this year. Never mind the austerity measures that lead to us being totally unprepared for this covid.
I knew in January about the virus and how bad it was!
Everyone keeps saying that we need to get back to normal.
Smell the roses and wake up!
Until we get a true reliable vaccine, there cannot be normal. It's now too late.
The country cannot cope with the number of those infected, the NHS will be overwhelmed, cannot cope with the numbers of unemployment, cannot cope with the number of child poverty, cannot cope with the debt and the local councils will not be able to pay for local services.
The way the country is run will be under scrutiny, this overpopulated island is about to sink into ruin.
I don't believe the opposition can do anything about it or would have changed much except the contracts for the track, trace, isolate.
I can't see a decent future for our kids, or is it my depression?
But, we need to get rid of this lot of useless government ministers.
I'm sick of them telling us how well they are doing and dismissing any criticism, having no accountability, and still getting it so wrong, when even their own scientists telling them they are going to cause more deaths and hardship to the population.
Or maybe that is the intention?
With brexit and covid, no wonder the percentage of Scots, who are supporting a break up of the union is growing. We are heading back to the Victorian era!
Maybe that is the intention?
The balance of power between north and south and those in between has to be sorted.
The balance of rich and poor and the distribution of the economy and how is spent has to sorted.
There are so many problems with this country and how things are done.
We need to get through this winter, and we need to protect the vulnerable, we need to protect our children's education and the most important is keeping as many businesses open and creating the wealth to make sure we have jobs when this virus is under control. Without doing the things that need doing it is a downward spiral to disaster!
Keep safe, keep well.
Yes me too. I was saying we should lockdown back then. However I can see now that this would not have worked. People would have disregarded it and done as they pleased just as they are now, with cries of lack of civil liberties etc. I am not proud to be British and be part of such a selfish nation.
Mr_Pot
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I have kept to the all the rules throughout. Being retired, having an adequate pension and a large garden it has only been a inconvenience not really difficult. It is different for the young, for those struggling financially or for those with limited outside space. If, like me, you don't know anyone who has had the virus, let alone died from it then I can have sympathy with those that think they are missing out on life and have had enough. There seems to be the same feeling, particularly amongst the young in many other European countries not just the UK. Maybe it is selfish of the old and vulnerable to expect the rest of the population to make sacrifices on their behalf.
Sorry, I probably wasn't clear. I meant that excess mortality is the acid test, whatever the numbers may be. That is to say that if the numbers of excess deaths from all causes is markedly higher over a 12 month period than normal, then there is a case to be made for the 'rona being super serious. Otherwise not so much.
In my opinion.
Firstly if someone is young enough to be working and contributing to the economy and too young to receive a state pension then surely they aren't old? If they were they would receive an Old Age Pension? So the over 50s have a right to a voice just as much as the young.
Secondly, the 'why should I?' attitude isn't confined to the young, and indeed many young people are behaving responsibly.
Thirdly, hopefully, the young will become old themselves one day. They may well find that, like me, inside they still feel young and also like me don't want to be sent to an early grave.
If we had locked down early (ie Mid January), (like New Zealand) then we could have remained locked down until there were no cases and then opened up fully. Complete lockdown followed by completely open, except for strict quarantine for anyone coming into the country. OK lorry drivers would have needed to quarantine too and that could have been a problem to sort out, but a minor one compared to what we have now. This would have benefitted the young as well as the old and businesses could have reopened without having to continuously adapt to fit ever changing rules. It would have saved lives, but also perhaps more importantly, saved jobs and the economy. Local mini lockdowns to follow whenever a new case sneaked back in. When I voiced these opinions back in January almost everyone I spoke to said it would cost too much financially. Yeh, right, a fraction of the cost of these ineffective half measures we have endured for 7 months.
I live in the South West. The infection rate and death rate here have remained the lowest in the country. I personally know 13 people who have had the virus. This includes 2 families of 4, and 2 in another household together with 3 single household cases- so 6 households who caught the virus separately from one another. One of these people died, another 3 have Long Covid.
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I don't understand how or why you would consider all causes if the numbers include people who haven't been infected but died from (say) cancer simply because they couldn't get treatment.
For me, it muddies the waters somewhat.
Mr_Pot
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New Zealand went into lockdown on the 25th March about the same time as the UK.
They have done very well but they do have the advantage of being 2,500 miles from their nearest neighbour, and having a population density of 15 per sq km rather than the UK's 275.
In my mind it's fairly straightforward. If, over a substantial time period, there is no excess mortality from any cause, then there couldn't have been an especially serious and life threatening virus sweeping the globe. If there were, all-cause mortality numbers would be significantly higher. Interestingly, data shows that almost no one (relative to normal) has died of influenza during the COVID period, suggesting conflation between the two. Make of that what you will.
Of course that's not to undermine the gravity of illness and death that has taken place so far, but unfortunately that is nothing new in the circle of life. In the end, raw mortality data (that which is not spun) does not support the idea that there is a very deadly virus taking lives left & right. I appreciate that others will disagree, as is their prerogative.
I also understand that some will make a counter-argument that lockdowns and other measures have kept the numbers down. That may be true to an extent, but data shows that the curve was on the way down before we even entered our first lockdown, so evidence for that hypothesis is fairly insubstantial. Again, anyone is entitled to disagree.
Oh for goodness sake. Yes I know that. I meant early on in the epidemic, NZ's epidemic started after ours, so they locked down earlier than us relatively speaking. I tried to make this clear my putting 2 sets of parentheses, not just one. OK so I expressed myself badly, but do you know what? If you had had the virus maybe you would be struggling with communication too. I spent a few weeks not being able to respond coherently to loved ones. I could speak OK, but my brain and mouth didn't work well together. As another poster said recently... 'You know what, I give up. I keep making stupid mistakes anyway, it seems.'
bulkbiker
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And of course have built up precisely zero immunity.. if it ever gets a hold there (as it has been endemic here in the UK since late 2019) then they will be very seriously impacted indeed. See if Jacinda is quite so smug then..
