We’re after a golden bullet, I don’t believe a vaccine is one yet. The tests done so far prove that it won’t do us any (much) damage but they haven’t convinced me that 70 – 90% is good enough. They have tested healthy people, including some over 70s, of course they had to start there, but the healthy are not the vulnerable. One of the stipulations of volunteering for the Oxford trial is that you have to be healthy.
Healthy people under 60 have a tiny chance of dying, especially now as treatment has improved.
I think that until a vaccine is sufficiently tested on every age-group with a variety of adverse health conditions, we don’t know enough. That’s just my opinion (or is it?).
I believe, from what I have heard and read by those I consider to be informed, that there already is a golden bullet, and that is the virus itself. Back in March / April scientists were predicting that the course of the pandemic would follow a typical course and follow a classic profile. Huge initial spike, fast decrease into a children’s slide, second bump (where we are now in winter as predicted) then fade away to the background. The golden bullet is the natural decline of the virus over time, and probably not that long.
(Reporting of testing and deaths is a shambles in my opinion anyway. ‘Cases’ are not infections and deaths reported ‘within 28 days of a positive test’ is a complete misrepresentation of deaths directly caused by covid 19).
The sars-cov-2 pandemic (worldwide) which became an epidemic (localized) will become endemic. The virus will always be here, like the common cold and flus.
Regarding the vaccines there are still too many questions. For example:
Who to vaccinate? Some VERY difficult decisions will have to be made.
Do we start with my Aunt Maude (generic) because she is the most important? What about Uncle Frank across the road, he’s only 3 years older and not too poorly yet, doesn’t he deserve another few months / a year?
Do we start with the over 70s, 72s, 75s, 80s or everyone?
People with stage 4 lung cancer, advanced heart-disease, badly controlled diabetes, obese people (crikey, best not go there)?
What about people who refuse to take the vaccine? Can we force them to take it? Or, if not will they have to wear a flashing danger sign?
Do we send the vulnerable and elderly out shopping with 90 / 80 / 70% vaccine success rate? They will be exposed to 80% of the population who have not been vaccinated. And what about those ‘in their prime’ who have been vaccinated, do we know that they are totally non-infectious or just 90% or 70% perhaps?
There are numerous reasons why I have a distrust of the establishment’s response at the start and ongoing. I came across another yesterday, one that makes me question why we have followed the course we have……
In 2019 WHO (World Health Organisation) guidelines said contact tracing was NOT recommended where virus is established because by the time the results come through and things are chased down a virus is already over the horizon.
(Perhaps with an island nation where it’s hardy arrived?? Like New Zealand for example who reacted early enough, having seen other countries struggles.)
Also, WHO said that quarantine of exposed individuals was NOT recommended because it makes no discernible difference.
In 2019 they unsurprisingly never mentioned nation-wide lockdowns, presumably because it would have been just too absurd to do so. In fact, as far as I know China invented the lockdown. The rest of the world, instead of following advice that the WHO hadn’t even contemplated, followed China. Ultimately lockdowns and mask-wearing make very little difference.
Just at the moment all the talk, or the vast majority of media talk anyway, is about Christmas. It’s indicative of our response to the crisis that decisions on our long-term future, that of our elderly, vulnerable and everybody else, is being influenced by the period of a week. It’s quite convenient in a way because it deflects from the real issues, life and death, science-based research and response. Not that we’ve followed the genuine science to this point anyway. And before I’m accused of lack of compassion, yes, I’d love to spend time with my grandkids.
My opinions by the way are despite me having vascular disease and (well controlled) T2. Which is partly why my thoughts turn to the future……
I think that we need to focus away from short-termism. From what I’ve read and heard recently (the ideas are out there if you look), we need to look closely at long-term metabolic health. I understand it plays a large part in not just T2 diabetes but cancers, cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease etc. etc. Severe reaction to covid 19 is exacerbated by poor metabolic health. As a quarter of the UK is obese, that perhaps is a good place to start. How many of those who have died were, at least in part, sadly responsible for their own demise? Even if they weren’t aware of the fact. Hopefully next time a nasty new virus arrives, we’ll be better prepared both individually and nationally.
There, I haven’t insulted anybody.