It is quite possible that we are at the start of the second wave, hence the low death rate until the exponential growth in infection reaches critical point again.
It's also worth bearing in mind that the way deaths in are calculated and included changed 4 weeks ago.
I wonder why deaths in care homes are down?
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Would be funny if wasn't so sad.
Note the words 'worst case scenario' ! Rather like Neil Ferguson's 500,000 UK and 50,000 Sweden deaths neither of which came to pass.
I hope we have learned that the aged are extremely vulnerable in these settings and are therefore protecting them from this and other viruses. Those that have survived may simply be the strongest of the bunch?
However as we go into the Winter upper respiratory season there are those that are left susceptible to
whatever bug comes in (most people needing this care have a life expectancy of a further 2 years).
So it is sad but if we look at it from a perspective over a number of years our excess death rate for this year is still no greater than it has been in some bad flu years in spite of the vaccine for the latter eg, year 2000
My grandma is in one of those places and is currently locked down due to a couple of cases of Covid in the staff. She is 94. I can't ask her but I wonder how many of those residents might swap living in lockdown til next Spring and beyond versus taking the risk of illness and death alongside seeing their families again?